Stephen Donnelly, on how the ECB actually owes Ireland €64 billion!

Chucky the tree

suicide_circus wrote: »

Can anyone give a compelling argument against Donnelly's assertions ?

Main problem is he draws some very simple conclusion to his ideas.

Had the market been allowed to work, the banks would have been declared insolvent, and a creditors meeting would have been called. At this, an agreement to pay out less than the face value of the bonds would have been reached

That's great. But considering most a likely a large number of those bonds are European banks which would have caused them a fair bit of pain then why would their respective Governments give us money for our deficit? It would be like you walking into the bank and telling them you are only paying half of your car loan back because you can't afford it, leaving and then turning around and walking back in the door and asking them for a loan so you can keep buying nice clothes, good food and a few holidays a year.

It was not used to run the country, to pay for teachers and nurses. And it was not used to keep the banks open, or to keep "money in the ATMs". The Irish banks could have restructured their debts while continuing banking operations for individuals and businesses. In fact, this is exactly what they did with the junior bondholders, and the ATMs worked just fine

I'd love to know what we did use to pay for teachers,d nurses etc because it certainly wasn't covered with our tax revenues.

Dockington

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Main problem is he draws some very simple conclusion to his ideas.




That's great. But considering most a likely a large number of those bonds are European banks which would have caused them a fair bit of pain then why would their respective Governments give us money for our deficit? It would be like you walking into the bank and telling them you are only paying half of your car loan back because you can't afford it, leaving and then turning around and walking back in the door and asking them for a loan so you can keep buying nice clothes, good food and a few holidays a year.


I'd love to know what we did use to pay for teachers,d nurses etc because it certainly wasn't covered with our tax revenues.

I think what Donnelly is trying to get across is that the citizens of the creditor countries should be made aware that us taking the banking debt onto our sovereign balance sheet did save the European banks (and therefore their citizens) "a fair bit of pain" as you put it and recognise that had we not intervened it would have caused a lot of trouble in the eurozone. Remember we could have gone the iceland root and let the banks write down their obligations to nothing.

And yes you are right we would be running a deficit due to a ridiculously narrow tax base and this would have been needed to be closed anyway. However we had a very low debt to GDP ratio without the banking debt and it could be argued that we could have continued to borrow normally from the financial markets avoiding the need for a bailout while in the mean time implementing austerity measures to reduce the bailout.

My points above are really simplified arguments because due to our membership of the eurozone and the interconnectedness of the european banking system we probably could not have "burned the bondholders" without serious ramifications to the banking system but as Donnelly has pointed out the Irish "bailout" was in the self interest of the creditor countries and put an unfair burden on the taxpayers of this country by making them pay back the bad investments of many banks in these same creditor countries and therefore stopping contagion. I believe the Irish people have more than played their part and now it is the turn of the European leadership to play their part and somewhat reduce the burden on the Irish people.

Duggys Housemate

Donnelly 's claim is true. The question is whether we can publicize this. Forget the German media, for now. Forget the British media - Ireland is covered more in the US than the British Media. Get that kinda statement into the WSJ, NYT, Economist etc. It will then spread around the world. Once people understand that the ECB caused the rot, they will be obliged to fix it.

failsafe

Here's the link on YouTube - for anybody looking for it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtGTnpCE4do

Ghandee

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtGTnpCE4do

purplepanda

seamus wrote: »

Because there's a fair argument which says that if you don't live in a country you shouldn't have any say in how it's run.

An argument taken advantage of every Irish government since the '30's to avoid having to answer for policy mistakes. The "get out of jail card" to avoid responsibility.

Yet many European countries give this right to their overseas citizens.

seamus

purplepanda wrote: »

Yet many European countries give this right to their overseas citizens.

I don't understand why. Just because other European countries do something, doesn't make it the right thing to do.

I don't live in Italy. Therefore I should have no say on how Italy is governed. My country of origin is irrelevant. Providing overseas citizens voting rights is an outdated sentimental nationalist concept.

