Merkel "There will not be any back-dated direct recapitalisation" of eurozone banks.

goodie2shoes

the debt burden is unsustainable so something will have to give.
it seems to me that we as a country have become an irritant to Merkel.
eventually some sort of a deal will be done, but not before she's gotten her election out of the way and not before we have "enjoyed" more austerity.

so for now it's over to Joe in the studio who has been listening to Mary from Clonmel, a shop assistant with SuperValu who owns 28 investment properties she bought during the boom and is now in mega negative equity, and is desperate for assistance from the Govt.

"Yes Mary you're through to LiveLine!"

Long Live THE REVOLUTION!

Anita Blow

bbam wrote: »

I'd say the only party who would follow through on a default are the shinners, I really don't think we want them in power...

And then there is the old chestnut that our internal revenue is way, way short of our expenditure... You would still have this problem.

Hope to god Sinn Fein never see power but I do wish a more moderate party would at least be willing to stand up for their people like they appear to.

Good loser wrote: »

And should Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece default too?

Where would the euro go then?

And the EU?

You confuse noise with light.

Our only, and slight, hope is that we can convince the German people and the Finnish and the Dutch that it would be in their best interests to save us.

The most we'll get from them is €10 bn.

I understand the horrible situation that would arise out of us defaulting, but honestly what other choice do we have as a country?
It's either default, and incur short (relatively), sharp pain but ensure that the future at least is somewhat more prosperous for our future generations, or allow our country to have acted as scapegoat for the entire eurosystem, having incurred a massive debt bailing out banks to prevent contagion across europe and to prevent a collapse of the Euro.
I'm not in any way extremist in my views, and I'm Pro-EU but I just cannot see how the latter can be justified. We simply cannot sustain that big of a debt.
If the euro "goes" after defaulting, then it's not Ireland's fault in the slightest. We've done our part. We accepted the bailout which was purportedly forced upon us to prevent contagion, we ratified the Fiscal Stability Treaty (And so the ESM Treaty too), we've raided our NPRF to help fund the bailout and we've arguably been the best "students" in the IMF/ECB programme with the speed and level of our austerity.

The EU is great at giving a superficial appearance of unity. We as a country took a significant hit in order to prevent contagion spreading to other EU countries which had huge exposure to our banks (UK $224 Billion, Germany $205.8 Billion, France $85 Billion, Italy $29 Billion, Spain $16 Billion) but now that that threat is past, and the public of other EU countries firmly believe that we are in the position that we are because we went "mad borrowing", it's not in the interests of Germany, France, Netherlands etc. to accept some responsibility for the money pumped into our banks.
If the Euro goes it's because EU Countries are only interested in unity when it suits them, and not necessarily when it's needed.

(And to counter any inevitable replies, I completely understand we're running a big budget deficit which is also funded by the bailout. I'm not arguing for us to absolved from this debt as we have legitimately incurred this ourselves. I'm only arguing for the money pumped into our banks to be returned at least partially)

bbam

Anita Blow wrote: »

It's either default, and incur short (relatively), sharp pain

What leads you to believe that it will be short, relatively or not..

We're no where near balancing our books as a country... Anyone who thinks this would be a short or anywhere near short painful event is kidding themselves..

We have a high cost economy, the cost of living is very high. People including high earners are spending to match their earnings.
If there was no money for most SW, no money to pay public servants, no money for infrastructure, in short it would be chaos.
I know people like to spout about halving all the wages of high earners in the PS, but in reality this wouldn't work, its populist nonsense.

We would be starting a chain of events that would lead to mass strikes, higher unemployment, no services. And there would be no going back, no second chance and no safety net. Possibly lasting decades as no one would trust us again with investment

We would be far better stay close to Europe but bargain hard, real hard.

poeticseraphim

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Would it be rude to suggest the OP may have had a tipple?


My reading of the situation with Ireland is that negotiations are going on between Ireland and the ECB on the promissory notes and separately with other EU bodies on the other part of the bank debt to do with the ESM. The ECB confirms this is happening.

Darth Vader Ollie Rehn said so himself on Thursday. Is he lying? Not likely. This is a fuss over nothing in my opinion.

No

It has been established Merkel has emphatically said no renegotiation of bank debt.

