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October 2012 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    10.2 .... 18.8 .... -2.0 .... 115 .... 90 .... 50.0


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    #33
    akura
    Closed Accounts Posts: 497 ✭✭akura


    9.8....17.2....-2.9....104%....98....15.7mm


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    #34
    nilhg
    Registered Users Posts: 5,145 ✭✭✭nilhg


    10.3 .... 21 .... -2.1 .... 95 .... 105 .... 34


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    #35
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,362 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    10....18..-3....120....100.....20.0


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    #36
    traecy1
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭traecy1


    10.1....18.2....-2.2....115....100....22.4mm


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    #37
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,989 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    9.7.... 21.2....-2.6....97....105....21.2


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    #38
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    10.5 .... 17.8 .... -2.5 .... 105 .... 105 .... 31.0


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    #39
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    9.9 .... 17.8 .... -2.2 .... 110 .... 080 .... 27.5


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    #40
    torrential1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39 ✭torrential1


    9.2 18.3 -3.9 85%rain 110%sun 18.7mm

    thinking along the lines of a cool but mainly dry October...


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    #41
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users Posts: 343 ✭✭kindredspirit


    10.4 ... 17.5 ... -2.5 ... 90 ... 100 ... 33

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



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    #42
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 376 ✭✭waterways


    9.8 .... 17.3 .... -2.0 .... 121 .... 96 .... 24.3


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    #43
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    9.6 ... 16.5 ... -1.8 ... 79 ... 95 ... 19.9


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for those entries, looks fairly complete ... now we are into "late" penalty time, just a small bite for really good forecasts. Plenty of time to enter yet.


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    #45
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    10.1... 16.6 ... -2.1 ... 99 ... 104 ... 22

    Just chancing my arm. First month I have missed since I started 'playing'.


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sorry, gang, I forgot to make a table of entries. Will get at that soon.

    Homolumo, you're basically in about the same position as Iancar and 200motels who got a special one-time exemption from being time-disqualified, and you're not in the top ten which helps me to be merciful because I know there won't be vast outrage. Also the bonus question is pretty much unsettled with few clues available.

    In fact there won't be any outrage, but the deal for way late entries is, ten per cent penalty over 40 (it goes down every day).

    Okay then, within the next 3-4 hours I should be able to conjure up a table of entries.


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    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    October 2012 forecast contest entries
    _________________________________________


    FORECASTER .................. IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... 24h
    _________________________________________________________________

    200motels ..................... 10.9 .... 18.2 .... -1.5 .... 149 .... 084 .... 18.9
    okla ............................. 10.6 .... 18.6 .... -1.7 .... 110 .... 095 .... 21.3
    MiNdGaM3 ..................... 10.5 .... 17.8 .... -2.5 .... 105 .... 105 .... 31.0
    catch.23 ....................... 10.5 .... 18.5 .... -1.0 .... 095 .... 090 .... 38.5
    Hammer Archer .............. 10.5 .... 18.1 .... -3.1 .... 115 .... 095 .... 28.6
    MiNdGaM3 ..................... 10.5 .... 17.8 .... -2.5 .... 105 .... 105 .... 31.0
    talkabout ...................... 10.4 .... 17.4 .... -2.4 .... 110 .... 095 .... 19.9
    kindredspirit ................... 10.4 .... 17.5 .... -2.5 .... 090 .... 100 .... 33.0
    M.T. Cranium ................. 10.4 .... 20.2 .... -3.5 .... 115 .... 102 .... 38.8
    Strasser ....................... 10.4 .... 17.8 .... -3.6 .... 100 .... 100 .... 26.2
    Tae laidir ...................... 10.4 .... 17.0 ...... 0.5 .... 088 .... 115 .... 20.5
    jd ................................ 10.4 .... 17.5 .... -1.3 .... 092 .... 106 .... 26.5
    nilhg ............................ 10.3 .... 21.0 .... -2.1 .... 095 .... 105 .... 34.0
    jambofc ........................ 10.3 .... 17.4 .... -1.5 .... 135 .... 085 .... 19.5
    TURRICAN ..................... 10.2 .... 14.3 .... -3.5 .... 098 .... 102 .... 45.5
    Jerry Seinfeld ................. 10.2 .... 18.8 .... -2.0 .... 115 .... 090 .... 50.0
    dacogawa ..................... 10.2 .... 18.6 .... -3.0 .... 110 .... 100 .... 33.2
    cherryghost ................... 10.2 .... 17.1 .... -2.5 .... 095 .... 090 .... 16.2
    homolumo** .................. 10.1 .... 16.6 .... -2.1 .... 099 .... 104 .... 22.0
    delw ............................ 10.1 .... 16.5 .... -2.3 .... 117 .... 095 .... 25.5
    traecy1 ........................ 10.1 .... 18.2 .... -2.2 .... 115 .... 100 .... 22.4
    John mac ...................... 10.1 .... 18.9 .... -2.5 .... 101 .... 120 .... 32.1