Dockington

seamus wrote: »

I don't understand why. Just because other European countries do something, doesn't make it the right thing to do.

I don't live in Italy. Therefore I should have no say on how Italy is governed. My country of origin is irrelevant. Providing overseas citizens voting rights is an outdated sentimental nationalist concept.

I don't have any particularly strong feeling on this however if I had emigrated, rather than waiting in Ireland on the dole, I think I would feel pretty strongly about my right to vote for or against policies or governments that I think will allow me to return and find work in Ireland. The tens of thousands who have emigrated due to the recent crisis should have the right to vote oversees, perhaps registering as an Irish citizen with the local embassy and then attending the embassy to vote.

jmayo

Ghandee wrote: »

...
Who do you trust on serious, economical matters in Ireland, or the world for that matter?

Stephen Donnelly:, a 37 year old graduate of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, having complete a Masters’ degree in Public Administration and International Development in 2008, who spent most of his career as a management consultant with McKinsey & Company (American global management consulting firm that focuses on solving issues of concern to senior management. McKinsey serves as an adviser to many businesses, governments, and institutions. It is recognized as one of the most prestigious consulting firms in the world, has proportionally produced more CEOs in large-scale corporations than any other company, and has been a top employer for new MBA graduates since 1996.)

Or,

Michale Noonan; Minister for finance, a 69 year old former school teacher.

Personally, I'm with Stephen Donnelly.

I'm with neither.
They are both politicans and have alterior motives.

RoundyMooney wrote: »

I think Stephen Donnelly is possibly the brightest political figure that this Dáil has produced. I don't remember him putting a foot wrong once, since he started. And I don't agree with everything he says, but he sure says it well.

A pity we don't have another sixty or so of him.

I used to think the same having met him and talked to him for a while prior to the last election.
Then I hear him claiming mortgage holders in trouble should be bailed out and my opinion quickly changed.

Sorcha16 wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly is a breath of fresh air in a vacuum of bullsh*t

Yeah right.
In that case do you want to help pay for all his homeloan bailouts ?

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Donnelly 's claim is true. The question is whether we can publicize this. Forget the German media, for now. Forget the British media - Ireland is covered more in the US than the British Media. Get that kinda statement into the WSJ, NYT, Economist etc. It will then spread around the world. Once people understand that the ECB caused the rot, they will be obliged to fix it.

There is a lot more at play here than big old bad Brussels or big old bad Frankfurt.
When anyone brings up about bondholders they claim we are paying back German and European banks which is no way the full picture.

What about the assertion by Morgan Kelly that the ones that stopped any bondholder debt writedown during the bailout talks were actually the good old US of A in the form of Timothy Geithner.

Someone had to lay down their future and help stop the rot spreading and we through our government were volunteered.
And when it came time to cover the cost we were volunteered yet again.

Our leaders during the guarantee and bailout talks rolled over and the current crowd are still playing nicely living in the vain hope we get thrown a few scraps.

The Spanish and Italians have the weight to go tell the ECB and the rest to go fook themselves.
Our problem is that we, both as a state and as a people, look for affirmation from foreigners that we are liked, popular and usually do as we are told.
Just look at our contribution to Euro 2012 or our uturns on EU referendums.
We play the happy clappy drunks and we roll over far too easily.

By this stage I think our bargaining position is fook all.
Our only bargaining chip now is that we default on soverign debt.

purplepanda wrote: »

An argument taken advantage of every Irish government since the '30's to avoid having to answer for policy mistakes. The "get out of jail card" to avoid responsibility.

Yet many European countries give this right to their overseas citizens.

How many other European nations would end up with about half the electorate actually residing outside of the country ?
If we gave votes to every Irish born person most of the voters would be in UK or the states.

Ghandee

seamus wrote: »

I don't understand why. Just because other European countries do something, doesn't make it the right thing to do.

Which is exactly what lots of people (including myself) have been arguing about with the govts plans to introduce a property tax.

