Real or phantom bidder? Advice needed!

MsG

Hi there,
I've been reading with interest some of the first time buyer advice on this forum. Myself and the OH have just started the process of looking for a house. We have AIP from AIB and are eager to find somewhere now.

I have seen a house online that we're very interested in. It's on for 310,000. I rang the estate agent today to arrange a viewing and was told that there is an offer of 295,000 on it. Now the house has only been on the market for 10 days.

Do you think that it's just a really eager bidder or is the EA having me on?
I'd appreciate your opinion on this one!
Thanks

Idbatterim

unless it is priced to sell, that offer seems very close to asking, a lot closer tham you might expect in such a short time frame! unless, the house is priced to sell quickly, instead of chasing the market down. What are the directly comparable houses in the area going for? assuming there are any! if you post up a link Id be able to give you much better advice...

djimi

There was someone on here recently who said that they offered the asking price for a house as their first offer, so its not entirely beyond the realm of possibility that its a real bid!

It does sound to me suspicously like the seller is trying to set a level below the asking price below which they do not want to hear offers.

Idbatterim

It does sound to me suspicously like the seller is trying to set a level below the asking price below which they do not want to hear offers.

Exactly it is Impossible to know if the claim is true or not. I would more than likely says its BS, but you cant be sure.

MsG

Thanks for the super quick replies guys. It seems priced in and around what others in the area have been selling for...perhaps slightly higher even.
Here's the link,
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/18-willow-park-avenue-glasnevin-dublin-11/2172925

Thanks again!

Idbatterim

how long have you been looking Op and what are you circumstances? i.e currently renting etc?

thehamo

MsG wrote: »

Thanks for the super quick replies guys. It seems priced in and around what others in the area have been selling for...perhaps slightly higher even.
Here's the link,
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/18-willow-park-avenue-glasnevin-dublin-11/2172925

Thanks again!

I know houses around that area have sold for 285/290. One house on the road of similar spec was on the market for 275 and went for 285 so demand is high in the area. Could well have been an eager bidder. A house I went sale agreed on recently went straight in at the asking price and we had to bid over. People are being a bit silly at the mo because of the interest relief ending

Idbatterim

op you could go and view it, I can guarantee that if they are saying there is an offer on it, whether its true or not, they will want to play you off the other party or parties! go see a few houses, decide if its the one for you or not, and what its worth to you. No harm in going and saying 275 or so k is the max you could go... Tell them to let you know if sale falls through. do you know the circumstances of the seller? this can have big bearing on final sale price.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/54-glasnevin-park-glasnevin-dublin-11/2100473

MsG

We have only been looking seriously for about 2 months but I would have been keeping an eye on houses around the area for a while now. Only just have
AIP. We've been to view the one on Glasnevin park and also Glasnevin ave...the both needed a good bit of work and are both north facing so not ideal.
We'll go and view this one in a few days anyway and try to get some more info out of the estate agent.

Idbatterim

Op, you can track price changes at the below link. Maybe also take look at

http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?LocalityIDs=1303

http://www.propertypriceregister.ie/

id play everything very cool with the estate agent, even if you love a particular property, they will try to exploit emotions etc...

riclad

AS the houses have sold at that price ,i think you have to assume its a real bid ,
People may be in a hurry to bid, as the mortgage tax credit scheme will be ending soon.
i know certain ,streets , there might be only 1 house for sale in a year,so if one comes up ,people will bid on it quickly.
if you want to get tax credits on interest, you,ll have to buy something in the near future.

Idbatterim

AS the houses have sold at that price ,i think you have to assume its a real bid ,
People may be in a hurry to bid, as the mortgage tax credit scheme will be ending soon.
i know certain ,streets , there might be only 1 house for sale in a year,so if one comes up ,people will bid on it quickly.
if you want to get tax credits on interest, you,ll have to buy something in the near future.

ok so lets assume this is true and some people are pushing up prices to avail of the interest relief! what do you reckon the result will be come january? lots of competition now v less in new year...

Ritchi

Idbatterim wrote: »

ok so lets assume this is true and some people are pushing up prices to avail of the interest relief! what do you reckon the result will be come january? lots of competition now v less in new year...

House prices look to have gone up in the past few months(in certain areas), I think it's due to the mortgage interest relief, most people don't actually seem to realise how little it is worth to them.