It was certain all along really it is a ruse to keep the electorate subdued. Even now the state controlled media is doig damage controll by printing ridiculous spin.

poeticseraphim

To be honest i think the EU wants us gone as the UK is leaving or not as involved. and our economy is so entertwined with theirs.

But we should not give any more sovereigty over to the EU ever.

NIMAN

Its simple economics here, as goodie2shoes says.

We as a country CANNOT ever pay this back, so there's no point in the ECB or the IMF or the EU or even the almighty Lord herself Angela Merkel saying we MUST, cos WE CAN'T (and they rightly know this) so SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO GIVE.

They are only playing politics here, because they know that if Ireland is forced to pay every cent back, we definitely will default and start a whole cascade of mess in Europe and bring it all down.

That's why I think we have a bargaining chip of some sort that we don't seem to be using. Maybe we should call their bluff?

So in summary there are 2 options
1) Ireland is given relief on the bank debt
2) Ireland defaults

unimpressed

its not about if we can keep our standard (fake standard) of living or not anymore WE CANT. So with that clear
1) it time to stop paying the bond holders
2) give mercel and co the ultimatum that we will default in 4 weeks if we dont get an actual physical removal of the bank depts from the national dept

3) GET OURSELVES A DAM GOOD LEADER OF PEOPLE WHO WILL TELL IT HOW IT IS AND LAY OUT A CLEAR PATH FOR THE iRISH NATIONS FUTURE.
UNFORTUNATLY THIS IS WHERE WE STUMMBLE WE DONT HAVE ANYONE AND i MEAN ANYONE LEFT IN THE PUBLIC SPHERE THAT HAS EVEN THE REMOTEST INCLING OF TRUST FROM THE PEOPLE.
The truth is we have to got bakwords to go forwards now and nobody wants to do that as we have all been conditioned to think life is about money and material acusitions
ITS NOT

Good loser

NIMAN wrote: »

Its simple economics here, as goodie2shoes says.

We as a country CANNOT ever pay this back, so there's no point in the ECB or the IMF or the EU or even the almighty Lord herself Angela Merkel saying we MUST, cos WE CAN'T (and they rightly know this) so SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO GIVE.

They are only playing politics here, because they know that if Ireland is forced to pay every cent back, we definitely will default and start a whole cascade of mess in Europe and bring it all down.

That's why I think we have a bargaining chip of some sort that we don't seem to be using. Maybe we should call their bluff?

So in summary there are 2 options
1) Ireland is given relief on the bank debt
2) Ireland defaults

If we balanced our budget this December - that would be a third option.

It would do less damage than 2) - we don't have control over your option 1).

bbam

NIMAN wrote: »

So in summary there are 2 options
1) Ireland is given relief on the bank debt
2) Ireland defaults

I don't think we have a political leader who could bargain point 1.
I really don't think people really understand the implications of point 2.

AllGunsBlazing

bbam wrote: »

I don't think we have a political leader who could bargain point 1.

When it comes to these euro meetings I wonder how often Enda and Noonan are mistaken for the fellas who serve the drinks.

Japer

unimpressed wrote: »

its not about if we can keep our standard (fake standard) of living or not anymore WE CANT.

Its time the german public servants told the Irish public servants sitting across the table that they bare not putting up with the situation where they are paying us so much more than they pay themselves any longer.

Anita Blow

bbam wrote: »

We would be far better stay close to Europe but bargain hard, real hard.

Obviously that would be a far better path to go down, but I'm speaking in the eventuality that we don't get a deal on our debt, as Merkel has pretty much said.
If we don't get a deal, then we should default. It's not a case of should we default, it's a matter of when. Our debt is unsustainable and there's no denying it or skirting around that issue.

gerryo777

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the Germans will continue squeezing us until we sort ourselves out and rightly so.

did ya hear the one about the minister of finance who had no bank account?
or the financial regulator who was given a huge golden handshake after the financial system bankrupted his country?
or the PM who gave an interview and appeared drunk/hungover?
or the finance minister who gave tax breaks to developers when the property market was inflating beyond control?

all these gombeens who run and have run this bankrupt little island.
who voted for them anyhow?

Have a look at this and I think you'll see why the Germans do not share our sense of humour.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/organisations-are-top-heavy-with-high-earners-189877.html

Especially when they see that a Dublin librarian earns more than the prime minister of Spain!
The lunatics have taken over the asylum!