Just because 'they all have one' doesn't mean we need one.

seamus

Ghandee wrote: »

Which is exactly what lots of people (including myself) have been arguing about with the govts plans to introduce a property tax.

Just because 'they all have one' doesn't mean we need one.

What's that got to do with this thread?

Ghandee

seamus wrote: »

What's that got to do with this thread?

Two things exactly.

The first being that we supposedly had to introduce a property tax 'as a condition of our bailout'.

The second being that if your reasoning that 'just because they do something, doesn't mean we have to do it' is good enough for this thread, surely it contradicts exactly what the pro-property tax have been saying for months as why, as everyone else has a property tax, we should follow suit.

That excuse can't suit one argument but not the other?

seamus

Ghandee wrote: »

That excuse can't suit one argument but not the other?

Why not? They're two totally different discussions.
Equally invalid is, "Because they do it, we shouldn't do it". I think you'll find more correctly that what people say is that property tax is a feature of every economy with a wide and stable tax base that currently hasn't got an economy in the ****ter. Therefore if we wish to have a wide and stable tax base, it would make sense to follow their initiatives.

suicide_circus

I think Donnelly's arguement lays bare the true colours of the European Union versus the principles on which it was founded.

Fratton Fred

So, let me get this straight.

Rather than Ireland being grateful to Europe for bailing us out, Europe should actually be grateful to us for bailing them out, even though it was the mother of all property bubbles, in this country, that actually caused the mess we are in?

It was an Irish mess, made worse by an incompetant Irish government. Why exactly should Hans, Petr, John or Pierre be thanking us?

suicide_circus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So, let me get this straight.

Rather than Ireland being grateful to Europe for bailing us out, Europe should actually be grateful to us for bailing them out, even though it was the mother of all property bubbles, in this country, that actually caused the mess we are in?

It was an Irish mess, made worse by an incompetant Irish government. Why exactly should Hans, Petr, John or Pierre be thanking us?

for being the fall guys. you think it was just our banking system that was being poor regulated? we were the gangrenous limb hacked off to save the continent. except we're not a gangrenous limb - we're ****ing people, a nation, whose innocent children have been lumbered with billions in debt created by professional gamblers from all over the world, ie: bondholders.

Fratton Fred

suicide_circus wrote: »

for being the fall guys. you think it was just our banking system that was being poor regulated? we were the gangrenous limb hacked off to save the continent. except we're not a gangrenous limb - we're ****ing people, a nation, whose innocent children have been lumbered with billions in debt created by professional gamblers from all over the world, ie: bondholders.

OH Please.

Look at the austerity measures being put in place in France, Italy and the UK. The whole of europe are feeling the pain, except those countries didn't blow their money on coke and hookers.

The Billions of debt wasn't created by gamblers, or bond holders, it was created by sheer greed of a lot of people in this country and encouraged by a greedy and incompetant government.

suicide_circus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OH Please.

Look at the austerity measures being put in place in France, Italy and the UK. The whole of europe are feeling the pain, except those countries didn't blow their money on coke and hookers.

The Billions of debt wasn't created by gamblers, or bond holders, it was created by sheer greed of a lot of people in this country and encouraged by a greedy and incompetant government.

ah, an Irish EU apologist with a side of self loathing, tell me more about how I brought it upon myself when i've never atually borrowed a single cent from a financial institution..

Chips Lovell

We spent the best part of a decade gleefully endorsing a magic beans economy. Look where that got us.

Now the the first person to come along who tells us what we want to hear and we drop our knickers for them.

Have we learned absolutely nothing?

suicide_circus

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

We spent the best part of a decade gleefully endorsing a magic beans economy. Look where that got us.

Now the the first person to come along who tells us what we want to hear and we drop our knickers for them.

Have we learned absolutely nothing?

but hang on, is he wrong?

Duggys Housemate

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So, let me get this straight.