I suspect house prices to go back down again from January on, due to probably income tax increases, property tax increases, interest rate increases(AIB has gone up twice recently, BOI once) and it looks like no new incentives from the government. All of these, along with the existing problems of lack of bank lending, emmigration, lack of trust in the market, will lead to less competition and a highly likely drop in prices.

Zamboni

MsG wrote: »

Thanks for the super quick replies guys. It seems priced in and around what others in the area have been selling for...perhaps slightly higher even.
Here's the link,
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/18-willow-park-avenue-glasnevin-dublin-11/2172925

Thanks again!

Lovely area.
I think it is overpriced though. Hold out.
Plenty of people in that area dying.

riclad

in certain area,s theres a small amount of propertys that come up for sale.Prices may go down a bit ,when tax credits for mortgages are no longer avaidable.

bazwaldo

I'd say its BS. If its only on the market 10 days its unlikely that a bid has come in that quick.

From the couple of experiences I have had this year on bidding I have learnt that the EAs cannot be trusted in the slightest. Avoid showing any emotion and tell them as little as possible when dealing with them.

For a house like this there will be interest as its a decent family home. It will sell for sure. You need to work out how much you are happy to pay for it and never go above that. Start with a bid lower than this if possible and increase if needs be when they say no or you are outbid. State its your final bid if you feel the price is good so they don't come back looking for more and risk losing you.

You can also match an existing bid you are "ready to go" as you are a preferable buyer. Also if outbidding another, increment in the smallest denomation possible.

gurramok

Zamboni wrote: »

Lovely area.
I think it is overpriced though. Hold out.
Plenty of people in that area dying.

Dying? Strange comment; ) I see what you say though, there is an elderly demographic here.

Not sure about lovely area, its right next to a not lovely area. That should be reflected in the price.

Zamboni

gurramok wrote: »

Dying? Strange comment; ) I see what you say though, there is an elderly demographic here.

Not sure about lovely area, its right next to a not lovely area. That should be reflected in the price.

Where Ballymun?
If it was a house on the Road facing Poppintree park I would expect a discount or if it was in Pinewood backing onto the new housing.
But not the avenue.

gurramok

Zamboni wrote: »

Where Ballymun?
If it was a house on the Road facing Poppintree park I would expect a discount or if it was in Pinewood backing onto the new housing.
But not the avenue.

Its only 2 streets away! I'd prefer myself if in that situation to look south of Glasnevin\Ballymun ave rather than north of it.

gurramok

Surprised no-one has mentioned the Price Register yet, its a valuable tracking device!

14/01/2010 €405,000.00 98 Willow Park Avenue, Glasnevin, Dublin 11, Dublin
23/04/2010 €222,500.00 24 Willow Park Avenue, Glasnevin Dublin 11, Dublin
17/12/2010 €365,000.00 78 Willow Park Avenue, Glasnevin, Dublin
10/07/2012 €150,000.00 ** 47 Willow Park Avenue, Glasnevin, Dublin 11, Dublin
31/08/2012 €285,000.00 45 Willow Park Avenue, Glasnevin, Dublin 11, Dublin

No 2 houses are the same in theory but the house in question is not far from number 24.

MagicMarker

Idbatterim wrote: »

op you could go and view it, I can guarantee that if they are saying there is an offer on it, whether its true or not, they will want to play you off the other party or parties! go see a few houses, decide if its the one for you or not, and what its worth to you. No harm in going and saying 275 or so k is the max you could go... Tell them to let you know if sale falls through. do you know the circumstances of the seller? this can have big bearing on final sale price.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/54-glasnevin-park-glasnevin-dublin-11/2100473

Jaysus, were those pictures taken in the 80s?!

Idbatterim

Jaysus, were those pictures taken in the 80s?!

agree, but whether its dated or dated dated, gutting jobs one way or another, makes no real difference! What strikes me as funny OP, is that normally a house that had just gone on the market, would not receive offers so close to the asking, its possible, but surprises me a little! Id get a friend or family member to ring up and see if they get same story...

Idbatterim

Ill say one thing though, I vaguely know the area, but live in Churchtown, house prices in Dundrum, Churchtown area are pretty similar and those areas have vastly better facilities and amenities in IMHO...

For a house like this there will be interest as its a decent family home. It will sell for sure. You need to work out how much you are happy to pay for it and never go above that. Start with a bid lower than this if possible and increase if needs be when they say no or you are outbid. State its your final bid if you feel the price is good so they don't come back looking for more and risk losing you.

You can also match an existing bid you are "ready to go" as you are a preferable buyer. Also if outbidding another, increment in the smallest denomation possible.

totally agree with the above...