    Con Sensus ................... 10.1 .... 17.8 .... -2.4 .... 101 .... 100 .... 27.0

    NIALL D ........................ 10.1 .... 16.1 .... -3.3 .... 103 .... 097 .... 22.5
    lostinashford .................. 10.0 .... 18.9 .... -1.8 .... 107 .... 098 .... 36.5
    rameire ......................... 10.0 .... 17.5 .... -2.5 .... 101 .... 094 .... 28.4
    dasa29 ......................... 10.0 .... 15.5 .... -3.0 .... 110 .... 090 .... 21.0
    Wolfe IRE ...................... 10.0 .... 17.9 .... -3.5 .... 120 .... 090 .... 33.0
    Rickylovesuall ................. 10.0 .... 18.0 .... -3.0 .... 120 .... 100 .... 20.0
    pauldry ......................... 10.0 .... 17.8 .... -2.8 .... 100 .... 100 .... 24.6
    Bsal .............................. 10.0 .... 15.9 .... -2.1 .... 111 .... 091 .... 19.5
    Harps ............................. 9.9 .... 17.8 .... -2.2 .... 110 .... 080 .... 27.5
    Joe Public ....................... 9.9 .... 16.9 .... -2.9 .... 120 .... 089 .... 29.9
    H2UMrsRobinson ................9.9 .... 19.6 .... -1.5 .... 090 .... 105 .... 41.5
    Lumi ............................... 9.9 .... 17.3 .... -3.1 .... 097 .... 095 .... 24.1
    Iancar29 ......................... 9.9 .... 19.2 .... -3.6 .... 088 .... 105 .... 29.0
    snowstreams ................... 9.9 .... 17.8 .... -1.5 .... 108 .... 090 .... 30.0
    waterways ...................... 9.8 .... 17.3 .... -2.0 .... 121 .... 096 .... 24.3
    akura ............................. 9.8 .... 17.2 .... -2.9 .... 104 .... 098 .... 15.7
    DOCARCH ........................ 9.7 .... 21.2 .... -2.6 .... 097 .... 105 .... 21.2
    Sponge Bob ..................... 9.6 .... 16.5 .... -1.8 .... 079 .... 095 .... 19.9
    mickger844posts .............. 9.5 .... 18.2 .... -3.0 .... 083 .... 101 .... 29.4
    Danno ............................ 9.5 .... 17.8 .... -4.6 .... 090 .... 135 .... 14.4
    torrential1 ....................... 9.2 .... 18.3 .... -3.9 .... 085 .... 110 .... 18.7
    _________________________________________________

    ** one-time ultra late, 10% pen if > 40
    (no other penalties)

    Good luck everyone ... the consensus is quite close to a normal October, I believe.


