October 2012 Boards forecast contest

catch.23

pauldry wrote: »

All these extra stations are making competition predicting even more skillful. Guesswork

More extremes.:cool:

.

M.T. Cranium

The Ag Report has returned to service, so I should be able to update from my previous estimates tomorrow when the old estimate has expired from the seven-day Ag Report period. But as of today, the 14-day IMT was 8.8 C for the five stations and I can't see that changing very much all week. Rainfall is apparently running just a touch behind normal pace as of earlier today before this batch arrived, so one might assume we are close to normal once today's amounts are factored in. That is clearly heading upward now. Sunshine also appears to be keeping pace with normal values.

Iancar29

Is the September results up anywhere?

Speak Now

Iancar29 wrote: »

Is the September results up anywhere?

Here you go Ian

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056740549&page=5

pauldry

yesterday Claremorris had a daily average of 4.5C

Max 8.7c
Min 0.3c

Monthly Mean for this is now 7.9c.

Not going up any time soon either.

M.T. Cranium

The Ag Report indicated that the period 8-15 Oct had 102% of normal rainfall, which by my earlier estimate places the month at about 86% heading into the expected heavy rainfall period to come. Sunshine continued to be around the normal values. The IMT is not likely to leave the range of 8.5 to 8.9 for several days now with the expected temperature range close to that most of the time.

Sponge Bob

Nowhere broke 10mm yesterday bar Knock not sure whether this week will break 30mm average TBH

M.T. Cranium

It appears that the bonus question remains on 34.3 mm after yesterday's efforts which failed to break 30 mm at any station I could find anyway.

That includes "yesterday's weather" and daily data.

Despite all this recent rain, the monthly projection appears to be somewhat below normal at least for the stations used in the contest (eleven that appear in the monthly summary rainfall graphs). I estimate that as of today this figure stands at about 85%.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT now stands at 9.2 C and could add a bit before falling back on Friday and Saturday.

Rainfall in the past seven days hit 90% on the grid we use, and that leaves the month around 85 to 90 per cent of normal for the period, (or 65 to 70 per cent of the monthly totals if you like that measure better). I don't foresee quite enough rain to change this value much.

Sunshine for the past week appeared to break 110% from partial data and so the month is probably around that mark as well.

Could anyone suggest a bonus question for November, what's happening on the weekend of 10-11 Nov for example?

dacogawa

Ireland play South Africa at Lansdowne Road (some people call it the Aviva Stadium) at 5:30pm on the 10th if that will do ?

Speak Now

dacogawa wrote: »

Ireland play South Africa at Lansdowne Road (some people call it the Aviva Stadium) at 5:30pm on the 10th if that will do ?

What sport is that in?

dacogawa

Rugby (the sport for hooligans played by gentlemen )

Sponge Bob

The Temperature during the 11th Hour of the 11th day (and as reported in the 12z) in Mullingar.

waterways

The Irish Fly Fair and Angling Show takes place in Galway 10th-11th November with fly casting demonstrations outside.

M.T. Cranium

Not connected, but when does Ireland go back to standard time? This coming weekend? I think it has been extended here into November so we can see the onset of gloom another week to start our days. It is 0853 here and most of the ambient light seems to be reflection of street lights off puddles. Few if any contributions from various members of the solar system.

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not connected, but when does Ireland go back to standard time? This coming weekend? I think it has been extended here into November so we can see the onset of gloom another week to start our days. It is 0853 here and most of the ambient light seems to be reflection of street lights off puddles. Few if any contributions from various members of the solar system.

Back to GMT in the early hours on Sunday Morning M.T.

Sorry should have said Western European Time. Shaking off our Colonialism

(WET - how very appropiate :pac: )

M.T. Cranium

Perhaps you would have better luck with Irish Clock Equalization.

waterways

Casement had -2.6°C yesterday.
Saw yesterday in the latest reports at 8 am Gurteen, MT Dillon and Makree with -3°C , could have been colder earlier but don't know if they are reported in the Monthly Summary.