Rather than Ireland being grateful to Europe for bailing us out, Europe should actually be grateful to us for bailing them out, even though it was the mother of all property bubbles, in this country, that actually caused the mess we are in?

It was an Irish mess, made worse by an incompetant Irish government. Why exactly should Hans, Petr, John or Pierre be thanking us?

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OH Please.

Look at the austerity measures being put in place in France, Italy and the UK. The whole of europe are feeling the pain, except those countries didn't blow their money on coke and hookers.

The Billions of debt wasn't created by gamblers, or bond holders, it was created by sheer greed of a lot of people in this country and encouraged by a greedy and incompetant government.

suicide_circus wrote: »

but hang on, is he wrong?

The self-flaggelaters wouldn't agree. although FF is not really a self-flagelator.

Donelleys point is clear.

1) The banks cost 65B to bail.
2) This 65B went to bondholders, mostly European banks
3) We got that from Europe, but have to pay it back.

Ergo, we are the middle men for bailing out European banks, and have to pay. Had we let the banks fail - like Iceland - we would not be in this position. Therefore, let Europe pay for it's own bailout.

suicide_circus

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

The slef-flaggelaters wouldn't agree. although FF is not really a self-flagelator.

Donelleys point is clear.

1) The banks cost 65B to bail.
2) This 65B went to bondholders, mostly European banks
3) We got that from Europe, but have to pay it back.

Ergo, we are the middle men for bailing out European banks, and have to pay. Had we let the banks fail - like Iceland - we would not be in this position. Therefore, let Europe pay for it's own bailout.

bingo.

Chucky the tree

suicide_circus wrote: »

ah, an Irish EU apologist with a side of self loathing, tell me more about how I brought it upon myself when i've never atually borrowed a single cent from a financial institution..

Welcome to Democracy. It's where you get for what the majority want.

Fratton Fred

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So, let me get this straight.

Rather than Ireland being grateful to Europe for bailing us out, Europe should actually be grateful to us for bailing them out, even though it was the mother of all property bubbles, in this country, that actually caused the mess we are in?

It was an Irish mess, made worse by an incompetant Irish government. Why exactly should Hans, Petr, John or Pierre be thanking us?

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OH Please.

Look at the austerity measures being put in place in France, Italy and the UK. The whole of europe are feeling the pain, except those countries didn't blow their money on coke and hookers.

The Billions of debt wasn't created by gamblers, or bond holders, it was created by sheer greed of a lot of people in this country and encouraged by a greedy and incompetant government.

suicide_circus wrote: »

but hang on, is he wrong?

The slef-flaggelaters wouldn't agree. although FF is not really a self-flagelator.

Donelleys point is clear.

1) The banks cost 65B to bail.
2) This 65B went to bondholders, mostly European banks
3) We got that from Europe, but have to pay it back.

Ergo, we are the middle men for bailing out European banks, and have to pay. Had we let the banks fail - like Iceland - we would not be in this position. Therefore, let Europe pay for it's own bailout.

So what you are saying then, is that someone else should pick up the bill for the Irish property bubble?

suicide_circus

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Welcome to Democracy. It's where you get for what the majority want.

tell me about it

ejmaztec

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Welcome to Democracy. It's where you get for what the majority want.

I think that in most political systems, whenever the sh1t hits the fan, everybody gets a good covering.:(

Ghandee

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So what you are saying then, is that someone else should pick up the bill for the Irish property bubble?

Point of thread goes completely over head.

Ghandee

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Welcome to Democracy. It's where you get for what the majority want.

Wrong.

The majority weren't given an option.

Did the govt gold a referendum on bailing out the banks?

Chucky the tree

Ghandee wrote: »

Wrong.

The majority weren't given an option.

Did the govt gold a referendum on bailing out the banks?

I wasn't referring tot he bank bail-out.

Fratton Fred

Ghandee wrote: »

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Welcome to Democracy. It's where you get for what the majority want.

Wrong.

The majority weren't given an option.

Did the govt gold a referendum on bailing out the banks?

German tax payers certainly weren't.

