Hurricane Sandy Threatens To Slam Northeast U.S. Monday-Tuesday 29th-30th

Su Campu

Here's an excellent analysis by Elliot Abrams of Accuweather.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-sandy-to-disrupt-life-for-millions/1925743708001

Rougies

Here's a great article on Sandy from the Eastern PA Weather Authority
http://epawablogs.com/the-great-halloween-hybrid-named-sandy-2/

JJJJNR

I guess we could be getting the tail of this by end of the week.?

Su Campu

JJJJNR wrote: »

I guess we could be getting the tail end of this end by end of the week.?

Doing a theta-e trace on the GFS shows that some residual moisture from Sandy reaches us in the form of a warm front on Monday 5th November. The circulation itself lags behind and spins itself out just off New Foundland. But it is the GFS so anything could happen!

JJJJNR

Thanks ! Could this bring some sort of cold weather our way then or will the gulf stream keep us warm.

Su Campu

JJJJNR wrote: »

Thanks ! Could this bring some sort of cold weather our way then or will the gulf stream keep us warm.

That's just a warm front, similar to that which is affecting us tonight actually. By the looks of that one run there would already be cold air in place, so the arrival of that front could mean some initial snow before turning to rain.

But it's just one run of one model 9 days away.

Su Campu

Ship WKAW at 21Z was at 32.4N 77.5W in 10 metre waves and 8 metre swell, with winds down slightly to 63 knots. Pressure 987.0 hPa.

BBXX WKAW 27214 99324 70775 41194 80263 10222 20221 49870 55005 78266 887//
22202 00270 20920 308// 41016 5//// 6//// 80221 ICE /////=

Also, this is being hyped because it's threatening the US east coast, but let's not forget that it's already killed at least 40 people in the Caribbean. They're no less important than those in the US.

Su Campu

The centre is just about to pass very close to or over buoy 41002.

Note that this has 3 anemometers, at 5, 10 and 20 metres. Max winds earlier were 38, 41 and 45 knots, respectively, showing that when it comes to looking at ship readings, which can be from anemometers at 30-40 metres, there is an appreciable change of around 1% per metre above the standard 10 metre height. Some oil platforms can report winds at heights of 100-150 metres, such as the Kinsale platform, which is at I think 120 metres, but the percentage increase per metre is less the higher you go. This needs to be beared in mind when looking at observations.

maquiladora

The huge windfield continues to expand.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM.

Thats almost 100 miles further than this afternoon.

M.T. Cranium

NAM has updated the 00z run and takes the centre into n/c NJ almost right over Sandy Hook (that's a spit of land pointing at Manhattan from the south) at 03z Tuesday. The NHC track has shifted a bit to the northeast to respect the weight of model consensus since 18z. This is really significant for Delaware Bay and perhaps Atlantic City which will be wanting every northward mile they can get from Sandy's landfall especially if it comes in from the east, a gliding track up the coast shifting means less (to them).

A somewhat similar storm set-up without a tropical cyclone involved can be found back in November 1950. So that one does provide analogues for the inland northeast snowfall potential in particular. The similarity was the strength of blocking over eastern Canada and the interaction with a low moving NNW curving NW.

One forecast which will definitely verify is this -- MTC will be in an advanced state of sleep deprivation in the 36-48h time frame and I just learned that my apartment building (where I live that is) has scheduled a 4-6 hour power outage to upgrade the electrical grid. I guess I will be raiding the petty cash for those internet terminals where you pay to look (never had a working laptop believe it or not).

Pangea

Imagine if this had happened on election day...

maquiladora

Back when it was at 5.2 earlier, Dr Jeff Masters called that exceptionally high.

Hurricane Ike was a 4.6 on that scale approaching landfall.

maquiladora

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

The tropical storm force windfield is huge at the moment.

Spindle

Pangea wrote: »

Imagine if this had happened on election day...

I am sure they will use this as an example of either how good/bad they are with their federal response etc etc. Nothing is out of bounds in politics when you have a chance to make your opponent look bad.

Su Campu

TAFs for the big airports in the New York area, valid up to 12Z or 18Z Monday (as shown in the first line, eg. 2812/2918). The format in the US is different, so FM291500 means "from 1500Z on the 29th". Strongest winds marked in bold.

JFK
TAF KJFK 281126Z 2812/2918 05015G21KT P6SM OVC020 FM281400 04017G25KT
P6SM OVC020 FM281900 03020G30KT P6SM OVC020 FM282200
02022G35KT 6SM -RA OVC020 FM290800 02030G42KT 6SM -RA
OVC015 FM291500 02040G55KT 5SM -RA OVC010=

NEWARK
TAF KEWR 281126Z 2812/2918 04012G20KT P6SM OVC020 FM281600 03015G21KT
P6SM OVC020 FM282200 03020G28KT 6SM -RA OVC020 FM290900
02024G34KT 6SM -RA OVC015 FM291500 02030G48KT 5SM -RA
OVC010=

