What happns when we exit our bailout programme?

Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy

Ok well so as far as i know we are due to exit this currnt bailout programme late 2013


But it looks unlikely we will be able to get sufficient funds from the markets this is as much because of what is happening in Spain and Greece (if not more so) than what is happening here.

We hav been told no second bailout will be requested....I don't think it would be given anyway.

The lettr from the Germans Finns and Dutch indicate all future bailouts will go the same way our first one did.

In that case there is less incentive to accept one.

And if we don't need one...what really would be best funding this large debt on our own for the next however long?

Or what???


What happens when we exit our bailout programme (even if we handle our deficit)and cannot get access to enough funds to manage these huge payments?


Am i the only one who thinks the Govt WILL need bailout no 2 and that there is a chance that it will not get it?

What do you see happening?

Stheno

We've sold bonds for less than Spain and Greece (way less than Greece) recently.

Using them as a comparator is not the best in my opinion

Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy

Stheno wrote: »

We've sold bonds for less than Spain and Greece (way less than Greece) recently.

Using them as a comparator is not the best in my opinion

That is true but I did not use them as a comparator ....but i think things in Europe may make funding harder to get. I would worry about market stability throughout Europe if things go on like thy have on the streets etc.

What were Irish bond yeilds recently? Sorry i should have checked....


And even so will it be enough to fund these huge payments?

Stheno

Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »

That is true but I did not use them as a comparator ....but i think things in Europe may make funding harder to get. I would worry about market stability throughout Europe if things go on like thy have on the streets etc.

What were Irish bond yeilds recently? Sorry i should have checked....


And even so will it be enough to fund these huge payments?

2 year bonds were 5% or less iirc?

Dannyboy83

Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »

Ok well so as far as i know we are due to exit this currnt bailout programme late 2013


But it looks unlikely we will be able to get sufficient funds from the markets this is as much because of what is happening in Spain and Greece (if not more so) than what is happening here.

We hav been told no second bailout will be requested....I don't think it would be given anyway.

The lettr from the Germans Finns and Dutch indicate all future bailouts will go the same way our first one did.

In that case there is less incentive to accept one.

And if we don't need one...what really would be best funding this large debt on our own for the next however long?

Or what???


What happens when we exit our bailout programme (even if we handle our deficit)and cannot get access to enough funds to manage these huge payments?


Am i the only one who thinks the Govt WILL need bailout no 2 and that there is a chance that it will not get it?

What do you see happening?

If that did happen, then I imagine we'd arrive at a similar scenario as Latvia underwent in 2009.

I think it's extremely improbable tho.
Europe will pay through the pocket or the nose.

Godge

Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »

That is true but I did not use them as a comparator ....but i think things in Europe may make funding harder to get. I would worry about market stability throughout Europe if things go on like thy have on the streets etc.

What were Irish bond yeilds recently? Sorry i should have checked....


And even so will it be enough to fund these huge payments?

Yes you should have checked what Irish bond yields are recently.

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2012/09/bond-yields.html


They have dropped below 5% which is good news even if economists are not sure it is sustainable. If they stay below 5% for the next year, then we will not need a bailout.

However, if we could get a bailout at 3% rates, we may be better off taking a bailout than raising cash on the market.

Either way, there is a lot more water to flow under the bridge before we know what will happen. It is important to note however that the NTMA has raised some money on the markets already this year and that pushes back the date into early 2014.