DONEGAL’S FAMOUS WEATHERMAN PREDICTS SNOW BEFORE CHRISTMAS!

ZX7R

Gambas wrote: »

August was busy, bulk of the summer wasn't AFAIK. Certainly couldn't describe it as dominating the summer weather.

I don't think the postman ment that the three months of summer would be wall to wall thunder storms.i tough there was more thunder around my parts this summer than last year thats only my view i cant back it up

doccy

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Whether I agree with his forecasting techniques or not, people need to be clear about his recent track record.

Report in Irish Examiner from May 2012:
Michael Gallagher, Postman, Donegal


"The signs are not good for a warm sunny summer."

Not exactly a great stretch in Ireland. Not necessarily dissing the guy ... but keeping it real.

okfine

Please be right Mr.Postman,I've a dog that'll be very hungry if you're wrong

Wolfe_IRE

doccy wrote: »

Not exactly a great stretch in Ireland. Not necessarily dissing the guy ... but keeping it real.

Our current debate about is he talking through both sides of his mouth or not is summed up by this story...

It's late Autumn, and the Indians on a remote reservation in South
Dakota asked their new chief if the coming winter was going to be cold
or mild.

Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the
old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the
winter was going to be like.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the
winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village
should collect firewood to be prepared.

But, being a practical leader, after several days, he got an idea.

He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and
asked,'Is the coming winter going to be cold?'

'It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold,' the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even
more firewood in order to be prepared.

A week later, he called the National Weather Service again.. 'Does it
still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?'

'Yes,' the man at National Weather Service again replied, 'it's going
to be a very cold winter.'

The chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect
every scrap of firewood they could find.

Two weeks later, the chief called the National Weather Service again.
'Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?'

'Absolutely,' the man replied. 'It's looking more and more like it is
going to be one of the coldest winters we've ever seen.'

'How can you be so sure?' the chief asked.

The weatherman replied, 'The Indians are collecting a s**tload of firewood.


**********************

By the way, I spotted this

Postman V Student last March
http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/forecasters_head_to_head_over_sunshine

M.T. Cranium

Or this story about a certain Roger Smith, forecaster ...

As Sandy approached NYC, he posted on various occasions rather dire warnings of doom based on the global models. A certain person posted that this was needless fearmongering, despite the fact that about fifty respected mets were saying more or less the same thing. The day before the storm, this poster was observed packing up his SUV and leaving town. "I just can't take the fearmongering any more," he said, "and besides, any idiot can see that a 940 mb low is about to move in here."

kstand

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20083813

2 years ago I remember seeing a piece like this on Kew Gardens, about the vibrancy of the colours of the leaves at this time of year. It didnt really happen last year but it has happened again this year. Interesting to see now if we get another winter along the lines (though maybe not as harsh) as 2010, see perhaps if there is some correlation between the 2.

Sponge Bob

We have a very simple forecasting rubric in Galway City.

When you can see the Aran Islands from the city that means it is going to rain and when you can't it is raining.

Sparks

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We have a very simple forecasting rubric in Galway City.
When you can see the Aran Islands from the city that means it is going to rain and when you can't it is raining.

You stole that from Tralee and the Slieve Mish hills

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We have a very simple forecasting rubric in Galway City.

When you can see the Aran Islands from the city that means it is going to rain and when you can't it is raining.

I lived in Galway for many a year don't recall ever seeing the Aran Islands! (my eyesight not the best though) I have heard it said that if the hills on the over side of the bay look especially vivid and 'near', then rain is on the way. But this is Galway, rain is always on the way!

Idir talamh s speir

Its true about the berries on the trees in the hills around Donegal, I live there as well and was only saying to myself would you look at them berries, and they are a feast for birds and not being eaten....I was wondering why so many berries and maybe its because there might be fewer birds now to eat them given the cold summer we had...dont know if the berries mean there will be snow, but there is a good chance of snow anyway in Donegal

Maudi

homersimpson wrote: »

Donegal’s famous amateur weatherman has predicted the county is set to shiver from a series of cold snaps this winter.



Postman Michael Gallagher has said he is “99% sure” the country will suffer heavy falls of snow – before Christmas.

Mr Gallagher, who makes his predictions by studying plants and animals, has written a best-selling book ‘Traditional Weather Signs”.

In his first prediction this year, the postman says the country will shiver in the coming weeks.

“I have never seen as many berries on the trees in the mountains and the birds are singing very loudly in recent days.

“I have never seen as clear a day as I saw this week and that is not a good omen.

“The abundance of berries is a sure sign that temperatures are going to plunge in the winter. We’re in for a cold one. And I’m 99% sure we’ll have plenty of snow,” he said.