Ghandee

Fratton Fred wrote: »

German tax payers certainly weren't.

Weren't what

Fratton Fred

Ghandee wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

German tax payers certainly weren't.

Weren't what

German, British and French tax payers weren't given an option on the bank bail out, so why should they foot the bill.

The Irish property bubble made billions disappear. Someone, somewhere has to cough for it and I'm afraid we are guilty by association.

Seaneh

Fratton Fred wrote: »

German, British and French tax payers weren't given an option on the bank bail out, so why should they foot the bill.

The Irish property bubble made billions disappear. Someone, somewhere has to cough for it and I'm afraid we are guilty by association.

Jesus you haven't a bulls ****ing notion what you are farting on about, do you?

As ****ing usual.

Par for the course with you.

Scioch

the groutch wrote: »

is this supposed to be a secret?
this is all it was ever about from day 1, protecting our European "friends" who inflated the bubble by throwing cheap money at our banks.

Exactly, we all knew what was happening. We all knew the state was unnecessarily paying out the bonds to prop up the European banking sector and nobody could do anything about it.

Main reason being that Labour (who were elected to oppose the continued payment to bondholers) sold out their voters and bent knee to FG/FF policy on it to continue paying.

FG and Labour and FF before them bled the country dry to prop up Europe. And yet most people ignore this in favour of attacking welfare recipients as the problem.

Fratton Fred

Seaneh wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

German, British and French tax payers weren't given an option on the bank bail out, so why should they foot the bill.

The Irish property bubble made billions disappear. Someone, somewhere has to cough for it and I'm afraid we are guilty by association.

Jesus you haven't a bulls ****ing notion what you are farting on about, do you?

As ****ing usual.

Par for the course with you.

As usual, you appear incapable of a rational arguement.

K-9

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

The self-flaggelaters wouldn't agree. although FF is not really a self-flagelator.

Donelleys point is clear.

1) The banks cost 65B to bail.
2) This 65B went to bondholders, mostly European banks
3) We got that from Europe, but have to pay it back.

Ergo, we are the middle men for bailing out European banks, and have to pay. Had we let the banks fail - like Iceland - we would not be in this position. Therefore, let Europe pay for it's own bailout.

Had we not guaranteed our banks we would not be in this position.

Fratton Fred

K-9 wrote: »

Had we not guaranteed our banks we would not be in this position.

People seem to forget the "The cheapest bailout in history" was made not to prop up banks, or foreign bond holders or even some elite race of lizard men. Fianna Fail did it to try and prolong the bubble and to help out their cronies.

For that reason alone we are all having to pay.

edit: sorry, I meant to say that none f it is out fault, no one in Ireland ever did anything wrong and it is all the fault of someone else who should be enternally grateful to us for bailing them out.:rolleyes:

Dockington

Fratton Fred wrote: »

edit: sorry, I meant to say that none f it is out fault, no one in Ireland ever did anything wrong and it is all the fault of someone else who should be enternally grateful to us for bailing them out.:rolleyes:

Making smartarse comments doesnt make you more correct. Of course there is fault in Ireland but you have to recognise that European banks lent into the Irish property bubble in order to make a quick buck. This influx of cheap credit exacerbated an already bad situation (largely due to poor fiscal decisions in Ireland and of course a good dollop of greed). There was also failure of regulation at the European level.

No one is saying that the creditor countries should be grateful to us (well I certainly am not anyway), but they should recognise that we took on a large burden onto the sovereign balance sheet in order to stem the risk of contagion to the banks of the creditor countries. Also Donnelly makes the point that the ECB should be responsible for the banking debts rather than the ESM due to the fact that the taxpayers in the creditor countries should not cover the tab. Personally I would not expect to be reimbursed the whole 64bn but some reduction in the burden is definitely required. Why not start the negotiating position at 64bn and come to some compromise.

poeticseraphim

K-9 wrote: »

Had we not guaranteed our banks we would not be in this position.

