Hurricane Sandy Threatens To Slam Northeast U.S. Monday-Tuesday 29th-30th

Wolfe_IRE

Latest from NOAA

Spindle

This might be of interest to some people the BBC did a program a while back about how New York would fare if a huge Hurricane/Storm hit New York. The piece in the video is about how skyscrapers would fare.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG82ZuUj9zQ

I think the documentary was talking about a Cat 5 hurricane, but from my reading of the models (very part time amateur) if some of them verified could be looking at winds that you would see in a Cat 2/3 hurricane.

Su Campu

Here's the GFDL nested's landfall at New Jersey Tuesday 12Z at <926 hPa! :eek: Winds are at 35 m height



Meanwhile the HWRF nested for the same time is around 26 hPa higher and nowhere near land! Winds are at 10 m height.

Wolfe_IRE

Su Campu wrote: »

Here's the GFDL nested's landfall at New Jersey Tuesday 12Z at <926 hPa! :eek: Winds are at 35 m height

Will it snow in West Clare?

:pac:

Su Campu

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Will it snow in West Clare?

:pac:

Only above 174 m! :P

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

Meanwhile the HWRF nested for the same time is around 26 hPa higher and nowhere near land! Winds are at 10 m height.

HWRF was the only model with that idea. Previous run was 931 and deepening approaching NY. Wouldn't be surprised if it flipped back on the 0Z.



Btw, 12Z ECM at 105 hours on the Weather Underground chart is at 928 hPa...

leahyl

Exciting stuff guys - has his already been picked up by the American media or any media? Haven't heard anything about it outside this thread

This article from the guardian is pretty good :-)

http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/25/hurricanes-sandy-us-east-coast?cat=world&type=article

M.T. Cranium

CNN's chief weather guy (Chad Myers) said in the lead story last hour, that Sandy had the potential to be a billion dollar storm with long term power outages due to wind damage to trees, severe floods and coastal surges, and that it could make landfall anywhere from Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia but that the most likely spot was in New Jersey or Long Island.

I'm just saying that in response to the above poster's question, that would tell you the present level of concern and awareness in the northeast U.S. states. Forecasters and emergency managers are already huddling to discuss strategy both on warnings and details of any evacuations or cancellations necessary but as the models have yet to lock into a consensus track, it's difficult, one track obliterates New Jersey, another one spares it and does the same to Long Island Sound region, yet another threatens mostly Boston and Providence. And there's the remnant slight possibility of a fizzle out.

The general public tended to think that Irene was overhyped although some regions had a worse flooding impact than warned about, but in NYC the surge from Irene was not quite as bad as feared (my own forecast on that wasn't as dramatic). So this factors in because it is feared that the general public in NYC may equate this to Irene, a much different sort of storm really.

This won't come in unforeseen, anyway, the concern is more about overhyping what turns out to be a manageable event, but these models are showing central pressures never seen in the region or on prog charts at this time range, so what's a boy (or girl) to do?

FWIW the NHC track may be too far west (south) and reality may turn out to be closer to NYC which just makes the disaster potential that much greater although different in detail. Anyway, as we say ad infinitum, don't focus on the track, focus on the cone because the track almost never verifies perfectly anyway, but it's usually in the cone.

M.T. Cranium

Calling all mods, this thread needs a title change, would suggest ...

Hurricane Sandy threatens northeast U.S. Monday-Tuesday 29th-30th

and let the stuff about ts 18 and 19 go into cyber-oblivion although it was interesting at the time. Tony, by the way, is done apparently.

maquiladora

National Weather Service is requesting soundings from virtually every station all over US 4 times a day now instead of the usual ones twice daily, to feed as much data as possible in the models. A pro met on a US weather board said they have never seen the NWS request something so extensive before.

leahyl

Oh god I love this - I know it's a bit worrying for those in it's path but I can't help it!

Spindle

Looking at the various models, if I am reading them right, it seems the storm hangs around the area for a long time. So is the duration of the storm going to be a factor as well??

maquiladora

Spindle wrote: »

Looking at the various models, if I am reading them right, it seems the storm hangs around the area for a long time. So is the duration of the storm going to be a factor as well??

Absolutely. That is a big concern.

Iancar29

Holy S*** , im glad i said what i said to my friend earlier! , she wasnt so happy , but i said get insurance as soon as yous go home because its almost a certainty that your flights will be cancelled if some of the models end up being correct!

65mph winds in NYC !?!... gusts over 100mph easily with the tunnelling effect of the high rises!! ..

The big concern id have if i was over there is the potential power cuts as a result ..

maquiladora

Some quotes from the National Weather Service Maryland to put this in perspective.

“What we’re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,” Kocin said in a telephone interview. “We’re not trying to hype it, this is what we’re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.”

“We can say even now our worst fears may be realized,” Kocin said. “If we were seeing what we’re seeing today one day out, we would really be shouting the alarms.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/u-s-east-from-washington-to-nyc-at-risk-from-hurricane-sandy.html

The NWS is not known for hyperbole.

Sponge Bob

maquiladora wrote: »

The NWS is not known for hyperbole.

The other interesting question for the NWS will be 'how come the European model spotted it first' ???

M.T. Cranium

Not really, the North American weather "industry" has acknowledged quite openly for ten years or so that the European model is slightly ahead of the GFS and meanwhile the GEM has caught up. The UK model is also well regarded although tends to be used for consensus building. There is work underway to improve the GFS and to identify reasons for its poor performance which is quite well known in certain situations. The GFS does fine when the weather is "regular" but when it gets a bit high amplitude the tendency is to flip flop from one bogus solution to the right solution or vice versa. There was a phantom snowstorm for the east coast in March 2009 that caused a lot of negative press in the weather business, the Euro did better on that one too.

