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Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13
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maquiladora wrote: »If yer bitin yer nails on October 19th you'll have no fingers left by Christmas Ian.
Sure... theyll be frost bitten by then anyways!... :rolleyes: :pac:0 -
Just for fun, this evening's ECMWF 186hr (27th) forecast pattern for the greater NE Atlantic region is not overly dissimilar that which brought a brief smathering of snow to some central and northern areas on the morning of October 29th 2008.
27th Oct forecast chart:
29th Oct 2008:
(posted in wrong thread a few mins ago)0 -
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Bit of a hold back from this run but im still happy with it considering its the 18z .
It's over 120 hours away so will chop and change with every run anyway. Interesting early one to follow, but I'm not expecting anything really for us even if it does come off.
0Z ECM and UKMO will be interesting in the morning. 0 -
maquiladora wrote: »It's over 120 hours away so will chop and change with every run anyway. Interesting early one to follow, but I'm not expecting anything really for us even if it does come off.
0Z ECM and UKMO will be interesting in the morning.
oh god ye ill be shocked to see anything come down this far this early, im looking out for northern areas, Tyler Collins may have his first snow chase of the season! :pac:
Sadly im in work 2moro so wont be able to follow in with the fun only sneaking in for a min on my phone 0 -
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »I thought immediately of this (sigh) after looking at the charts a few mins ago, shame it's months too early :mad: It wouldn't surprise if this winter will be as dismal as the last one.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2010/brack/bracka20101216.gif
Straight from the Fram Strait...the Greenland Express!
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maquiladora wrote: »FI is looking interesting on this run...
GEM, UKMO and ECM all looking fairly similar at 144hrs, GFS not too far off either. What happens afterwards is interesting though, the low which initially looked like pushing into Scandanavia takes a swing south westwards towards the UK instead. A nice cold Halloween could be on the cards 0 -
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A shame its happening 2 months too early, should still be an interesting setup but obviously it wont deliver in the same way as if it was late December
Its not really 2 months too early- this is the type of pattern we need to setup as we start winter, Disrupted Pv and lots of Northern blocking is a good sign now and who knows, if it continues the pv may never get to set up properly. Im quite surprised at the charts at the moment- not typical at all.
We have most of the building blocks in place for a great winter (for Cold), all we need is the strat to play ball a bit more and we will be sorted! (strat isnt looking bad anyway)
Dan 0 -
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I have to disagree with you. In Dec '10 we all thought we were in for a '47 or '63 didn't we. Even when the thaw came just after xmas I thought the cold would return but it didn't. Things don't work out the way we want most of the time unfortunately.Its not really 2 months too early- this is the type of pattern we need to setup as we start winter, Disrupted Pv and lots of Northern blocking is a good sign now and who knows, if it continues the pv may never get to set up properly. Im quite surprised at the charts at the moment- not typical at all.
We have most of the building blocks in place for a great winter (for Cold), all we need is the strat to play ball a bit more and we will be sorted! (strat isnt looking bad anyway)
Dan
This is what we ended up with Jan, it must have been 12-14c on this day.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20110116.gif0 -
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »I have to disagree with you. In Dec '10 we all thought we were in for a '47 or '63 didn't we. Even when the thaw came just after xmas I thought the cold would return but it didn't. Things don't work out the way we want most of the time unfortunately.
This is what we ended up with Jan, it must have been 12-14c on this day.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20110116.gif
End of November/December 2010 was an excellent spell of Cold weather that very few would be dissapointed with- If you are saying things arent looking good because we may end up with a spell like December 2010 then you're expectations are way way too high. In alot of ways 1947 was similar- the cold didnt start properly til the end of January- meaning only about 5 weeks of exceptional cold/snow, yes march was also baltic but it isnt a winter month. We almost achieved 5 weeks of solid cold in 2010 with only the second week in December being remotely normal. 1947 definitley beats 2010 for snow depths though.
1963 was in a different class altogether when it comes to extreme Cold- only 2 winters colder In the UK in the past 300 years! Ireland was under very similar conditions.
I think I speak for almost everyone on this forum when I say a repeat of November/December 2010 would be very welcome!
Dan 0 -
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I like the snow prediction for the 06Z GFS charts for 264 hours
Wooo home from work! Finally can relax!
Roiiiight , I will be genuinely surprised to see any snow at low levels from current models . The 528 dam line is still too far to the east according to the gfs,
Any talk from uk papers or weather sites of snow will be mostly for only Scotland and northeastern england. NI might see some at low levels perhaps but nothing considerable... then again , ANY snow in October id imagine is considerable :rolleyes:
Still, i agree with Blizzard, best to see some cold at things shaping up for more chances of colder snaps further down the line .
Im looking forward to frosty , hopefully icy mornings with clear skies for some astro shots!
Off to make a nice cup of tea and then back for the 12z ..... so... who takes milk ? 0 -
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I just want to say that if we do get a cold spell this early I think there is the chance that we could end up with a mild and reasonably dry November, December and January in most parts and in February we might see some snow develop as these cold conditions seem reminiscent of those in October 2008 (I remember there being some pretty bad hail showers at that time).
Source: Met Eireann's past weather archives: http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/oct08_lores.pdf
Past weather patterns do not repeat eachother identicaly and at the same time of the year... what happened in 2008 has no bearing on what happens this winter...
Dan 0
![http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20110116.gif](denied:"http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20110116.gif"){kind=link}
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