Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

srmambo

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Past weather patterns do not repeat eachother identicaly and at the same time of the year... what happened in 2008 has no bearing on what happens this winter...




Dan

Sorry, I was just thinking that perhaps the fact that the weather that is being forecasted is similar to what has happened back in 2008 it means that our winter could be similar to 2009 in the sense that we get some late snow with some disruption.

BLIZZARD7

srmambo wrote: »

Sorry, I was just thinking that perhaps the fact that the weather that is being forecasted is similar to what has happened back in 2008 it means that our winter could be similar to 2009 in the sense that we get some late snow with some disruption.

Maybe it will be cold next weekend and beyond and then maybe we will get late snow too but that is nothing to do with the past- it dosent work like that.

Chaos theory means our weather is always changing and is very much unpredictable more than a few days out, the cold spell in october 08 did not cause the coldspell in Feb 09, like wise any coldspell we have in the next few weeks has nothing to do with the rest of the winter.





Dan

BLIZZARD7

UKMO 12Z Is Epic! GFS is good too but could be better.


12z UKMO +144HRS-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021





Dan

maquiladora

UKMO 144 chart is impressive.



GFS on the other hand is not impressive and at the same timeframe instead has the high slipping back southwest.



Your move ECM. :cool:

ninebeanrows

Hah That UKM would give real chance of some sleet/snow showers to low levels.

A Day 7 chart though unfortunately!

But a nice taster

ninebeanrows

We really have the core of the Arctic cold pool aimed right at us.

maquiladora

So here is the ECM at 144. More similar to the UKMO than the GFS. 168 could be interesting too.

BLIZZARD7

ECM 12z is brilliant for Cold with a nice greeny high at 144hrs and the cold flooding south west out of scandi!





Dan

maquiladora

Just discovered that the Weather Underground Wundermap has a snowfall layer for the ECM output.

Just putting this here for the laugh. :pac:

dexter647

^^^Sweet:).. move slightly to the left and i'm in business:D

Deep Easterly

Very long way off but tonight's ECMWF ensemble mean run is showing a fairly significant drop in pressure to our northwest towards the end of the month. If it played out I doubt it would mean any major stormy weather developing but might be something to keep an eye on for the time being anyways.



Hope springs eternal.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Very long way off but tonight's ECMWF ensemble mean run is showing a fairly significant drop in pressure to our northwest towards the end of the month. If it played out I doubt it would mean any major stormy weather developing but might be something to keep an eye on for the time being anyways.



Hope springs eternal.

A few GFS ensemble members showing that potential now too.

Iancar29

Daytime temps in the low single digits with a hard frost at night anyone???

Iancar29

And the snow risk ( @ 350m asl ) risk is still there on the 12z .

maquiladora

18Z GFS showing a cold blast reload early next week.

jimmy.d

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS showing a cold blast reload early next week.

nice if itcame off anything above the 528 dam line would be snow

catch.23

jimmy.d wrote: »

nice if itcame off anything above the 528 dam line would be snow

528 isn't a threshold for snow, snow at sea level at the 528 dam line would be rare.

Su Campu

catch.23 wrote: »

528 isn't a threshold for snow, snow at sea level at the 528 dam line would be rare.

I find that 522 dm and/or 1285 m 850-1000 hPa partial thickness are more reliable indicators for snow to sea level in Ireland.

jimmy.d

1.jimmy.d

Iancar29

This is an odd one?.... at first i was like woo! snow potential!

Then checked the usual parameter subspects and none of them are in line bar the dewpoint... even that is marginal in isolated areas... thoughts folks?

Wolfe_IRE

Dusting of snow on errigal, top of mournes etc. with sleety showers lower down in north and northeast later. some light scattered showers mostly of rain in east leinster.

tylercollins

9 days out..

MiNdGaM3

Just 7 days out

Nabber

With the sea track and it only being October. Sea level is just going to be cold and wet.

Not great weather. But a good way to start winter.

srmambo

Any cold weather is great. In my opinion if this winter is going to be filled with mild muck, I'd rather have this cold weather rather than just have nothing at all.

Nabber

The Atlantic is throwing up some beautiful weather charts both east and west Atlantic.

120h out


Can some one correct me.
Is that the Polar low tea bagging Ireland and UK?

Wolfe_IRE

end of tonight's run

pistolpetes11

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

end of tonight's run

It broke boards it was that good !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Best I can do from the CFS this morning !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Nice cold blast at +252 from the GFS