DONEGAL’S FAMOUS WEATHERMAN PREDICTS SNOW BEFORE CHRISTMAS!

talkabout

redsteveireland wrote: »

Why is your text black? I can hardly see it with the Dark setting?

No idea, it looks fine on my screen??

jamo2oo9

gothwalk wrote: »

Is there any record anywhere of his pre-2010 predictions?

On the Wikipedia page, it says that he was 99% certain that we would have a white Christmas in 2010. I think he only started telling the country of his predictions from 2010.. Someone can clarify this.

redsteveireland

torrential1 wrote: »

This postman guy got it right once... Consistently wrong before that eg. He predicted severe snowy winters in 2005 2006.. Neither materialised. Its a bit of fun and while I think it is great that someone like him is so observant and appreciates the beauty of changing seasons and nature, it is utter nonsense to base long range weather forecasts on these observations.

I think you quoted the wrong post?

okfine

Seems he may have been correct as today their were reports of snow falling

Iancar29

okfine wrote: »

Seems he may have been correct as today their were reports of snow falling

its not unusual though to have snow in october... sorry , he still doesn't get a blue peter badge from me just yet... :rolleyes:

okfine

Iancar29 wrote: »

its not unusual though to have snow in october... sorry , he still doesn't get a blue peter badge from me just yet... :rolleyes:

Its November

jeltz

okfine wrote: »

Its November

It snowed in Donegal last week. :cool:

jeltz

Thinking about his accuracy, it occurred to me that I only remember his mild winter predictions. We are always prepared for bad weather anyway. He does seem to have an excellent record for calling milder winters.

okfine

jeltz wrote: »

It snowed in Donegal last week. :cool:

uberalles

He won 70k from paddy power? What were the odds? Was it snow on Xmas day bet?

davidsr20

In fairness the postman has alway been on the ball with his weather predictions,even last year he said we were in for a mild or below average winter and he was spot on

jeltz

davidsr20 wrote: »

In fairness the postman has alway been on the ball with his weather predictions,even last year he said we were in for a mild or below average winter and he was spot on

He said it would be mild.

That means it did get cold at times as always but did not last months on end, which costs us an amount in heating that I would rather forget.

davidsr20

jeltz wrote: »

He said it would be mild.

That means it did get cold at times as always but did not last months on end, which costs us an amount in heating that I would rather forget.

It was not at all cold last winter,I can only recall a few days frost.

jeltz

It did get cold here, there was weeks of snow on the hills. Still, not as expensive as previous years, so it couldn't have been that bad!

catch.23

davidsr20 wrote: »

In fairness the postman has alway been on the ball with his weather predictions,even last year he said we were in for a mild or below average winter and he was spot on

Well that covers most eventualities . . .

Anyway predicting a mild winter in Ireland isn't anything special, it's statistically very likely that it won't be cold and snowy.

Rasmus

uberalles wrote: »

He won 70k from paddy power? What were the odds? Was it snow on Xmas day bet?

He didn't win, he allegedly caused Paddy Power to pay out to folks who allegedly bet on snow due to his predictions.

Joe Public

catch.23 wrote: »

Well that covers most eventualities . . .

Anyway predicting a mild winter in Ireland isn't anything special, it's statistically very likely that it won't be cold and snowy.

It is special when many people are tuned in to his predictions and checking his successes and failures.

Long range forecasting is generally hit and miss but the Donegal postman is scoring more hits than misses.

Let he who has a better record cast the first snowball

catch.23

Joe Public wrote: »

It is special when many people are tuned in to his predictions and checking his successes and failures.

Long range forecasting is generally hit and miss but the Donegal postman is scoring more hits than misses.

Let he who has a better record cast the first snowball

I didn't say his predictions weren't accurate, just pointed out that anyone (not just him) who predicts a mild winter is likely to be proved right on the basis of our climate.

Deep Easterly

Statistically, milder and drier than average winters occur more frequently than any other type in Ireland. Wet winters occur less frequently as do cold ones. Only basing this stat on data from Mullingar but gives a fairly good idea.