Japer

gerryo777 wrote: »

Especially when they see that a Dublin librarian earns more than the prime minister of Spain!
The lunatics have taken over the asylum!

there are a thousand public servants in this little country (the population of a medium sized continental city ) who earn more than the prime minister of Spain. Give us more money to sustain this and write off our debts, Germany / UK / Denmark / Holland.

NIMAN

bbam wrote: »

I don't think we have a political leader who could bargain point 1.
I really don't think people really understand the implications of point 2.

Irrespective of these points, one of them HAS TO HAPPEN.

goodie2shoes

Japer wrote: »

there are a thousand public servants in this little country (the population of a medium sized continental city ) who earn more than the prime minister of Spain. Give us more money to sustain this and write off our debts, Germany / UK / Denmark / Holland.

indeed most county managers earn more than the Spanish PM. imagine the county manager of Leitrim pulling in more than the PM of a country of over 47 million!!!!!!??:eek::eek:
Spain's GDP = €1.4 trillion. Leitrim's = 5 heifers and a trailer of turf.

also there was a time (not sure if it still pertains) when the Irish Chief of Staff was earning more than the UK equivalent!!!!!

utter madness, and it's time our stupid leaders accepted that it completely undermines what little bargaining position we enjoy.
if people think the average German is unaware of these things, then they better think again.

i'm sure like others you've noticed Germans while on hols. and the one thing that always struck me is just how careful they are when spending their money. i used always joke with my missus that it was best to eat/drink where you saw lots of Germans, cos you could be certain of good value.

Scofflaw

Anita Blow wrote: »

The EU is great at giving a superficial appearance of unity. We as a country took a significant hit in order to prevent contagion spreading to other EU countries which had huge exposure to our banks (UK $224 Billion, Germany $205.8 Billion, France $85 Billion, Italy $29 Billion, Spain $16 Billion) but now that that threat is past, and the public of other EU countries firmly believe that we are in the position that we are because we went "mad borrowing", it's not in the interests of Germany, France, Netherlands etc. to accept some responsibility for the money pumped into our banks.
If the Euro goes it's because EU Countries are only interested in unity when it suits them, and not necessarily when it's needed.

(And to counter any inevitable replies, I completely understand we're running a big budget deficit which is also funded by the bailout. I'm not arguing for us to absolved from this debt as we have legitimately incurred this ourselves. I'm only arguing for the money pumped into our banks to be returned at least partially)

I'm afraid those figures are completely spurious, though. They're derived from the Bank of International Settlements figures, and primarily represent money owed by banking subsidiaries in the IFSC to their parent banks in other EU countries. They are very large multiples of eurozone exposure to our banks, which was probably more like €40bn spread across the whole eurozone at its height, which is to say small change for any individual bank.

Seriously, those figures don't make any sense - they add up to €559bn, which is roughly 6 times the maximum total bond holdings in the guaranteed banks at any time, and also somewhat larger than the entire on-central bank balance sheet liabilities of the covered banks.

Further, none of the bailout money has even been used directly for the banks, the whole recap coming from NPRF and existing Exchequer cash stocks.

The narrative that we bailed out Europe is very comforting, but entirely false. The pressure on us to take a bailout came from the need to credibly and visibly backstop the State, which had failed to staunch the hole in the Irish banks (or even find the bottom of it), had thereby lost its own credibility, and whose banks were absorbing huge amounts of ECB loans without any formal agreement or way of preventing the government making another stupid solo run like the 2008 guarantee. Essentially, we were pressured into a formal arrangement with our creditors because we were drowning in our own self-created banking problems and tying up a huge chunk of ECB resources at a time when they were needed everywhere else. We needed that because we were drowning in the results of the 2008 decision to backstop the "Irish" banks and the fact that our inability to do so had been exposed, along with the fact that our regulatory bodies hadn't even a ballpark idea of how big the hole in our banks the government had committed to filling was.

The bailout stabilised the State's finances, guaranteed that the money would be there to run the State and backstop the banks, and detached us from markets that had no further faith in our credibility. Had we gone with Lenihan's "we can survive for another six months", all we would have achieved would have been to deplete the State's resources, run our market credibility down even further, and probably made our debt that much less sustainable when we were finally bailed out. That we needed the bailout as much as the ECB wanted us to have it meant the ECB was in a position to dictate, as part of the terms, that we continued existing government policy, and honoured the remaining 10% of senior debt still left over after the majority of bondholders were paid off under the 2008 guarantee.