EricPraline

Idbatterim wrote: »

Ill say one thing though, I vaguely know the area, but live in Churchtown, house prices in Dundrum, Churchtown area are pretty similar and those areas have vastly better facilities and amenities in IMHO...

I don't think the prices are that similar tbh. An equivalent house in a less desirable and less well-serviced part of Churchtown would currently be asking 100k more (example in Landscape Gardens). A better comparison might be the older estates in Sandyford or the fringes of Kilmacud, although you're still paying the "Southside tax" to some extent there too

OP there's no way you can really know whether the bid is real or not right now. Either you believe they are genuine and you increase the bid, or you call the agent's bluff and stick with a lower bid. The choice is up to you.

On another note, personally I'd look at the south or central end of Glasnevin, very different area in terms of atmosphere, amenities, schools and proximity to city centre, when compared to the former Ballymun Avenue area.

MsG

Thanks again,
Lots to think about there. Viewing towards the end of the week so I'll let you know how we get on. I know Glasnevin very well and while I would prefer to be closer to the 'real/original' Glasnvein, there's not much on offer that meets our specs around the area.

Gillian1

Op, my situation is not exactly like yours but when we were looking for a house we wanted the area where I grew up and when a house we were interested in came on market it was initial over priced. Didn't view it or consider it as not only was it out of our price range it was also over priced for area. Fast forward 3mths house has 50k price drop so now we're interested. We tried to contact EA which was closed over Xmas but we managed to have a private viewing as the sellers are friends of a relation of mine. We decide we like house didn't get into prices with private viewing they were happy to stick with EA so rings ea in new yr explain I've already viewed and very interested ea tells me there's already interest in house and that he has another viewing lined up on Saturday morning and not to hang around if interested so I ask can we also view it on Saturday morning wanted a second look at it. Saturday morning comes around we get to house before ea he comes along we view then tells us other couple are due to view it straight after us so we leave drive up road and park and just as we expected ea gets in car and leaves 2mins later. Then we knew he was full of BS and ball was in our court.

Sorry for long post but imo u should get a family member to view it and see if they get the same story off the EA as personally I'd say he's lying!

Baky

I've heard one way to find out if other offers are bogus or not is to ask the EA for details of the offer in writing so that you can show your bank manager and solicitor. I have done that in the past (twice) and on both occasions was told that the offer had been withdrawn. (So presumably never existed - they are not willing to put phantom bids in writing.) May be worth a try so at least you're not going in with an offer above its value.

In the height of the madness, the EAs told you on the way in to the first viewing that they already had an offer in excess of the asking price and now that competition is hotting up again for family homes, they're up to their old tricks. That said - an offer at this level is entirely possible, even within 10 days because there is a shortage of housing in certain areas. I viewed a house in Blackrock 2 weeks ago that had gone on the market on Friday with first viewing on Saturday. I got a call from the EA on Tuesday saying if I was interested I'd need to get my bid in by lunchtime as they had secured the full asking price (€630,000 for a 3 bed semi on Frascati Park) and intended to go Sale Agreed by the end of the day. I scoffed at this on the phone, wondering aloud if she had time travelled back to 2003 - but the Sale Agreed sign was up by the following Friday - one week after going on the market :eek:

Baky

Not Frascati Park actually - Convent Road.

deandean

OP ya just don't know. There are lot of buyers chasing 'family homes' at the moment.

Mate of mine last year was interested in a house (these figures are approx) and bid 340K, the EA came right back & told him there was an offer of 355K, my mate smelled a rat and pulled out. He looked up the price index last week, the house sold for 340K to a.n.other!

You just can't trust an EA.

Idbatterim

That said - an offer at this level is entirely possible, even within 10 days because there is a shortage of housing in certain areas. I viewed a house in Blackrock 2 weeks ago that had gone on the market on Friday with first viewing on Saturday. I got a call from the EA on Tuesday saying if I was interested I'd need to get my bid in by lunchtime as they had secured the full asking price (€630,000 for a 3 bed semi on Frascati Park) and intended to go Sale Agreed by the end of the day. I scoffed at this on the phone, wondering aloud if she had time travelled back to 2003 - but the Sale Agreed sign was up by the following Friday - one week after going on the market

if this is the case, youd wonder why sell so quick, unless the person offering the full asking, put gun to EA / Sellers head (I.e wanted same or next day response or they were pulling out), or were sellers desperate, just right buyer at right time for seller? uninformed buyer? who knows...

flintash

Baky wrote: »

I've heard one way to find out if other offers are bogus or not is to ask the EA for details of the offer in writing so that you can show your bank manager and solicitor. I have done that in the past (twice) and on both occasions was told that the offer had been withdrawn. (So presumably never existed - they are not willing to put phantom bids in writing.) May be worth a try so at least you're not going in with an offer above its value.