Su Campu

Gurteen had -3.5C yesterday

Rikand

Su Campu wrote: »

Gurteen had -3.5C yesterday

we dont want this one to count. The -3's will be just fine

Sponge Bob

27th in Gurteen not confirmed yet. See http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp Casement -2.6c is.

M.T. Cranium

After the past three days I feel like my empty head went through a power wash followed by a waterboarding session. But enough about the fun I'm having, how about the IMT you ask?

IMT is very well, thank you, and sitting at 8.8 after 29 days, not likely to do more than decline a tad now.

Precip looks to be stalled in the high 80s overall.

Sunshine past seven days has been quite variable and may be slipping towards a landing spot near 100%.

Please note, a November contest thread is open for your entries.

M.T. Cranium

IMT for Octo-brrr was a mere 8.6 C

Rest of the stats and a jolly old scoring session much later today (Summary yet to appear, MTC about to disappear).

DOCARCH

Sorry wrong thread for my October stats!

M.T. Cranium

By the way, ignore post above by "Spitter" (until removed by mods) as it may link to harmful spam. If not then simply irrelevant to thread or even forum.

Okay, I hit the ground running today and logged in before the MS, just finding it newborn on last check, so here we go ...

IMT was 8.6 C (brr)

MAX was 17.7 C on 10th at Valentia

MIN was -4.0 C on 27th at Gurteen (cross-checked on daily data)

PRC was 82% of normal from the eleven stations used

SUN was 105% of normal from the six stations used, Belmullet did the heavy lifting with 138% otherwise five other places very near average -- the 105% was 104.5 rounded up but I like it when this value is a multiple of 5 since most of our predictions are as well.

The bonus was already confirmed at 34.3 and clearly hasn't been exceeded in the past few days so we'll go with that value.

And now we come to the part of Unintentional Pet Bloopers where we score the contest (and investigate the still-dark MTConservatory for odd cat-originating noises that may not be so wonderful).

Scores to be announced as soon as strong coffee allows. We are still on what is ironically known as daylight saving time here and it has totally saved me from seeing daylight at 0725 which is nasty.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for the October 2012 contest

FORECASTER .................. IMT .. MAX .. MIN .. PRC .. SUN .. 24hR .... TOTALS
_________________________________________________________________

Actual values ................. 8.6 .. 17.7 . -4.0 .. 082 .. 105 .. 34.3

torrential1 ...................... 23* .. 14 .... 19 .... 14 .... 09 .... 01 ..... 80
mickger844posts ............. 20* .. 15 .... 10 .... 15 .... 09 .... 08 ..... 77
Danno ........................... 20* .. 19 .... 14 .... 12 .... 04 .... 00 ..... 69
Strasser ........................ 07 .... 19 .... 16 .... 09 .... 09 .... 06 ..... 66
Wolfe IRE ...................... 11 .... 18 .... 15 .... 02 .... 07 .... 10 ..... 63
Lumi ............................. 12 .... 16 .... 11 .... 10 .... 08 .... 05 ..... 62
Iancar29 ....................... 12 .... 05 .... 14 .... 13 .... 10 .... 07 ..... 61
kindredspirit ................... 07 .... 18 .... 05 .... 12 .... 09 .... 10 ..... 61
pauldry ......................... 11 .... 19 .... 08 .... 09 .... 09 .... 05 ..... 61
rameire ......................... 11 .... 18 .... 05 .... 09 .... 08 .... 07 ..... 58

Con Sensus ................... 10 .... 19 .... 04 .... 09 .... 09 .... 07 ..... 58