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    #48
    SeaFields
    Registered Users Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    I think you forgot me in the table MT :(:p
    SeaFields wrote: »
    10.8 .... 16.9 .... -2.0 .... 100 .... 70 .... 45.0


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    #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This is the updated table, sorry about that ... I had the right count but I somehow got Mindgame into the table twice (now that's fixed also). :o

    October 2012 forecast contest entries
    _________________________________________


    FORECASTER .................. IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... 24h
    _________________________________________________________________

    200motels ..................... 10.9 .... 18.2 .... -1.5 .... 149 .... 084 .... 18.9
    SeaFields ...................... 10.8 .... 16.9 .... -2.0 .... 100 .... 070 .... 45.0
    okla ............................. 10.6 .... 18.6 .... -1.7 .... 110 .... 095 .... 21.3
    MiNdGaM3 ..................... 10.5 .... 17.8 .... -2.5 .... 105 .... 105 .... 31.0
    catch.23 ....................... 10.5 .... 18.5 .... -1.0 .... 095 .... 090 .... 38.5
    Hammer Archer .............. 10.5 .... 18.1 .... -3.1 .... 115 .... 095 .... 28.6
    talkabout ...................... 10.4 .... 17.4 .... -2.4 .... 110 .... 095 .... 19.9
    kindredspirit ................... 10.4 .... 17.5 .... -2.5 .... 090 .... 100 .... 33.0
    M.T. Cranium ................. 10.4 .... 20.2 .... -3.5 .... 115 .... 102 .... 38.8
    Strasser ....................... 10.4 .... 17.8 .... -3.6 .... 100 .... 100 .... 26.2
    Tae laidir ...................... 10.4 .... 17.0 ...... 0.5 .... 088 .... 115 .... 20.5
    jd ................................ 10.4 .... 17.5 .... -1.3 .... 092 .... 106 .... 26.5
    nilhg ............................ 10.3 .... 21.0 .... -2.1 .... 095 .... 105 .... 34.0
    jambofc ........................ 10.3 .... 17.4 .... -1.5 .... 135 .... 085 .... 19.5
    TURRICAN ..................... 10.2 .... 14.3 .... -3.5 .... 098 .... 102 .... 45.5
    Jerry Seinfeld ................. 10.2 .... 18.8 .... -2.0 .... 115 .... 090 .... 50.0
    dacogawa ..................... 10.2 .... 18.6 .... -3.0 .... 110 .... 100 .... 33.2
    cherryghost ................... 10.2 .... 17.1 .... -2.5 .... 095 .... 090 .... 16.2
    homolumo** .................. 10.1 .... 16.6 .... -2.1 .... 099 .... 104 .... 22.0
    delw ............................ 10.1 .... 16.5 .... -2.3 .... 117 .... 095 .... 25.5
    traecy1 ........................ 10.1 .... 18.2 .... -2.2 .... 115 .... 100 .... 22.4

    Con Sensus ................... 10.1 .... 17.8 .... -2.4 .... 101 .... 100 .... 27.5