We made a temporary garantee..legally we can stop renewing it. We gave it a set time..the govt just keeps renewing it...that is why we are still dealing with nama and these banks have not collapsed without the garentee no matter how much money the ECB pumped in it would not have saved them.


Some bondholders like Abramovitch we know ..are foreign...and yes we got crooked advice...but some would be Irish

The thing is i wish people would focus on what is wrong or right and focus on what we can get and the best we can get..when we exit the bailout programme THEN is the time to try


But yes make it go viral..it can't hurt....

But the point is not what we SHOULD get it is what we can get...and the best we can get...we are a small country...

spank_inferno

Fred fails to notice that it was largely German pension fund money that took a gamble on the Irish Banks & their associated property gambles.

It all came crashing down.

Rather than face the wrath of a many a folk with smaller pension pots, The EU (And America) ordered the Irish Gov to nationalise the debts of the banks and repay all those who placed losing bets on those same banks.

K-9

spank_inferno wrote: »

Fred fails to notice that it was largely German pension fund money that took a gamble on the Irish Banks & their associated property gambles.

.

Well that's new one on me, where did you read this?

Fratton Fred

spank_inferno wrote: »

Fred fails to notice that it was largely German pension fund money that took a gamble on the Irish Banks & their associated property gambles.

It all came crashing down.

Rather than face the wrath of a many a folk with smaller pension pots, The EU (And America) ordered the Irish Gov to nationalise the debts of the banks and repay all those who placed losing bets on those same banks.

I don't see how or why it is relevant tbh.

Dockington

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I don't see how or why it is relevant tbh.

Are you actually serious. If what the poster has stated is true how can it not be relevant. Whether you agree with Donnelly's points or not you have to see how this is relevant to the debate. That is thread over for me, cant take any more stupidity.:mad:

Fratton Fred

Dockington wrote: »

Are you actually serious. If what the poster has stated is true how can it not be relevant. Whether you agree with Donnelly's points or not you have to see how this is relevant to the debate. That is thread over for me, cant take any more stupidity.:mad:

Well, for starters, lets try and get the poster to back up their statement, because I would question the truth behind it.

secondly, I don't see how it is relevant who or where these mystical bond holders are. Why should German pensioners take a hit because of an incompetent Irish government?

Shryke

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Well, for starters, lets try and get the poster to back up their statement, because I would question the truth behind it.

secondly, I don't see how it is relevant who or where these mystical bond holders are. Why should German pensioners take a hit because of an incompetent Irish government?

There is no hope for this one.

Fratton Fred

Shryke wrote: »

There is no hope for this one.

sorry.

boo hoo, feel sorry for us, no one else in the world is going through what we are. we had nothing to do with it and the nasty europeans forced us to do it.

the amount of self pitying and outright refusal to man up and accept responsibilities in this thread is outstanding.:rolleyes:

jd1983

Why should German pensioners take a hit because of an incompetent Irish government?

Why should Irish taxpayers take the hit for Germans investing their money with incompetent money managers that invested in toxic banks.

Fratton Fred

jd1983 wrote: »

Why should Irish taxpayers take the hit for Germans investing their money with incompetent money managers that invested in toxic banks.

Because it was (broadly speaking) Irish tax payers that pissed the money away.

jd1983

boo hoo, feel sorry for us, no one else in the world is going through what we are.

Yes, other countries are having to endure austerity measures and if we did not have to re-pay bank debt we would still have to endure austerity measures like everyone else. However what's different between us and other countries is the size of our debt to GDP ratio. This is debt that is being lumped onto the next few generations of Irish people, who had absolutely nothing to with bank debt.
In fact Irish people are handling austerity measures much better that other countries, you only have to look at any news articles coming out of Spain/Greece over the last few years to realize this. So you're statement above just comes across as incredibly juvenile and bitter.

Scioch

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Because it was (broadly speaking) Irish tax payers that pissed the money away.

Hang on you actually agree with the bank guarantee ??

Sweet jesus.