On what basis your bank manager would want to know other's offer? Just dont want to look silly when I ask for this, as I'm a horrible liar. Surely EA will go "What?"

Baky

flintash wrote: »

On what basis your bank manager would want to know other's offer? Just don't want to look silly when I ask for this, as I'm a horrible liar. Surely EA will go "What?"

I never felt it necessary to give an EA a reason - it's none of their business and they certainly have no right to ask you. Just tell them you want it - not in an apologetic way - they are obliged to provide in writing any information they are giving you. They made the claim - they should not have any problem with it and have no business questioning you about it.

(By the way, I presume the reason is that your mortgage provider decides what properties to lend for and which ones not to. One way they can establish the real value of the property they are buying in your name is to see what the market is willing to pay for it...)

Mr. Loverman

Over 10 times the average wage for an ordinary house right next to a bad area... in a semi-ruined country.

Some things never change...

riclad

Theres a limited amount of 3 bed houses for sale, in certain areas,eg drumcondra ,phibsboro ,
eg nice house,s close to city centre,
so when 1 comes up there tends to be 2 or 3 bidders for it.
IF you want a cheaper house look in west dublin ,or other area,s.

Idbatterim

Over 10 times the average wage for an ordinary house right next to a bad area... in a semi-ruined country.

Some things never change...

310k is the asking price in fairness, and isnt the average wage around 35k?

Mr. Loverman

Idbatterim wrote: »

310k is the asking price in fairness, and isnt the average wage around 35k?

It was something like that before the bubble burst, so it's got to be a lot lower now.

EricPraline

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

It was something like that before the bubble burst, so it's got to be a lot lower now.

Not to bring things too off-topic, but the average wage across all sectors was €35.8k in August, average industrial wage was €41.8k (see here). Also many buyers for this kind of family home would be couples. So, for the average industrial employed couple on a combined salary of around €80k, this would be around 3.9 times the price of this average house.

On the other hand, this house probably needs a 80-100k renovation, bringing the multiple closer to 5X or more.

riclad

its location,location,
many couples will pay alot more to live in a good area.
Close to city centre,shops,schools.
you can save abit on renovation, do your own painting,wallpapering.
if a house needs 80k renovation, its basically a shell,4 walls and a roof.
theres a funny article in this weeks, sunday independent .
a woman is househounting,SHE,S complaining its hard to find even a small house in dublin 4 for sale under 350k.And she s getting outbid,on everything she bids for.

she might have to borrow 400k to buy a house there.
Maybe she should look in area,s outside dublin 4.

Idbatterim

if a house needs 80k renovation, its basically a shell,4 walls and a roof.

agree with this, for a normal say 3/4 bed semi, that kind of money should be getting you a total gut job and possibly extension etc also, also finish to a high standard. Dont even see how youd spend 80k to be honest...

theres a funny article in this weeks, sunday independent .
a woman is househounting,SHE,S complaining its hard to find even a small house in dublin 4 for sale under 350k.And she s getting outbid,on everything she bids for.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/29-ailesbury-mews-off-ailesbury-gardens-ballsbridge-dublin-4/1994391
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/50-pembroke-cottages-donnybrook-dublin-4/1763794
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/leeson-vilage-donnybrook-dublin-4/2125196
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/31-home-villas-donnybrook-dublin-4/2001906
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/41-donnybrook-manor-donnybrook-dublin-4/1993457

shes either not looking very hard or is deluded over what that type of money will buy in the better areas of D.4!

gurramok

EricPraline wrote: »

Not to bring things too off-topic, but the average wage across all sectors was €35.8k in August,

Link? Average is unfair on the huge chunk of the workforce who earn nowhere near 30k, median would be a fairer usage term.

EricPraline

riclad wrote: »

if a house needs 80k renovation, its basically a shell,4 walls and a roof..

Idbatterim wrote: »

agree with this, for a normal say 3/4 bed semi, that kind of money should be getting you a total gut job and possibly extension etc also, also finish to a high standard. Dont even see how youd spend 80k to be honest...