    John mac ...................... 10.1 .... 18.9 .... -2.5 .... 101 .... 120 .... 32.1
    NIALL D ........................ 10.1 .... 16.1 .... -3.3 .... 103 .... 097 .... 22.5
    lostinashford .................. 10.0 .... 18.9 .... -1.8 .... 107 .... 098 .... 36.5
    rameire ......................... 10.0 .... 17.5 .... -2.5 .... 101 .... 094 .... 28.4
    dasa29 ......................... 10.0 .... 15.5 .... -3.0 .... 110 .... 090 .... 21.0
    Wolfe IRE ...................... 10.0 .... 17.9 .... -3.5 .... 120 .... 090 .... 33.0
    Rickylovesuall ................. 10.0 .... 18.0 .... -3.0 .... 120 .... 100 .... 20.0
    pauldry ......................... 10.0 .... 17.8 .... -2.8 .... 100 .... 100 .... 24.6
    Bsal .............................. 10.0 .... 15.9 .... -2.1 .... 111 .... 091 .... 19.5
    Harps ............................. 9.9 .... 17.8 .... -2.2 .... 110 .... 080 .... 27.5
    Joe Public ....................... 9.9 .... 16.9 .... -2.9 .... 120 .... 089 .... 29.9
    H2UMrsRobinson ................9.9 .... 19.6 .... -1.5 .... 090 .... 105 .... 41.5
    Lumi ............................... 9.9 .... 17.3 .... -3.1 .... 097 .... 095 .... 24.1
    Iancar29 ......................... 9.9 .... 19.2 .... -3.6 .... 088 .... 105 .... 29.0
    snowstreams ................... 9.9 .... 17.8 .... -1.5 .... 108 .... 090 .... 30.0
    waterways ...................... 9.8 .... 17.3 .... -2.0 .... 121 .... 096 .... 24.3
    akura ............................. 9.8 .... 17.2 .... -2.9 .... 104 .... 098 .... 15.7
    DOCARCH ........................ 9.7 .... 21.2 .... -2.6 .... 097 .... 105 .... 21.2
    Sponge Bob ..................... 9.6 .... 16.5 .... -1.8 .... 079 .... 095 .... 19.9
    mickger844posts .............. 9.5 .... 18.2 .... -3.0 .... 083 .... 101 .... 29.4
    Danno ............................ 9.5 .... 17.8 .... -4.6 .... 090 .... 135 .... 14.4
    torrential1 ....................... 9.2 .... 18.3 .... -3.9 .... 085 .... 110 .... 18.7
    _________________________________________________

    ** penalty applies if >40


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    #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The Ag Report is currently not being updated, so I have looked at monthly data for the first eight days and found these stats:

    IMT is at 9.3 C

    PRC is lagging behind normal pace, I would estimate we are around 70%

    SUN appears to be near normal so far.

    There have been some overnight lows around -1 C but I don't think they will hold up for the month anyway.


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    #51
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Jeez its a cold October isnt it MT.

    In some of the last few Winters we didnt get frosts until late November.

    We have ad a couple already.

    Still think we will all get excited and after the cold October November and December will be milder.

    Rainfall figure very low here in the Northwest. Sunshine above normal in these parts and trees leaves Yellower than normal ;)


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    #52
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    pauldry wrote: »
    Jeez its a cold October isnt it MT.

    Still think we will all get excited and after the cold October November and December will be milder.

    I'll get particularly excited if it comes in bang on 9.6c after 2 shíte months of forecasting.. me.!


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    #53
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yup sponge. looks good for u alright.

    Looks good for lots though. Nobody went mad in their predictions.


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    #54
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    17.7 in Valentia yesterday will be hard to beat


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    #55
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Id say anyone who went high in the rainfall department will do well in the bonus .

    Today around 30mm and there is piles of rain promised in the next week to 10 days so this could be beaten yet.


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    #56
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The bonus scoring works by rank order and as we've settled into 40-45 contestants I have been scoring them in groups of four. So that means that the scores will be arranged in order of high to low forecasts (in mm) as soon as the value exceeds the average of 1st and 5th. Looking at the table that amount is 44.4 mm. You can pretty much expect a low score already if you went low, but the high range of bonus scores would remain somewhat in play.

    I will check all stations later for Thursday's totals -- my plan was to include all the new stations that report in "daily data" although not in "yesterday's weather" on the Met-E website. Gurteen and Mullingar probably saw the most but will check them all anyway.


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    #57
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I'll bet Mount Dillon is possibly the highest.

    EDIT.

    Cork Airport recorded 24.4mm ( and 6mm the previous night as the system came into Cork and the S/W before midnight)
    Gurteen 26.9mm
    Mullingar 25.6mm
    Ballyhaise 24.4mm


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    #58
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Just over 29mm in MT Dillon I think


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    #59
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    moorepark 34mm


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    #60
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So far Moorepark 34.3 mm then.


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    #61
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    All these extra stations are making competition predicting even more skillful.

    More extremes.:cool:


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