LA GUARDIA
TAF KLGA 281126Z 2812/2912 05020G26KT P6SM OVC020 FM281900 04022G30KT
P6SM OVC020 FM282200 03022G35KT 6SM -RA OVC020 FM290800
02030G42KT 6SM -RA OVC015=

PHILADELPHIA
TAF AMD KPHL 281025Z 2810/2912 03013G20KT P6SM -RA SCT035 OVC070
FM281600 03015G25KT 6SM -RA BR OVC015 FM282000 02016G26KT
5SM -RA BR OVC010 FM290300 02020G30KT 3SM RA BR OVC008
FM291000 35022G32KT 2SM RA BR OVC004=

MCGUIRE AIRFORCE BASE
TAF AMD KWRI 2810/2916 05010G15KT 9999 BKN150 QNH2977INS
TEMPO 2810/2815 05015G25KT
BECMG 2814/2815 05015G25KT 4800 RA BKN010 OVC015 540209
QNH2966INS
BECMG 2822/2823 05020G35KT 4800 RA BKN010 OVC015 510002
540209 QNH2936INS
BECMG 2909/2910 34020G40KT 3200 RA OVC005 510002 540309
QNH2921INS
BECMG 2912/2913 35035G50KT 1600 +RA OVC005 550009 QNH2900INS
T16/2818Z T10/2911Z AMD 281059=


There are tonnes more airports in more prone areas but have no TAFs issued for them.

Spindle

maquiladora wrote: »

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

This is what NYC Mayor Bloomberg has to say about Sandy and the fact they feel they don't need to order any evacuations. They are still reeling from Irene last year and don't want to make any moves on it. I hope this doesn't turn out to be a mistake.

"We're making that decision based on the nature of this storm. Although we're expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or a hurricane-type surge," he said. "With this storm we'll likely see a slow pileup of water, rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect from a hurricane and which we saw with Irene 14 months ago."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203922804578083410823954952.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

maquiladora

The surge heights have increased on the latest advisory too.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO
11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY...3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

redsteveireland

People taking risks as Sandy brushes past North Carolina.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leb1IG5EdEg

It was also mentioned on Fox that bad weather would benefit Obama because the Independents who are currently backing Romney are less likely to go out and vote.

maquiladora

Spindle wrote: »

This is what NYC Mayor Bloomberg has to say about Sandy and the fact they feel they don't need to order any evacuations.

They are waiting until 6pm EST to decide on evacuations. Probably waiting until they have a higher confidence in what will happen.

Sponge Bob

In the last 12 hours it dropped from c 961 to 951 . Ugly and dangerous system this ....could be sub 940 on landfall whatever about 92xx

fits

Well one comfort is that they were expecting it to intensify about now werent they?

Spindle

maquiladora wrote: »

The surge heights have increased on the latest advisory too.

If that came off it would cause a lot of damage. During Irene I remember seeing reports that the tide was about to the top of flood defenses. The storm surge then was measured between 3.2 and 4.7 ft.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Hurricane_Irene_Water_Level_and_Meteorological_Data_Report.pdf

maquiladora

fits wrote: »

Well one comfort is that they were expecting it to intensify about now werent they?

The official forecast is for a small increase in windspeed in about 24.

The GFS has it at 965 now, not reaching 951 for another 24 hours.
The ECM has it getting down to 956 at midnight tonight, but its already below that now. So the pressure is lower now than the models thought, but it might just be that things are happening faster than expected and will still end up with something similar to the models at landfall.

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

In the last 12 hours it dropped from c 961 to 951 . Ugly and dangerous system this ....could be sub 940 on landfall whatever about 92xx

NOAA analysis only has a fall of 1.0 hPa in the last 9 hours 12z should be out in the next hour but on 9z they had the low at 960hPa.

Su Campu

So the crazy output of the models a couple of days ago was just that - crazy. We'll now have a windstorm of just typical Nor'easter proportions, the only difference will be the flooding.

Meteorologically it's become a lot less interesting, hydrologically it's still a big one.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

NOAA analysis only has a fall of 1.0 hPa in the last 9 hours 12z should be out in the next hour but on 9z they had the low at 960hPa.

It's been at 960 since the 1100 PM EDT advisory last night until the 500 AM EDT one this morning. 951 then at 800 AM EDT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/SANDY.shtml

thomasj

Just to mention Google has postphoned a conference planned for new York this coming Monday due to the hurricane. They were expected to unveil a number of devices including their next Google phone.

http://www.gsmarena.com/google_cancels_october_29_event_due_to_hurricane-news-5007.php

Sponge Bob

I'm quoting dropsonde readings from the NOAA and so is Maq from what I can see. Others are quoting model outputs.

Wicklow Weather

Currently 951mb and dropping very fast according to Fox News.

Wicklow Weather

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

Currently 951mb and dropping very fast according to Fox News.

Then I just caught this on Twitter "Air Force recon reports min. central pressure of 955 mb from dropsonde. Appears earlier pressure drop has stabilized for now. - Hurricane Central / Weather Channel (@twc_hurricane)