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Spot The Bomb. Winter 2012-2013

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  • 12-10-2012 8:42pm
    #1
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭


    I was waiting for the first proper Bomb Cyclone to show up in the models and here we have one showing next Friday the 20th of October on NOGAPS with a tidy 950 at its centre having dropped 30 in 24 Hours.

    Thursday at 6z 980 Centre

    nogaps-0-138.png?12-18


    Friday at 6z 950 Centre. It's a BOMB!

    nogaps-0-162.png?12-18


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    #2
    123 LC
    Registered Users Posts: 670 ✭✭✭123 LC


    what does this mean in terms of weather for ireland? - confused person.

    *also fridays the 19th october


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    #3
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    123 LC wrote: »
    what does this mean in terms of weather for ireland? - confused person.
    You should do some reading you should. :) Start here > http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wnoreast/wbombs.htm


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    #4
    Northclare
    Closed Accounts Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Northclare


    Does this mean there will be a big massive swell on its way,the surfers will love this if thats the way it will pan out....


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    #5
    gozunda
    Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Ohhh thats nasty looking......


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    #6
    srmambo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭srmambo


    Now all it needs to do is generate north easterly winds and come back in November.

    Looks like a nasty storm though, any chance of it matching the same storm last October?


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    #7
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Not as intense at all in later runs. Models are great for bombs though and the GFS 'bombed' us with 950 central pressure jobbies last winter and was surprisingly good at 5 days out or less or so I thought.


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    #8
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Coming up to the anniversary of the storm which resulted in the horrible loss of life off the west coast. (28th Oct 1927)

    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Oct1927_storm.pdf

    The re-analysis charts for this don't show a particularly vigorous low but given the lack of data at the time this is understandable. The wave depression itself developed quite rapidly to the SW as was still deepening as it moved in over Ireland; it was also a very rapidly moving system which no doubt helped to increase the surface wind speed.

    225897.png

    From the NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Global Reanalysis Version II.

    Not sure if it is possible to get wind speed/pressure data from this far back, but it would be interesting to see.


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    #9
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Found this great old RTE documentary (from 1972) that recounts some of the stories of the people who directly experienced the Oct 1927 storm.

    http://euscreen.eu/play.jsp?id=EUS_9E12DEE6B3E34716BB0CD96164B4B31F

    Going by some of the stories, it seems possible that the storm may have been a very potent squall line. 1. The wind sprung up very suddenly. 2. Some could hear the storm coming before it arrived - Thunder? 3. Did not last especially long, around 90 minutes according to one guy in the video. 4. Intense rain - something you would not associate with a sting-jet event.

    All theory!


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