MiNdGaM3 ...................... 06 .... 19 .... 05 .... 07 .... 10 .... 09 ..... 56
Hammer Archer ............... 06 .... 16 .... 11 .... 07 .... 08 .... 07 ..... 55
dacogawa ...................... 09 .... 11 .... 10 .... 06 .... 09 .... 10 ..... 55
akura ............................ 13 .... 15 .... 09 .... 08 .... 09 .... 00 ..... 54
jd ................................. 07 .... 18 .... 00 .... 12 .... 10 .... 06 ..... 53
snowstreams .................. 12 .... 19 .... 00 .... 06 .... 07 .... 08 ..... 52
Rickylovesuall ................. 11 .... 17 .... 10 .... 02 .... 09 .... 02 ..... 51
Harps ............................ 12 .... 19 .... 02 .... 06 .... 05 .... 07 ..... 51
Joe Public ...................... 12 .... 12 .... 09 .... 02 .... 07 .... 08 ..... 50
Sponge Bob ................... 16* .. 08 .... 00 .... 14 .... 08 .... 02 ..... 48
John mac ...................... 10 .... 08 .... 05 .... 09 .... 07 .... 09 ..... 48
NIALL D ........................ 10 .... 04 .... 13 .... 08 .... 08 .... 04 ..... 47
TURRICAN ..................... 09 .... 00 .... 15 .... 10 .... 09 .... 04 ..... 47
cherryghost ................... 09 .... 14 .... 05 .... 11 .... 07 .... 01 ..... 47
lostinashford .................. 11 .... 08 .... 00 .... 07 .... 09 .... 09 ..... 44
waterways .................... 13 .... 16 .... 00 .... 02 .... 08 .... 05 ..... 44
catch.23 ....................... 06 .... 12 .... 00 .... 11 .... 07 .... 08 ..... 44
talkabout ...................... 07 .... 17 .... 04 .... 06 .... 08 .... 02 ..... 44
M.T. Cranium ................. 07 .... 00 .... 15 .... 04 .... 09 .... 09 ..... 44
Tae laidir ...................... 07 .... 13 .... 00 .... 13 .... 08 .... 03 ..... 44
traecy1 ........................ 10 .... 15 .... 02 .... 04 .... 09 .... 04 ..... 44
delw ............................ 10 .... 08 .... 03 .... 07 .... 08 .... 06 ..... 42
H2UMrsRobinson ..............12 .... 01 .... 00 .... 12 .... 10 .... 06 ..... 41
DOCARCH ...................... 14 .... 00 .... 04 .... 10 .... 10 .... 03 ..... 41
nilhg ............................. 08 .... 00 .... 01 .... 11 .... 10 .... 10 ..... 40
homolumo** .................. 10 .... 09 .... 01 .... 09 .... 10 .... 04 ..... 43 = 40
dasa29 ......................... 11 .... 00 .... 10 .... 06 .... 07 .... 03 ..... 37
jambofc ........................ 08 .... 17 .... 00 .... 00 .... 06 .... 02 ..... 33
okla ............................. 05 .... 11 .... 00 .... 06 .... 08 .... 03 ..... 33
SeaFields ...................... 03 .... 12 .... 00 .... 09 .... 03 .... 05 ..... 32
Jerry Seinfeld ................ 09 .... 09 .... 00 .... 04 .... 07 .... 01 ..... 30
Bsal ............................. 11 .... 02 .... 01 .... 05 .... 07 .... 02 ..... 28
200motels ..................... 02 .... 15 .... 00 .... 00 .... 06 .... 01 ..... 24
_________________________________________________

* no late entries, IMT best scores adjusted up slightly (min progression rule)
** one special late exemption, slight penalty applied from 43 to 40

In general, the scoring was quite good, even Con Sensus beat consensus, no wait a minute. Had it not been for the bonus, torrential1 would have had an evenjuicier1. Congrats to torrential1 and mickger844posts as well as danno (welcome back) for scaling the forbidding peak of Mount Octo-brrr ahead of all others.

The updated annual scoring race will follow in about two hours, I hope. Looks to be getting much tighter at the top.

M.T. Cranium

Updated Annual scoring table
__________________________________________


Rank*. Forecaster .... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O ... Total ... Contest (rank)

3 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57..54..60..66..62 ... 521 ... 450 (1)
4 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49..69..39..73..30 ... 516 ... 447 (2)
1 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43..64..53..53..58 ... 530 ... 446 (3)
2 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64..77..41..46..48 ... 526 ... 439 (4)
6 .. Hammer Archer .52..41..22..35..39..51..69..52..72..55 ... 488 ... 427 (5)

