Hurricane Sandy Threatens To Slam Northeast U.S. Monday-Tuesday 29th-30th

maquiladora

irishgeo wrote: »

****. Supposed to fly to florida next Wednesday. Tampa to be exact.

It won't be anywhere near Florida next Wednesday, you're grand.

hatrickpatrick

How does a storm get as far north as New York and still qualify as a "hurricane"?
Regardless of wind speed, does it not go through post-tropical transition by then to become an extratropical cyclone? Can one still call it a hurricane after this?

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

How does a storm get as far north as New York and still qualify as a "hurricane"?
Regardless of wind speed, does it not go through post-tropical transition by then to become an extratropical cyclone? Can one still call it a hurricane after this?

Sandy is forecast to go post-tropical/subtropical after day 5 yes. But you can have hurricanes that far north. If you remember Irene in 2011 was tropical over NYC and then became post-tropical later over New England. The NHC classifies them based on whether they believe the system has retained or lost its tropical characteristics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-tropical#Extratropical_transition

hatrickpatrick

maquiladora wrote: »

Sandy is forecast to go post-tropical/subtropical after day 5 yes. But you can have hurricanes that far north. If you remember Irene in 2011 was tropical over NYC and then became post-tropical later over New England. The NHC classifies them based on whether they believe the system has retained or lost its tropical characteristics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-tropical#Extratropical_transition

Right, but supposing the post-tropical storm still manages to retain the same wind speed equivalent to say Category 1 or 2, or "hurricane force winds" as they'd probably say in Ireland, what does one call it? "Extratropical hurricane"?

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Right, but supposing the post-tropical storm still manages to retain the same wind speed equivalent to say Category 1 or 2, or "hurricane force winds" as they'd probably say in Ireland, what does one call it? "Extratropical hurricane"?

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy.

Iancar29

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

How does a storm get as far north as New York and still qualify as a "hurricane"?
Regardless of wind speed, does it not go through post-tropical transition by then to become an extratropical cyclone? Can one still call it a hurricane after this?

No , it could have characteristics of a hurricane but if it the cold pool sucks it up then it will have a cold core , hence then not a hurricane.

Btw... my friends are supposed to be flying to NYC tuesday morning....

Iancar29

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDaLJ3Qdzv4&feature=related

maquiladora

Recon about to head into Sandy. Looks impressive on satellite. Dvorak figures estimate it at Cat 2/3 strength now but we'll see what the actual winds are soon.

maquiladora

Recon has found 110mph flight level winds and they haven't gone into the area with the strongest winds yet.

964mb

hatrickpatrick

maquiladora wrote: »

Recon has found 110mph flight level winds and they haven't gone into the area with the strongest winds yet.

964mb

ETA on when they'll have the full report?

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

ETA on when they'll have the full report?

About 30 mins.

M.T. Cranium

Yes indeed, major storm potential on all models, landfall yet to be decided, Euro further west near southern NJ, GEM and UK more NYC or Long Island, GFS continues to bob and weave further east.

All show a westward swerve after landfall, colder air undercuts and snow potential heavy for inland PA, upper elevations, and WV most elevations, mountains of VA. This snow unlikely to reach coastal plain due to warming in downsloping westerly gales, so a cold rain likely for DC, PHL.

My subjective guess based partly on model consensus is for landfall on Long Island, major or even catastrophic wind and tidal surge around that region including Long Island Sound, wind gusts could exceed 100 mph. It is full moon late 29th (Monday) so storm surge potential is amplified.

Slight chance this fizzles and moves out to sea, but since Sandy is now a very powerful hurricane and accelerating north, more risk of a fast forward situation slamming into the coast Monday (night?) or even Sunday if further south. Home games in NFL for Jets and Philadelphia Eagles could be problematic. This could even disrupt the election to some extent. WV and nearby could see massive snow disruption. Some tracks would be very damaging for Boston. All to be resolved yet. Some part of the northeast is likely to get slammed by this.

maquiladora

Cat 2 inland over Cuba now.