The only reason the GFS has much of a profile in Europe is that Net-weather have championed it for years, in part because of its very good graphics, but as some of us find to our frustration, they are sometimes very good depictions of wrong model solutions -- so that's just clarifying the path to a wrong forecast.

maquiladora

0Z ECM at just 87 hours out now has this down to 928 about 20 miles from the coast. I still refuse to believe it.

leahyl

This is unbelievable stuff - you can just imagine the scene from the movie - the mayor of New York City warning all citizens to be prepared....

Sponge Bob

Lots of Records set in late october in the US of A.

October 26th 2010

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1674

Yesterday's 28.21" (955 mb) low pressure reading in Minnesota breaks not only the 28.28" (958 mb) previous "USA-interior-of-the-continent-record" from Cleveland, Ohio during the Great Ohio Storm of Jan. 26, 1978 (a lower reading in Canada during this event bottomed out at an amazing 28.05"/950 mb), but also the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the Continental United States aside from the Atlantic Coast.

<snip>

The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading from anywhere in the United States was a 27.35 (927 mb) on Oct. 25, 1977.

Does not say it wasn't an extratropical. I don't know the story myself.

The lowest hurricane pressure reading was the 26.34" (892 mb) recorded in 1935 during the Great Labor Day Hurricane

And a nice piccie of the October 2010 System over the great plains.

maquiladora

06Z GFS initializes Sandy at 983mb when it is actually 968mb at the moment.

0Z ECM on the other hand initialized it at 968mb.

Redsunset

Poor GFS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExuC4mAplkU

---

"It always bothers me that, according to the laws as we understand them today, it takes a computing machine an infinite number of logical operations to figure out what goes on in no matter how tiny a region of space, and no matter how tiny a region of time. How can all that be going on in that tiny space? Why should it take an infinite amount of logic to figure out what one tiny piece of space/time is going to do? So I have often made the hypotheses that ultimately physics will not require a mathematical statement, that in the end the machinery will be revealed, and the laws will turn out to be simple, like the chequer board with all its apparent complexities".

RICHARD FEYNMAN

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not really, the North American weather "industry" has acknowledged quite openly for ten years or so that the European model is slightly ahead of the GFS and meanwhile the GEM has caught up. The UK model is also well regarded although tends to be used for consensus building. There is work underway to improve the GFS and to identify reasons for its poor performance which is quite well known in certain situations. The GFS does fine when the weather is "regular" but when it gets a bit high amplitude the tendency is to flip flop from one bogus solution to the right solution or vice versa. There was a phantom snowstorm for the east coast in March 2009 that caused a lot of negative press in the weather business, the Euro did better on that one too.

Just going by my own experience of model watching, which started in 2007 when I discovered the 'TheWeatherOutlook (TWO) I have a love/hate relationship with the GFS model. It is notorious for over amplifying cold spells in October & November especially. But with this in mind, I think this model came into its own last winter (around January or February - can't remember which) when it stubbornly refused to show an intense cold spell reaching Ireland when other models, including the ECMWF, persistently did. The GFS proved to be spot on, to the dismay of many.

For what it's worth, I think the GFS is probably the best model for picking up on potential pattern jars over the NW continent/Biscay Region. The UKMO seems to have a good record narrowing down Atlantic storm tracks whereas the ECMWF appears to be the best model (to me) for dealing with those slack, flabby systems that tend to meander around aimlessly.

maquiladora

Just to put what some of the models are showing into historical perspective. (I'm not saying this is what will happen, I still think these models are overdoing it.)

Here is the latest 06Z HWRF at 96 hours showing 927mb inland on the Delaware/Maryland border.



The record for the lowest pressure recorded in Delaware is 966mb. For Maryland, the lowest is 971mb, set back in 1932.

I honestly doubt we will ever see the likes of that kind of model output at less than 100 hours for that region of the US again in our lifetime. Truly extraordinary to see.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

Just to put what some of the models are showing into historical perspective. (I'm not saying this is what will happen, I still think these models are overdoing it.)Here is the latest 06Z HWRF at 96 hours showing 927mb inland on the Delaware/Maryland border.

The record for the lowest pressure recorded in Delaware is 966mb. For Maryland, the lowest is 971mb, set back in 1932.

I honestly doubt we will ever see the likes of that kind of model output at less than 100 hours for that region of the US again in our lifetime. Truly extraordinary to see.

That close though Maquiladora? There's a good chance it will happen is there?? That's really incredible that the current record is so much higher than what the models are showing:)

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

That close though Maquiladora? There's a good chance it will happen is there?? That's really incredible that the current record is so much higher than what the models are showing:)

It is almost certainly going to happen at this stage, but the big question is just how bad it will be. It could still turn out to be not very bad.

Spindle

maquiladora wrote: »

National Weather Service is requesting soundings from virtually every station all over US 4 times a day now instead of the usual ones twice daily, to feed as much data as possible in the models. A pro met on a US weather board said they have never seen the NWS request something so extensive before.

With this more frequent data, will they be able to output a better model?

Iancar29

Spindle wrote: »

With this more frequent data, will they be able to output a better model?

Yep thats how some outputs are more accurate than at other times.
The more data they have the more the models will zone in on its track.

maquiladora

It looks like its starting to change structure from tropical to post-tropical.

Spindle

Is that sandy off the coast of Florida now? It looks big.