Mr Gallagher famously forced bookmaker Paddy Power to pay out more than €70,000 when he correctly predicted a white Christmas three years ago.

However the forecaster from Glenfin says it is too early to say whether we are in for a white festive season.

“I don’t think it will be as tough as a couple of years ago but it will get cold very soon.

“I can’ say just yet if we will have a white Christmas but we’ll almost certainly have plenty of snow before Christmas.

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/10/23/donegals-famous-weatherman-predicts-snow-before-christmas/

bring it on .i love sneachta

Cantona's Collars

Snow in Northumberland today.

ednwireland

took this a couple of weeks ago on the back lanes here in donegal

there were alot of berries on the trees

planetX

:mad:

the tree would have had to plan it's bumper berry harvest last Spring - so they can forecast a year ahead now?
It means that there is other food available for birds right now. Rowan berries are not the first choice...
trees do not see into the future.

stevenmu

planetX wrote: »

:mad:

the tree would have had to plan it's bumper berry harvest last Spring - so they can forecast a year ahead now?

I don't see why not.

Looking at it hypothetically for a moment, lets assume that producing extra berries confers some advantage on the plants during a cold winter, and that a cold winter typically tends to follow a mild one. It's then easy to see how plants which have some trait which makes them start producing more berries after a mild winter would win out over ones which do not.

Obviously that's a simplified scenario with contrived assumptions, and in real life the patterns would be much more complex. But, it would be far from the weirdest or most nuanced behaviour that evolution has thrown up.

Nabber

Weather is a just one big chain reaction. We just don't know how to read it accurately. So many variables. Who's to say plants don't know how to read the signs, then again plants animals may get it wrong just like us.

I still find it surprising how male dominated the weather forecasting is.

All the best to the postman

M.T. Cranium

Male dominated in the back room parts (forecast offices) but more equal nowadays in the front room (presentation) and that does involve some forecasting skill depending on what organization -- it remains somewhat of an urban legend to speak of the comely lass who warns of us the "low front" in entirely non-ironic terms.

The male domination can be explained by several variables, I think. Females who might find weather science interesting are probably more drawn to research and this is influenced by the "cool" nature of climate science in modern culture. Another factor, having a longer applicability, is the known reluctance of females to get into frequent slinging matches with a lot of headstrong men which would describe the reality of any forecast office (even some with one inhabitant).

Another reason is related to common sense. Women tend to have most of that.

planetX

stevenmu wrote: »

I don't see why not.

Looking at it hypothetically for a moment, lets assume that producing extra berries confers some advantage on the plants during a cold winter, and that a cold winter typically tends to follow a mild one. It's then easy to see how plants which have some trait which makes them start producing more berries after a mild winter would win out over ones which do not.

Obviously that's a simplified scenario with contrived assumptions, and in real life the patterns would be much more complex. But, it would be far from the weirdest or most nuanced behaviour that evolution has thrown up.

very simplified, and would be easily predicted without needing magic berries to guide us. There is no advantage to the trees in producing extra berries in a cold winter - berries will eventually be eaten and the seeds distributed no matter what the weather. The tree is dormant for the winter, it makes no difference what the weather is like until spring. You'd probably have the same success if you predicted weather with tarot cards.

gbee

planetX wrote: »

very simplified, and would be easily predicted without needing magic berries to guide us.

I'm over 50, I never considered them magic berries but I've used my own nature observations on these boards to dispute some forecasts for my area.

I don't think anyone knows the how, most don't want to because it opens the possibility of other intelligences being attributed to non sentient lifeforms, ie; plants.

Many people can't grasp the fact that a Spring could happen for two weeks in February and Summer arrives for a weekend in April and returns in September for a week with Winter occupying the rest of the spaces.

No. Too many people WANT summer in summer, ie May, June and July and WANT sunshine and warm winds and balmy nights.

There are many signs, they can enhance a local forecast or contradict one, the observer can be prepared for a winter's day or a day at the beach.

ednwireland

planetX wrote: »

:mad:

the tree would have had to plan it's bumper berry harvest last Spring - so they can forecast a year ahead now?
It means that there is other food available for birds right now. Rowan berries are not the first choice...
trees do not see into the future.

i should have been more specific, i just thought they looked nice, but they do seem to have ripened at the same time, some years you hardly see them.

as to weather prediction - no

gaius c

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

:pac::pac:

There is an argument for nature giving signs, that's if you are able to read the signs. His track record is better than most it must be said. Personally, i believe in technology but the questions must be asked, what did people use before technology to forecast?