But the only money we were loaned in the bailout was for our needs - for bank recapitalisations that the government had effectively committed itself to when it decided to prop up the "Irish" banks in the first place, and for the government deficit. We didn't bail Europe out - which is, funnily enough, why they keep acting like we didn't.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

Anita Blow wrote: »

Obviously that would be a far better path to go down, but I'm speaking in the eventuality that we don't get a deal on our debt, as Merkel has pretty much said.
If we don't get a deal, then we should default. It's not a case of should we default, it's a matter of when. Our debt is unsustainable and there's no denying it or skirting around that issue.

The debt deal that Merkel appears to have ruled out isn't one which has been on the table, though. There wasn't ever going to be a deal which involved the ESM simply absorbing our debt, because such a deal would mean the other eurozone countries just pay off our bank debt for us. There's nothing in such a deal for the rest of Europe's taxpayers, who are already paying the costs of their own bank bailouts (some of them even courtesy of Irish banking regulation).

The deals that have been possible since June are (1) the ESM buying the State's stake in the banks from the government, which would net us somewhere around €9-10bn and break the sovereign-bank link for the future; and (2) some kind of complicated deal on the promissory notes which winds up extending their term to make paying them down more bearable.

As for our "unsustainable debt" - unluckily, our debt isn't unsustainable. It's very very large, but at peak it's just this side of what's generally agreed to be unsustainable (c. 118% compared to a generally agreed 'unsustainable' of 120%).

We won't get a deal by crying about our debt being unsustainable and threatening to default, either, because the figures everyone is using say it's not unsustainable - which in turn means that a threat to default isn't credible, because the markets will see it as a voluntary and self-serving default, not something actually forced on us by the sheer weight of debt.

Our best route to a deal, like it or not, is by being seen to be complying with our agreements, honouring all our (often regrettable) commitments, and paying all the debt we lumbered ourselves with. That then makes it in everyone's interests to give us a helping hand, because we're showing that it can be done the way everyone is supposed to be doing it.

Meanwhile, people will bitch and moan about the government being useless toady lickspittles, spines, liathroidi, etc etc etc, and all the other fun of the fair - all of which is meaningless, because default is not a realistic option, the debt is not unsustainable, the debt isn't anybody else's debt, and showing that we're willing to stick to the diet is the only way we're going to impress anybody who can give us a helping hand, and who already have.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Dob74

NIMAN wrote: »

Its simple economics here, as goodie2shoes says.

We as a country CANNOT ever pay this back, so there's no point in the ECB or the IMF or the EU or even the almighty Lord herself Angela Merkel saying we MUST, cos WE CAN'T (and they rightly know this) so SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO GIVE.

They are only playing politics here, because they know that if Ireland is forced to pay every cent back, we definitely will default and start a whole cascade of mess in Europe and bring it all down.

That's why I think we have a bargaining chip of some sort that we don't seem to be using. Maybe we should call their bluff?

So in summary there are 2 options
1) Ireland is given relief on the bank debt
2) Ireland defaults

I think it's option 2. When we default the Germans can say we give you time.
Out of the euro now. Join Greece on the scrap heep.
Greece will have to go first. When there is an established way to leave the euro it will be easier to through the rest of the pigs out.

Japer

goodie2shoes wrote: »

indeed most county managers earn more than the Spanish PM. imagine the county manager of Leitrim pulling in more than the PM of a country of over 47 million!!!!!!??:eek::eek:
Spain's GDP = €1.4 trillion. Leitrim's = 5 heifers and a trailer of turf.

also there was a time (not sure if it still pertains) when the Irish Chief of Staff was earning more than the UK equivalent!!!!!

utter madness, and it's time our stupid leaders accepted that it completely undermines what little bargaining position we enjoy.

+1. The public servants do not care that it completely undermines what little bargaining position we enjoy....they just want to continue their existing high pay and pensions. I hope we default soon, because then the government will not be able to borrow the money to pay them.

JoeGil

Scofflaw wrote: »

As for our "unsustainable debt" - unluckily, our debt isn't unsustainable. It's very very large, but at peak it's just this side of what's generally agreed to be unsustainable (c. 118% compared to a generally agreed 'unsustainable' of 120%).