2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 20.1°N 75.9°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

Still a lot of uncertainty on the exact track further ahead.

0Z GEM looks extremely dangerous.

maquiladora

Sandy was very close to Cat 3 status before landfall on Cuba according to the NHC. From the the latest NHC discussion about the track :

THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
DEVELOPING SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND NOGAPS TAKING SANDY
NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 120
HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS MODEL KEEPS SANDY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE U.S. AND OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES.
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TURNED SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 120 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN...AND THE FSU TRACK MODEL.

Redsunset

The sad thing is that a lot of folk won't evacuate this time if it does prove to be a direct hit around New York.

Irene was meh to many last time.

I think it will hit around there and will not go out to sea. Blocking will stop that as will Tony.

This could be the big one for eastern sea board.

Fingers crossed for it to be not as severe

maquiladora

Redsunset, could we merge the two threads?

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Redsunset, could we merge the two threads?

Yeah , sorry about that!


I like this image from accuweather , from reading their blog about the 1991 "the Perfect Storm " , its seems to be a very similar setup but this time theres the full moon to add to it!

Rikand

maquiladora wrote: »

Sandy was very close to Cat 3 status before landfall on Cuba according to the NHC. From the the latest NHC discussion about the track :

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

rsoe actually has it at 3

actually on that alertmap - they have a tropical storm going into east africa - is that a common occurance ?

maquiladora

Pressure up and windspeed down a little due to interaction with Cuba. Back out over water now.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...21.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES

maquiladora

National Weather Service making life easier for tabloid headline writers.

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

maquiladora

Reports of thousands of homes damaged/destroyed in Cuba.

Starting to look very worrying for the US east coast on the models today. Still plenty of time for the models to be wrong though.

12Z GFS is unbelievable.

M.T. Cranium

This morning's model consensus (sorry, it's morning here) 12z model consensus that is, dire potential for the NYC metro area, most of NJ and Long Island, CT. Tracks are converging on a direct hit on this region and central pressures continue to be depicted at 10-15 mb below 200-year record lows so we're talking about potential here for a catastrophic outcome in terms of storm surge (full moon right at landfall) and wind damage. Rainfall problems would be somewhat more scattered and at greater distances from the centre, possibly well to north of the wind damage zone. Snowfall potential looks considerable for higher parts of PA, WV and MD (western).

I will make some more specific predictions when the tracks have converged because right now it's more a question of where than what. The what part of the forecast depends on these very low central pressures being realistic, something that the equivalent to boards.ie/weather (American Weather Forum) is generally split on, but the range of opinions seems to be from moderate to catastrophic damage, almost nobody is now saying no big deal.

This observer could foresee peak wind gusts to 120 mph in areas just to the northeast of landfall and storm surges in Long Island Sound and south shore of Long Island, parts of n NJ at 8-15 feet which in those rather low-lying areas would be a large problem, perhaps not so much catastrophic as long-term suffering because once that water comes in, it may not flush out very quickly with the rivers (in NJ especially) rising from floods and further high tides without much change in wind direction even when the winds abate.

This is almost sure to be a high impact event and perhaps a 1 in 500 year type event although with the 1938 storm being 74 years ago, and a major hurricane in 1821, it depends on your concept of measurement, certainly on the central pressure and regional scale. But it should be stressed that this could potentially yet shift as far southwest as Chesapeake Bay and as far northeast as Nova Scotia, in theory, although my instincts say the tracks are locking into a narrow cone now almost right over NYC.

Iancar29

Seriously lads, what should i advise my friends?... their whole family is due to fly over on tuesday morning ( irish time ) ... , i already told her about it but i think she thinks im over hyping it as she always hears me go on about storms?! ...

I already told my uncle and other cousin that are over their and they said people are thinking of not going to work on the day in NYC!