Loads and loads of berries last year but no snow.
As one poster here said, "nature reacts to weather. It doesn't predict it".

Planet X

ednwireland wrote: »

i should have been more specific, i just thought they looked nice, but they do seem to have ripened at the same time, some years you hardly see them.

as to weather prediction - no

A different Planet X just in case................:D

ednwireland

Planet X wrote: »

A different Planet X just in case................:D

theres more than one aaaaaaagh ................... runs away

Mr Bumble

this is my first post although i've read and followed for a long time ..... this debate is particularly appealing and while I feel it's entirely natural that those who have invested a lot of time and effort in a proof based scientific method would scoff at the notion that a berry has as much predictive power as a battery of complex weather models, i do believe there are signs in nature which suggest rather than predict and that all animals, including ourselves, are attuned to a greater or lesser degree.
I fish more often then I should and mainly for sea trout. Observation over many seasons has led me to the certainty that sea trout and salmon will react a day in advance to oncoming rain. I've seen it happen far too often to be coincidence.
I'm not so sure about the berries though. If there's a bad frost in my fruit patch at the wrong time (flowering), i won't get as many apples as I will when spring is warm and bees plentiful. That's just one of many variables which impact on plant growth and this applies in the lanes of donegal as much as it does in Wicklow.
The notion that an ash tree with a lot of berries 'knows' that a bad winter is coming and has over produced to compensate doesn't appear to take any account of the fact that the berries are there because the growing season conditions were conducive to plentiful berry growth. Put simply, hindsight rather than foresight will provide you with a definitive explanation.
That said, I'm sure the postman's observations are layered on top of historical observations stretching back through the community folklore of his area and perhaps he has an instinctive ability to read patterns in the countryside which most of us have lost.
I'd like to think that the postman is tuned into something 'other' and I don't think the world is poorer for his predictions.

jeltz

The Postman is highly regarded in Ulster and has been featured in all the big papers and tv on both sides of the community for years.

Thats because he has an excellent track record of prediction for the region.

He usually says he takes a blend of a lot of natural factors. A long list of factors of which berries are just one part of the equation. Journalists oversimplify what he says, he has said in the past he is always keeping a lookout for these signs everyday when he does his rounds and it all goes into his forecasts.

It would take centuries to make a mathematical model that could capture the complexity of his experience and thinking using the same data. Sadly when he passes on I don't think there will be anyone to replace him.

ednwireland

jeltz wrote: »

Thats because he has an excellent track record of prediction for the region.

i'd love to see a list of his predictions and the result because up until 2010 i remember him being consistently wrong, it could be that i only remember the wrong uns. but then i've only been here 15 years

talkabout

jeltz wrote: »

The Postman is highly regarded in Ulster and has been featured in all the big papers and tv on both sides of the community for years.

Thats because he has an excellent track record of prediction for the region.

He usually says he takes a blend of a lot of natural factors. A long list of factors of which berries are just one part of the equation. Journalists oversimplify what he says, he has said in the past he is always keeping a lookout for these signs everyday when he does his rounds and it all goes into his forecasts.

It would take centuries to make a mathematical model that could capture the complexity of his experience and thinking using the same data. Sadly when he passes on I don't think there will be anyone to replace him.

As someone who lives in Donegal, I honestly can't say that he is highly regarded. I think most people I know look at his predictions as a bit of fun and a novelty. I also think your stretching it to say his track record is excellent but I do appreciate his efforts and I look forward to hearing his predictions.

redsteveireland

talkabout wrote: »

As someone who lives in Donegal, I honestly can't say that he is highly regarded. I think most people I know look at his predictions as a bit of fun and a novelty. I also think your stretching it to say his track record is excellent but I do appreciate his efforts and I look forward to hearing his predictions.

Why is your text black? I can hardly see it with the Dark setting?

torrential1

redsteveireland wrote: »

Why is your text black? I can hardly see it with the Dark setting?

This postman guy got it right once... Consistently wrong before that eg. He predicted severe snowy winters in 2005 2006.. Neither materialised. Its a bit of fun and while I think it is great that someone like him is so observant and appreciates the beauty of changing seasons and nature, it is utter nonsense to base long range weather forecasts on these observations.

gothwalk

torrential1 wrote: »

This postman guy got it right once... Consistently wrong before that eg. He predicted severe snowy winters in 2005 2006.. Neither materialised. Its a bit of fun and while I think it is great that someone like him is so observant and appreciates the beauty of changing seasons and nature, it is utter nonsense to base long range weather forecasts on these observations.

Is there any record anywhere of his pre-2010 predictions?