Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

cherryghost

I was more interested in the potential block that seems to have popped up out of nowhere

dexter647

It will probably be gone on the next run..nice to see though:)

maquiladora

dexter647 wrote: »

It will probably be gone on the next run..nice to see though:)

It was a massive outlier. It will almost certainly be gone on the 18Z. But FI is FI.

MiNdGaM3

Ye mean this block?

Wolfe_IRE

The GFS model, one of the primary models used for medium/long range weather forecasting, for Friday 26 October brings bitingly cold northerly winds across Ireland and wintry showers to high ground, particularly in the northern half of the country. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index indicates a negative outlook for the same period, suggesting that colder air over the Arctic will seep south.

The ECM model, however, has the northerly plunge affecting Scandinavia.
That said, the winter 2012-13 model watching has begun in earnest.
The attached GFS combo image features precipitation type (top left), upper air/1500m temperatures (top right), air pressure (bottom left), and the jetstream (bottom right). All images by www.meteociel.fr.

kstand

Yep Wolfe, sure got going in the last couple of days. Bring it on.

maquiladora

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

The GFS model, one of the primary models used for medium/long range weather forecasting, for Friday 26 October brings bitingly cold northerly winds across Ireland and wintry showers to high ground, particularly in the northern half of the country. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index indicates a negative outlook for the same period, suggesting that colder air over the Arctic will seep south.

The ECM model, however, has the northerly plunge affecting Scandinavia.
That said, the winter 2012-13 model watching has begun in earnest.
The attached GFS combo image features precipitation type (top left), upper air/1500m temperatures (top right), air pressure (bottom left), and the jetstream (bottom right). All images by www.meteociel.fr.

I know this is the FI thread so it doesn't really matter that much, but those charts aren't actually from the GFS operational run. That is the GFS control run, which is the same data but run at half the resolution, so it will often end up with totally different output to the main GFS run the further along you get. If you notice in the top right of the images: 'Ensemble GEFS (Run de controle)'.

Meteociel can be hard to navigate sometimes, if you don't speak French! This is where you find the operational GFS run :
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

The 06Z GFS actually has +4 uppers over Ireland whereas the Control has -4 at the same point (T216).
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=1

Hope that helps.

Iancar29

CFS deserves a medal if it gets this right

Iancar29 wrote: »

Back to my Nice relaxing SUnday evening... oh and back into Rant away with some fun charts

Mesa likes trends

Frosty Halloween anyone?

Su Campu

The GFS is well known for overdoing cold outbreaks so something to keep in mind when comparing it to the ECMWF.

Iancar29

12 z rolling out now...

cherryghost

Annnnnd it's gone

Iancar29

cherryghost wrote: »

Annnnnd it's gone

? ? ?



Ehhh Strong ridge over Greenland and strong trough over Scandi... its by all means still there ... :P

cherryghost

Sorry, I meant the bitter cold coming in from our east. Seems like it's a non-starter.

But yes, you are right. The Greenland high is stronger than it was on the last run.

Iancar29

More of a strong northerly now but i like it ! and starts at +156 hrs too :pac:

srmambo

850HPA 00z charts show a strong northerly blast.

Unfortunately its found at +240 hours.

kstand

Signs are there though, even if it is out in FI.

cherryghost

A very slight agreement with ECM at 240 also, though the cold airmass is about 400 miles further east.

The fact that there's even a resemblance of an agreement between two models can only be a good thing :P

Harps

Except its October so any snow that falls would immediately turn to a slushy mess!

ECMWF still showing some nice warm weather next week and lasting right out to 240h this morning

cherryghost

Ah well that was quick. Complete flip on its head from 12Z.

Speak Now

Harps wrote: »

Except its October so any snow that falls would immediately turn to a slushy mess!

ECMWF still showing some nice warm weather next week and lasting right out to 240h this morning

Now that would be sweet

Tom Cruises Left Nut

CFS beast from the east ? ha

maquiladora

A juicy teaser at the end of FI on the 12Z ECM. Pity it doesn't go one more frame. :P

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

A juicy teaser at the end of FI on the 12Z ECM. Pity it doesn't go one more frame. :P

How did I miss that !! :pac:

maquiladora

-10 uppers just touching Scotland at 150 hours on the 06Z GFS. Not even far into FI at this stage.

Iancar29

Not bad for the end of October alright..

Iancar29

Grauple anyone? :pac: :pac: :pac:

patneve2

impressive 06z run, not because it shows cold air arriving but because it actually seems to stick around for a good while. We'll all have a better idea on sunday...

maquiladora

-8 uppers into Northern Ireland at 150 hours on the 12Z GFS. Nice to see in the middle of October.

maquiladora

12Z UKMO at 144.

kstand

Looks like the first blast of winter is less than a week away. Very impressive run.