930 like... that would be 100mph gusts easily right?, that gradient is crazy...

maquiladora

I cannot believe what I am seeing on the 12Z runs.

GFDL...



ECM at just 105 hours...928mb.



I honestly don't know what to say. Surely the models are completely overdoing this?

Green Diesel

They're not over hyping it too much here (yet) in Boston, although there was a feature on the perfect storm on tv, complete with nonchalant fishermen playing down a repeat occurrence (while also tying up their boats).

In a way I'd like to experience an epic event, but then again the houses are made of plywood.

Darwin

Iancar29 wrote: »

Seriously lads, what should i advise my friends?... their whole family is due to fly over on tuesday morning ( irish time ) ... , i already told her about it but i think she thinks im over hyping it as she always hears me go on about storms?! ...

I already told my uncle and other cousin that are over their and they said people are thinking of not going to work on the day in NYC!

930 like... that would be 100mph gusts easily right?, that gradient is crazy...

Here too, wife is flying out Wednesday morning, although at least it is a day later and a decision can be made then (or made for them by the airlines)

maquiladora

Green Diesel wrote: »

They're not over hyping it too much here (yet) in Boston, although there was a feature on the perfect storm on tv, complete with nonchalant fishermen playing down a repeat occurrence (while also tying up their boats).

In a way I'd like to experience an epic event, but then again the houses are made of plywood.

I'd say just be prepared for the possibility to be without power for an extended period of time and listen to National Weather Service etc. It could well turn out not to be anything as severe as the models are showing now, or it could turn out that your area might not be hit badly. But considering what so many of the models are showing now it would be wise to at least be prepared.

M.T. Cranium

Follow the progress of the hurricane here ...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html

animation can be found at bottom of map.

Ian, for now I would advise tell friends flight may be cancelled at the departure site with about 12 hours warning, can assure all here that NYC airports would definitely be closed after noon Monday in almost all current model scenarios (minor detail, N America stays on daylight savings time a couple of weeks longer than you, so time difference temporarily 4 hrs not 5 hrs). BOS might stay open especially if western Euro track verified. Conversely, DCA and PHL would likely close on that track and stay open with delays if northernmost GFS track verifies (in which case BOS gets a direct hit).

My fear is that JFK the main NYC airport may then stay closed for days due to flood or wind damage, same for EWR (Newark) and LGA (La Guardia). Disruption from this may actually follow the Katrina pattern of getting worse after storm leaves. However, there is still some time yet for a different outcome so would advise those friends, 2 in 3 chance at present time their trip delayed and perhaps for several days. Alternate landing sites might not suit their on-going plans, there is some chance of the entire NYC region being essentially blocked to travel for days after this event for a variety of reasons.

BOS could escape this with no more than a moderate wind and rain event if the centre goes south of NYC inland, but a Long Island landfall would mean a marginal disruption (major disruptions a bit further west like Providence RI) and a southeast MA landfall could mean disastrous scenes for BOS. That's the sort of range of outcomes at present. The worst damage both from wind and storm surge will be the 150 miles to the east (or northeast more likely) of the path of the storm centre. It won't be concentrated in the eyewall like a hurricane because of ongoing extratropical transition -- the decision when to call that is going to be skewed by public safety considerations as the public tend to make false assumptions about their safety when NHC says "this no longer a hurricane" just before landfall, better to have a technically inaccurate statement than a million cases of false sense of relief. This can be cleared up after the fact for those who care.

Pherekydes

The time difference will be temporarily 4 hrs, not 6, after this w/e.

M.T. Cranium

Pherekydes wrote: »

The time difference will be temporarily 4 hrs, not 6, after this w/e.

Thanks, my first attempt came to that same conclusion, then I thought maybe it's the other way around, got myself nicely confused thinking about this time zone, (Pacific) then that one (eastern) and the sun sets tonight at 6 pm here and it's 0200 in Ireland then oh brother, my 18-hour days are playing havoc with this M.T. Cranium.