We won't get a deal by crying about our debt being unsustainable and threatening to default, either, because the figures everyone is using say it's not unsustainable - which in turn means that a threat to default isn't credible, because the markets will see it as a voluntary and self-serving default, not something actually forced on us by the sheer weight of debt.


cordially,
Scofflaw

Add to this the fact that close to 20% of the total peak debt will relate to a lifestyle choice in this year and the coming years to borrow to support a standard of living that is way beyond what we are earning makes it very unlikely that there will be a desire by foreign taxpayers to repay this debt.

goodie2shoes

PANIC OVER!

Bill O' Herlihy stated he was totally confident Enda would secure a deal with Angela.

and there was us worrying 'n frettin'.

Phew! Thanks Bill.

Bill is on the phone to Berlin as we speak, "Okey, dokey Angela! I'll tell Enda to put on the crotch-less rubber suit... the one with the little shamrocks. Okey dokey!"

hatrickpatrick

Scoffy are you suggesting that saving Anglo Irish Bank had any benefits for anyone other than its investors? It was not a deposit bank. Nobody's savings would have gone kaput if Anglo had been allowed to fail and those who paid into it been allowed to suffer for their own stupidity instead of passing it on to the rest of us...?

Japer

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Scoffy are you suggesting that saving Anglo Irish Bank had any benefits for anyone other than its investors? It was not a deposit bank.

It actually was, and it was actually supposed to have been regulated too.

gerryo777

It's time we started making noises about the fact that we're going to default at some stage.
All this 'ah sure everything's grand angie baby' is getting us nowhere.
Fact is that if we fully default the Euro would most lightly collapse.
Nobody wants this, not us and most definitely not the Germans.
The Germans need to realise that if the rest of europe is in recession it'll badly effect them too.
I said it 4 years ago and I'll say it now, it's time to play hardball with our so called 'partners' in europe.
Enda getting his hair ruffled and little kisses from merkel is embarrassing at this stage.
Prime the nuclear button enda and be prepared to press it! (metaphorically speaking of course).

goodie2shoes

Japer wrote: »

It actually was, and it was actually supposed to have been regulated too.

absolutely but i have to say that on that fateful night in Sept. '08 whatever about BoI & AIB being of systemic importance, Lenihan should have taken Fingleton & Fitzy and kicked their sorry arses out the door.

sadly Lenihan afforded them a degree of respectability they never deserved, and as they say the rest is history.

Scofflaw

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Scoffy are you suggesting that saving Anglo Irish Bank had any benefits for anyone other than its investors? It was not a deposit bank. Nobody's savings would have gone kaput if Anglo had been allowed to fail and those who paid into it been allowed to suffer for their own stupidity instead of passing it on to the rest of us...?

No, I don't think bailing Anglo out was a good idea - I'd rather the depositors had been saved separately and the bank put into resolution immediately - or after a short delay, given we didn't have a resolution mechanism for banks.

Unfortunately, whatever should have happened, what did happen was that the government (well, Lenihan and Cowen) chose to support all the "Irish" banks, and after not too long found themselves in a position where they had to recapitalise the banks to keep them solvent in order to prevent the guarantee being called in.

cordially,
Scofflaw

goodie2shoes

gerryo777 wrote: »

It's time we started making noises about the fact that we're going to default at some stage.
All this 'ah sure everything's grand angie baby' is getting us nowhere.
Fact is that if we fully default the Euro would most lightly collapse.
Nobody wants this, not us and most definitely not the Germans.
The Germans need to realise that if the rest of europe is in recession it'll badly effect them too.
I said it 4 years ago and I'll say it now, it's time to play hardball with our so called 'partners' in europe.
Enda getting his hair ruffled and little kisses from merkel is embarrassing at this stage.
Prime the nuclear button enda and be prepared to press it! (metaphorically speaking of course).

if Kenny & Co. don't get something concrete from our european friends, then i can see Sinn Fein romping home in the next election. funnily i don't see our european friends patting the shinners on the head and fobbing them off with an empty press release.

personally i think it's a disgrace that the likes of Philip Matthews, and even some of the opposition independent TDs like Stephen Donnelly have not been used in these negotiations. at least they have an understanding of the issues.
if this is truly a national crisis, then all options must be considered.

20Cent

Update from tonight press release from Merkel and Enda.

The Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke together this afternoon.
They discussed the unique circumstances behind Ireland’s banking and sovereign debt crisis, and Ireland’s plans for a full return to the markets. In this regard they reaffirmed the commitment from June 29th to task the Eurogroup to examine the situation of the Irish financial sector with a view to further improving the sustainability of the well performing adjustment programme.
They recognise in this context, that Ireland is a special case, and that the Eurogroup will take that into account.

Might be a tiny bit of good news.

liammur

20Cent wrote: »

Update from tonight press release from Merkel and Enda.

The Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke together this afternoon.
They discussed the unique circumstances behind Ireland’s banking and sovereign debt crisis, and Ireland’s plans for a full return to the markets. In this regard they reaffirmed the commitment from June 29th to task the Eurogroup to examine the situation of the Irish financial sector with a view to further improving the sustainability of the well performing adjustment programme.
They recognise in this context, that Ireland is a special case, and that the Eurogroup will take that into account.

Might be a tiny bit of good news.

That would be very bad news for FF. It seems that they just want us to get nothing so they they will have a stick to beat the government with. A shocking indictment of our politicians and politics.

NIMAN

Is Merkel back-tracking? Surely not.

km79

goodie2shoes wrote: »

PANIC OVER!

Bill O' Herlihy stated he was totally confident Enda would secure a deal with Angela.

and there was us worrying 'n frettin'.

Phew! Thanks Bill.

Bill is on the phone to Berlin as we speak, "Okey, dokey Angela! I'll tell Enda to put on the crotch-less rubber suit... the one with the little shamrocks. Okey dokey!"

This

goodie2shoes

20Cent wrote: »

Update from tonight press release from Merkel and Enda.

The Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke together this afternoon.
They discussed the unique circumstances behind Ireland’s banking and sovereign debt crisis, and Ireland’s plans for a full return to the markets. In this regard they reaffirmed the commitment from June 29th to task the Eurogroup to examine the situation of the Irish financial sector with a view to further improving the sustainability of the well performing adjustment programme.
They recognise in this context, that Ireland is a special case, and that the Eurogroup will take that into account.

Might be a tiny bit of good news.

well at least it says she (they) recognise that we are a basket 'er i mean special case. that's something i suppose. or is it?
i mean i recognise that Zimbabwe is a basket case, but i sure as hell aint gonna invest my hard-earned in Mugabe's Govt bonds.

i would much prefer something more definitive, but she's hardly in a position to give that to us. but at least it's better that the "on yer bike" she "appeared" to give us on Friday.

well done Enda i say.
if nothing else at least the man has staying power.

now start reforming this basket case of an economy, starting with TDs salaries & allowances.

thebman

20Cent wrote: »

Update from tonight press release from Merkel and Enda.

The Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke together this afternoon.
They discussed the unique circumstances behind Ireland’s banking and sovereign debt crisis, and Ireland’s plans for a full return to the markets. In this regard they reaffirmed the commitment from June 29th to task the Eurogroup to examine the situation of the Irish financial sector with a view to further improving the sustainability of the well performing adjustment programme.
They recognise in this context, that Ireland is a special case, and that the Eurogroup will take that into account.

Might be a tiny bit of good news.

That reads to me like your corporation tax rate is causing an instability in your financial sector and we'd like to help recommend ways for you to fix that :P

Leiva

NIMAN wrote: »

Is Merkel back-tracking? Surely not.

Nope.

Nothing more than a 12th hour "oops" to prevent the markets hemorrahaging in the morning.

goodie2shoes

thebman wrote: »

That reads to me like your corporation tax rate is causing an instability in your financial sector and we'd like to help recommend ways for you to fix that :P

yes the problem with the joint communique/statement is it's full of nothing, and is open to all sorts of interpretations,

"Ireland has a highly dysfunctional economy, with a very high cost base. We the German people in conjunction with the troika will participate in assisting the Irish Government restructure, reform and rehabilitate, and offer guidance and moral support where needed."

dvpower

Reading some of the reaction here to the joint statement, I'm left wondering if some people enjoy wallowing in negativity.

Scofflaw

dvpower wrote: »

Reading some of the reaction here to the joint statement, I'm left wondering if some people enjoy wallowing in negativity.