5 .. John mac ..........62..53..26..53..46..42..49..68..42..48 ... 489 ... 421 (6)
12. MiNdGaM3 ........33..11..31..45..70..56..64..43..53..56 ... 462 ... 420 (7)
11. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42..18..59..47..40 ... 467 ... 416 (8)
10. mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46..62..45..46..77 ... 469 ... 416 (8)
8 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75..32..43..49..44 ... 478 ... 415 (10)

8 .. Con Sensus ......58..28..31..46..48..41..54..50..58..58 ... 472 ... 413 (11)

16. Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36..66..58..55..51 ... 454 ... 411 (11)
7 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47..54..45..52..41 ... 487 ... 408 (12)
9 .. waterways ........58..29..53..33..47..49..52..50..55..44 ... 470 ... 408 (12)
14. pauldry .............61..48..45..31..49..56..49..22..39..61 ... 461 ... 408 (12)
15. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59..40..56..69..56..33 ... 455 ... 407 (15)

12. jd ....................50..28..47..44..53..35..44..48..64..53 ... 466 ... 403 (16)
20. snowstreams ....37..10..28..37..51..48..49..49..67..52 ... 428 ... 390 (17)
20. Harps ...............51..25..18..35..47..35..36..73..57..51 ... 428 ... 385 (18)
19. DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52..47..65..66..41 ... 431 ... 384 (19)
18. okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33..55..63..46..33 ... 434 ... 382 (20)

17. kindredspirit ......60..48..39..22..50..35..41..40..42..61 ... 438 ... 381 (21)
27. Danno ..............48..20..--..44..50..45..35..39..51..69 ... 401 ... 381 (21)
26. cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35..36..53..59..47 ... 404 ... 381 (21)
23. homolumo ........48..25..24..67..58..19..32..48..55..40 ... 416 ... 373 (24)
24. delw ................57..57..15..25..39..49..52..41..36..42 ... 413 ... 373 (24)

25. M.T. Cranium ....34..41..21..55..65..46..47..18..39..44 ... 410 ... 371 (26)
27. dacogawa ........50..14..17..37..59..19..48..48..54..55 ... 401 ... 370 (27)
35. lostinashford ....--..--.. 37..34..40..52..59..40..59..44 ... 365 ... 365 (28)
31. Joe Public ........42..21..08..53..66..30..38..47..30..50 ... 385 ... 356 (29)
29. Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32..25..66..39..61 ... 398 ... 354 (30)

22. traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47..52..40..44..40..44 ... 417 ... 350 (31)
30. SeaFields .........33..15..57..44..36..35..63..49..29..32 ... 393 ... 349 (32)
34. NIALL D ...........29..20..28..44..42..32..--..62..63..47 ... 367 ... 347 (33)
36. Strasser ...........--..20..52..38..29..16..47..43..46..66 ... 357 ... 341 (34)
33. 200motels ........56..69..18..31..40..26..53..40..25..24 ... 382 ... 340 (35)

32. dasa29 ............44..30..16..44..33..29..50..42..58..37 ... 383 ... 338 (36)
37. talkabout .........42..26..20..05..58..32..41..66..--..44 ... 334 ... 329 (37)
37. K_1 .................40..25..71..22..33..59..42..42..--..-- ... 334 ... 312 (38)
39. redsunset ........34..11..12..60..41..48..33..16..--..-- ... 255 ... 244 (39)
___________________________________________________________

Note that I have changed the ranking system in the table to the annual contest ranks at the end of each row. The ranks for the "all months" total starts out each row, that is why they are now somewhat scrambled out of order. Your total score, minus two lowest (including zero for missed months) is the annual contest ranking score. Check yours against my math (I have gone over them this month and fixed a few minor errors that had crept in, so if you happen to check against last month and think I made an error, that may be the reason, check this month's additions).

The rank of "Con Sensus" does not count when determining rank of actual contestants.

Well then, the horse race has tightened up considerably, with a new leader for the annual contest, congrats to Lumi who has edged in front of Jerry Seinfeld while in the MTC award category, rameire has now moved in front. Sponge Bob, Hammer Archer and John mac make up the rest of the tightly bunched top six and a few others have made an upward move of note.