Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

BEASTERLY

A few interesting GEFS ensembles this morning:

The next few frames show this low drop south across Ireland and the UK.

tylercollins

Can you explain those 2 charts Beasterly? What sort of conditions would we expect?

BEASTERLY

tylercollins wrote: »

Can you explain those 2 charts Beasterly? What sort of conditions would we expect?

Well first of all they're not the operational run, they are indivisual members which evolve different possible scenarios, these are just two of 20.

The first chart depicts a mid-Atlantic block. Basically, the Atlantic come to a halt. In that chart we would see northerly winds, showers on the north coast, wintry over high ground. Upper air temperatures wouldn't be that low see as it's only mid November, along with modification of the sea it wouldn't be to dissimilar to this weekends weather, just drier and sunnier further south. The low dropping south would be bring more precip, and colder uppers. Would be a dream setup in January.

The second chart shows a scandi high joining up with a Greenland high. In that chart it is orientated so we don't really get its full influence, the nearby low gives us south-easterlies. Makes sure we stay wet and relatively mild. If the high was just orientated a little differently we would be looking at a full blown easterly, not far off 2010.

Obviously this FI, and worse still just a couple of GEFS members, very close to a non-existent chance of it verifying. Saying that, ECM, GFS and UKMO have been toying with the idea of a Scandinavian high setting up post 120/144 hours. This could give us the all illusive Easterly we all crave.

tylercollins

Thank you very much for taking the time to type that up!

Nabber

You have to go a long way into FI to see anything 'interesting'

Wicklow Weather

Boring Boring Boring feckin FI, nothing of interest, Boo bloody hooo!

Nabber

Ti's changing with each run. There is pattern coming out. Yesterday there was a high build up over UK/Irl now it's gone. Too much going on for the models to keep up. Same as it always is

Elmer Blooker

ECM snooze fest with low pressure never far from Iceland.
anyone know where there is wet paint so I can watch it dry?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif

Wolfe_IRE

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

ECM snooze fest with low pressure never far from Iceland.
anyone know where there is wet paint so I can watch it dry?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif

I think there is something interesting in that Elmer and I go back again to the matter of the ridging taking place to our west and Greenland, as well as over Europe. The positioning of the highs is fluctuating with each run bu the trend is for the jetstream to be shifted from its track over Ireland.

This would put Ireland in a much more favourable position to experience cold during the final week of the month.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

I think there is something interesting in that Elmer and I go back again to the matter of the ridging taking place to our west and Greenland, as well as over Europe. The positioning of the highs is fluctuating with each run bu the trend is for the jetstream to be shifted from its track over Ireland.

This would put Ireland in a much more favourable position to experience cold during the final week of the month.

I mush prefer those hemisphere charts, you get a much better idea of things. Also easier to see what the PV is doing

Iancar29

+ 1 ! ... where is the link for them?... i want to compare the Geo 500 heights of now with 2010

Speak Now

Not the view you want be here we were this days 2 years ago

Iancar29

Foundz them

November 7th 2012

A slight similarity i think with the location of the high pressures but the PV is more broken up into Russia this year and was more compact in 2010.



November 7th 2010



ANd here are those runs ... open them up in separate tabs to view them
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=1&mois=11&heure=0&jour=7&annee=2010

Thoughts anyone?

Nabber

Iancar29 wrote: »

+ 1 ! ... where is the link for them?... i want to compare the Geo 500 heights of now with 2010

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Try these

Sponge Bob

CIE Testing their new Snowplough Locomotive. Damned if it ain't half good at shifting snow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6acPX_00M9Q

nelly17

Coolest Job ever

Nabber

Iancar29 wrote: »

Thoughts anyone?

My thought on it would be that the AZ high is further north WEST in 2010 and higher at 1040, as opposed to 2012's 1030

None of the charts are entertaining any block to the westerly low systems. One rolls in after another. Still early days, winter has yet to start. In my opinion (which is not too well informed :cool:)We are unlikely to see Nov 2010 happen again this year.

Iancar29

ps.... take this run with a big piece of salt.... but if it keeps trending this way its a good sign

catch.23

tylercollins

I know it's FI but **** yeah!

srmambo

tylercollins wrote: »

I know it's FI but **** yeah!

And its not a CFS chart, although changes can still occur in the GFS ensemble charts

davidsr20

Guys I really need to ask what is fantasy island or is it just pretend charts? If so what for?

Harps

Not sure where the name came from but basically its just taken to be any forecast outside the realistic time frame. Usually a week or more in the future where accuracy is low so every now and again you get some imaginative solutions showing up that are 95% unlikely to happen but look nice for threads like this!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys I really need to ask what is fantasy island or is it just pretend charts? If so what for?

It is a term for the charts out beyond a certain period, generally 5 days I would say.

These charts will chop and change and can give some lovely eye candy. You can watch them for trends and then we just hope that the charts stay and come into the reliable timeframe.

Its all part of the fun !

Sponge Bob

I'd say more like 10 days out+ . This thread is designed to catch idiot charts that are unlikely to ever happen...but which may look fabulous with -27c forecast in Dublin on the 10th of December etc etc.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I'd say more like 10 days out+ . This thread is designed to catch idiot charts that are unlikely to ever happen...but which may look fabulous with -27c forecast in Dublin on the 10th of December etc etc.

Though at times it has been 2 days :pac:

BEASTERLY

It'll do I suppose...

catch.23

catch.23

Shame it's so far out, it's the GEFS, and it only gets to -6 850's . . but we can still dream :P

Nabber

Forum has gone very quiet

GFS trying to develop a Scandi High..