No idea where you both are getting your figures, but you're miles off imho. 65k might do a basic renovation on that house, after spending 15k re-plumbing and re-wiring. But your definition of "high standard" must be different to mine. I know of couples currently spending 150k+ on large, high-spec kitchen/dining extensions alone in more salubrious parts of North Dublin. And these would not be at the highest end of the renovation scale.

If you're a labourer/carpenter/electrician yourself, than you'll probably do it cheaper, assuming you have no other work to do for a few months. That's not going to apply to most couples.

An average-sized build in Dublin will still cost you 250k. Sorry, there's no way that renovating a "shell" (including project management overhead) will cost 80k :rolleyes:

Zamboni

gurramok wrote: »

Link? Average is unfair on the huge chunk of the workforce who earn nowhere near 30k, median would be a fairer usage term.

Completely agree - I complete CSO EHECS myself and the average is not a measure that provides any insight into the labour market.

MsG

Just getting back to the original post....apparently (so I'm told by the EA) there's a bid of 301,000 on it now. It seems to be moving very quickly!

Zamboni

MsG wrote: »

Just getting back to the original post....apparently (so I'm told by the EA) there's a bid of 301,000 on it now. It seems to be moving very quickly!

Put in your maximum bid and leave it at that. Phantom bidders and real bidders should have ZERO bearing on what you are prepared to pay for a property.
Unless you have some unique emotional attachment to a property which I am guessing in this case you don't.

Idbatterim

No idea where you both are getting your figures, but you're miles off imho. 65k might do a basic renovation on that house, after spending 15k re-plumbing and re-wiring. But your definition of "high standard" must be different to mine. I know of couples currently spending 150k+ on large, high-spec kitchen/dining extensions alone in more salubrious parts of North Dublin. And these would not be at the highest end of the renovation scale.

If you're a labourer/carpenter/electrician yourself, than you'll probably do it cheaper, assuming you have no other work to do for a few months. That's not going to apply to most couples.

An average-sized build in Dublin will still cost you 250k. Sorry, there's no way that renovating a "shell" (including project management overhead) will cost 80k

i assume they are doing nothing themselves, preparation work, project management etc. If they were, and prepared to source their own workers and pay cash in hand etc, they wouldnt be paying anything like those massive figures... I guarantee you, if you gave me 30-40k, I could totally gut your standard 3/4 bed semi and bring it up to a high standard, that would include new windows... possibly even an extension!

Idbatterim

MsG, have you viewed the house yet?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2012/1018/1224325402410.html

Compelling reasons to extend interest relief

Nothing like a deadline to concentrate the mind. The findings of the latest myhome.iesurvey would indicate a frenzy of first-time buyer activity on the horizon in advance of the December deadline bringing an end to mortgage interest relief.

The survey indicates that 43 per cent of those planning to buy in the next year said they intend to do so in the next three months (63 per cent of first-time buyers surveyed said they intend to buy in the next 12 months).

That’s all very well, but the reality is that many of these potential buyers will miss the tax relief deadline if they are only embarking on the house-buying process now. It takes time to find a home and seal the deal, financing needs to be arranged – and we know how difficult that can be – and then there’s the paperwork and legal issues.

Taking into account that the tax relief measures could be worth up to €27,500 to a couple buying their first home, and faced with the spectre of the new property tax from next year, the case for extending the deadline to accommodate this small flurry of activity in an otherwise moribund market would seem compelling.

Obviously the majority of those surveyed (88 per cent) said they want the deadline extended, but whether the Minister for Finance is listening is another matter entirely.

if the figures can be believed, the 43% wanting to buy in the next 3 months, this would explain exactly why many houses may be making the asking or even slightly more. I reckon its nothing more than a dead cat bounce...

MsG

Thanks again for all of the advice so far. We've viewed the house twice now and would be interested in putting in an offer. I'm told by the EA that there's a bid of 301 on the house and they are looking to close by early next week.... so if we want to get back to her we should do so by Monday. I think that we are going to tell her our maximum bid and then leave it at that and cross our fingers....

Idbatterim

Thanks again for all of the advice so far. We've viewed the house twice now and would be interested in putting in an offer. I'm told by the EA that there's a bid of 301 on the house and they are looking to close by early next week.... so if we want to get back to her we should do so by Monday. I think that we are going to tell her our maximum bid and then leave it at that and cross our fingers....

op id get someone else to view it and see if they are being told same thing, if they are id increase offer by 1k, forget going up in 5 or 10k increments...