I forget who said it, and indeed it's probably been said by quite a few people - when things are going well for us, then we're the best thing the world has ever seen, and when things go badly for us, it's the end of the world. And that seems borne out both by the bubble, when bad news was unthinkable and anyone bearing it was roundly castigated as a fool and a Cassandra, and the bust, when good news has become unthinkable and anyone bearing it is roundly castigated as a fool and a Pollyanna.

The thing to bear in mind, of course, is that luckily we're not doing anything but talking here...although it's admittedly somewhat depressing when you read back over the reports from people like Honohan and see the prominence they give to exactly this 'groupthink' phenomenon.

cordially,
Scofflaw

uberalles

It would be great to know what is going to happen here. It makes me very nervous of what's next for the economy and life here

goodie2shoes

Scofflaw wrote: »

I forget who said it, and indeed it's probably been said by quite a few people - when things are going well for us, then we're the best thing the world has ever seen, and when things go badly for us, it's the end of the world. And that seems borne out both by the bubble, when bad news was unthinkable and anyone bearing it was roundly castigated as a fool and a Cassandra, and the bust, when good news has become unthinkable and anyone bearing it is roundly castigated as a fool and a Pollyanna.

The thing to bear in mind, of course, is that luckily we're not doing anything but talking here...although it's admittedly somewhat depressing when you read back over the reports from people like Honohan and see the prominence they give to exactly this 'groupthink' phenomenon.

cordially,
Scofflaw

point taken.
i've always said that if we as a country were to be diagnosed with a mental illness, then we would be described as being bi-polar.

we do tend to lurch from the heights of ecstasy to depths of depression rather quickly. our attitude towards the national football team before and after the last WC in poland/ukraine & the recent ecomonic boom & collapse being examples.

that said i fully expect we'll repeat the very same mistakes of the recent past, once we begin (if ever) to see the green shoots of recovery again.

Scofflaw

uberalles wrote: »

It would be great to know what is going to happen here. It makes me very nervous of what's next for the economy and life here

I'd see it as either:

a. we're really screwed, and the national debt is genuinely unsustainable, in which case we will get a deal for the same reason Greece got one

or

b. we're not really screwed, in which case we might get some kind of deal anyway

Despite all the shouting, it's clear that we're not regarded as obviously being in the first category, because we haven't had a deal. So the general view is that we're in the second category, and getting a deal becomes less necessary, and harder because less necessary. All the evidence seems to me to say the latter.

Unfortunately, of course, it's possible for the burden of our debt to be very heavy without being unsustainable, which leaves us in the unenviable position of really wanting a deal but not strictly needing one - and that's actually where I thought we'd turn out to be all along. We've bitten off almost exactly as much as we can chew - it makes us feel like we're choking on debt, but we aren't...just about.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

goodie2shoes wrote: »

point taken.
i've always said that if we as a country were to be diagnosed with a mental illness, then we would be described as being bi-polar.

we do tend to lurch from the heights of ecstasy to depths of depression rather quickly. our attitude towards the national football team before and after the last WC in poland/ukraine & the recent ecomonic boom & collapse being examples.

that said i fully expect we'll repeat the very same mistakes of the recent past, once we begin (if ever) to see the green shoots of recovery again.

Yes...the likelihood is that after a period of denial that we've recovered, everybody will once again get gung-ho and feel like we can do no wrong. In about 2035 or so, I can easily envision an Irish government triumphantly proclaiming the deregulation of the financial sector as the most clever thing ever, while the warnings of our already-bitten generation are brushed aside with "ah, but things are different this time".

I don't want to argue that we should leave things to Europe because we're incapable of managing our own affairs without regularly gambling everything on three-legged horses, but sometimes it does seem like a reasonable approach.

not cynically at all,
Scofflaw

uberalles

The clash Lyrics ...... "Should I stay or should I go" springs to mind.

Thinking of buying a house here as a home but I'm beginning to wonder if I should up sticks and exit Ireland.

To keep having our income reduced year on year while govt pay / pensions are so high is just a piss take. To know that the financial pain of billions has no end in sight is just too much to take.

Good loser

Scofflaw wrote: »

The debt deal that Merkel appears to have ruled out isn't one which has been on the table, though. There wasn't ever going to be a deal which involved the ESM simply absorbing our debt, because such a deal would mean the other eurozone countries just pay off our bank debt for us. There's nothing in such a deal for the rest of Europe's taxpayers, who are already paying the costs of their own bank bailouts (some of them even courtesy of Irish banking regulation).

The deals that have been possible since June are (1) the ESM buying the State's stake in the banks from the government, which would net us somewhere around €9-10bn and break the sovereign-bank link for the future; and (2) some kind of complicated deal on the promissory notes which winds up extending their term to make paying them down more bearable.

As for our "unsustainable debt" - unluckily, our debt isn't unsustainable. It's very very large, but at peak it's just this side of what's generally agreed to be unsustainable (c. 118% compared to a generally agreed 'unsustainable' of 120%).

We won't get a deal by crying about our debt being unsustainable and threatening to default, either, because the figures everyone is using say it's not unsustainable - which in turn means that a threat to default isn't credible, because the markets will see it as a voluntary and self-serving default, not something actually forced on us by the sheer weight of debt.

Our best route to a deal, like it or not, is by being seen to be complying with our agreements, honouring all our (often regrettable) commitments, and paying all the debt we lumbered ourselves with. That then makes it in everyone's interests to give us a helping hand, because we're showing that it can be done the way everyone is supposed to be doing it.

Meanwhile, people will bitch and moan about the government being useless toady lickspittles, spines, liathroidi, etc etc etc, and all the other fun of the fair - all of which is meaningless, because default is not a realistic option, the debt is not unsustainable, the debt isn't anybody else's debt, and showing that we're willing to stick to the diet is the only way we're going to impress anybody who can give us a helping hand, and who already have.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Excellent posts Scoffs if I may say so.

Am I correct in understanding that the bolded paras. are your points of divergence with Peter Matthews, Stephen Donnelly, Shane Ross, Sinn Fein (insofar as they're coherent) etc.?

They claim the ECB forced us to force the banks to pay up on the bonds.
Do you disagree - and how?

goodie2shoes

Scofflaw wrote: »

Yes...the likelihood is that after a period of denial that we've recovered, everybody will once again get gung-ho and feel like we can do no wrong. In about 2035 or so, I can easily envision an Irish government triumphantly proclaiming the deregulation of the financial sector as the most clever thing ever, while the warnings of our already-bitten generation are brushed aside with "ah, but things are different this time".

I don't want to argue that we should leave things to Europe because we're incapable of managing our own affairs without regularly gambling everything on three-legged horses, but sometimes it does seem like a reasonable approach.

not cynically at all,
Scofflaw

2035? i reckon our bi-polar "memory" wont need that long to reboot.
if we get a deal before Christmas, which FG/Lab will hail as the 2nd coming. Then throw in a bit of recovery in the US and the UK in 2013, a few more large FDI job announcements, a few more property reports suggesting prices have not only bottomed but recovered, a continued lack of construction cutting off supply, a Govt. tax break or two to encourage buyers back .................

my God we'll be seeing double digit property inflation by 2013/2014!:D

Idbatterim

what i fail to understand is, say for example Deutsche bank lent AIb, BoI, Anglo etc money and this hasnt been repaid yet, they could easily take a one off "exceptional" hit, they wouldnt have to go to the german taxpayer, they could easily take it, yeah it would hit their share price, but so what, the share price of AIB, BOI etc have been totally decimated and it was deemed as acceptable...

thebman

Scofflaw wrote: »

Yes...the likelihood is that after a period of denial that we've recovered, everybody will once again get gung-ho and feel like we can do no wrong. In about 2035 or so, I can easily envision an Irish government triumphantly proclaiming the deregulation of the financial sector as the most clever thing ever, while the warnings of our already-bitten generation are brushed aside with "ah, but things are different this time".

I don't want to argue that we should leave things to Europe because we're incapable of managing our own affairs without regularly gambling everything on three-legged horses, but sometimes it does seem like a reasonable approach.

not cynically at all,
Scofflaw

Except that much of Europe and the US is in almost exactly the same boat as us especially in relation to de-regulating markets on and off again.

i8mancs

jased10s wrote: »

Im hoping this is the straw that finally gets mass peacefull protest.

We only do mass protest for wars in other countries, as a nation we are the joke of europe, if not the world

goodie2shoes

i8mancs wrote: »

We only do mass protest for wars in other countries, as a nation we are the joke of europe, if not the world

we don't do mass protests in ireland.
we just don't have the weather for it.

uberalles

i8mancs wrote: »

We only do mass protest for wars in other countries, as a nation we are the joke of europe, if not the world

Which protest was that?