More detailed post from last year:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=73812585&postcount=117

Mr Bumble

Does the postman write things down, I wonder? If it's all in his head and we're relying on the annual Donegal Democrat piece for comparison, we're also relying on the interpretation of what he says or the weighting the journalists gives to one aspect (generally snow) of his prediction.
If he hasn't written it down, has anyone else collated. Words fly on the wind and even though he doesn't have charts, it would be worth tracking him back over a number of years if that was possible. Various vague declarations that he's right more than he's wrong won't win a debate. Would be good to have a better reference point than that.

Joe Public

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Does the postman write things down, I wonder? If it's all in his head and we're relying on the annual Donegal Democrat piece for comparison, we're also relying on the interpretation of what he says or the weighting the journalists gives to one aspect (generally snow) of his prediction.
If he hasn't written it down, has anyone else collated. Words fly on the wind and even though he doesn't have charts, it would be worth tracking him back over a number of years if that was possible. Various vague declarations that he's right more than he's wrong won't win a debate. Would be good to have a better reference point than that.

You can't pigeon hole nature.

Snowc

Go to bed Joe your drunk.

Daniel2590

Snowc wrote: »

Go to bed Joe your drunk.

What about his drunk?

V1

Postman on 2fm right now. Going to be a "very hard winter"

gbee

Remember two years ago the postie was in trouble with local garden centres that threatened to close down because of posties predictions.

I made all the news and radio chat shows across the country. He predicted a hard winter 2010/11 in October/November of that year and no body in the Donegal area bought winter plants and the garden centres had no Christmas Dinner that year.

Sponge Bob

I think that 'garden centre spat' happened last year. Hopefully they consulted with Michael BEFORE they bought stock this year.

Time to reread Monbiots Article on Ukrainian Mail Order Brides and their weather forecasting skillz again some of ye.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/26/weather-forecasters-daily-mail

We had about 10 winter threads by end October based on Exactaweathers predictions alone...in 2011

Pangea

gbee wrote: »

Remember two years ago the postie was in trouble with local garden centres that threatened to close down because of posties predictions.

I made all the news and radio chat shows across the country. He predicted a hard winter 2010/11 in October/November of that year and no body in the Donegal area bought winter plants and the garden centres had no Christmas Dinner that year.

That was last year, What happened was that they were all blaming the Postman for predicting a hard winter when infact he never did. The man gets an awful lot of abuse for 'predicting things he never never did'
Only a few days ago someone said to me 'Ah sure didnt he predict snow last year in October"
Me: No, No he did not. :rolleyes:

This post best sums that fiasco up

Coles wrote: »

The predictions of a hard winter (as started by John Madden of Exacta Weather and widely reported in the print media) have sparked a furore on LiveLine because the garden centre businesses have seen a fall off in business. The Donegal postman Michael Gallagher has had to come on to say it was nothing to do with him, but that doesn't stop Joe Duffy from repeating the allegation.

The more you listen to Joe the more thick he seems to be. I know it's all an act, of course. Genius.

Also remember Evelyn Cusask on the Saturday night show last winter implying the Postman had made a prediction for a Cold Winter too.

Pangea wrote: »

Evelyn said last night that the Postman was sending people into a tizzie and getting people worried and that it was irresponsible, especially older people who are worried that they are in for a hard winter of 3 months of cold.
Someone should tell her that the Postman was one of the few that didn't forecast a severe winter. Misrepresenting someone on national TV like that is bad form in my opinion.
.

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We had about 10 winter threads by end October based on Exactaweathers predictions alone...in 2011

Very true. In related news 'DD' seem to have removed that article from last year which read 'Worst Winter ever on the way as -20 to hit the County'. Somebodys watching us

Pangea wrote: »

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2011/10/10/revealed-worst-winter-ever-on-way-to-donegal-as-20c-to-hit-county/

kstand

I distinctly recall the Postman coming out last year and say that winter was not going to be harsh. People were going around saying we were in for another harsh winter but he said that he couldnt see it happening, there were no signs there that winter would be harsh and he had no idea where these people got that idea from. And he was right as it turns out.

gothwalk

gbee wrote: »

Remember two years ago the postie was in trouble with local garden centres that threatened to close down because of posties predictions.

I made all the news and radio chat shows across the country. He predicted a hard winter 2010/11 in October/November of that year and no body in the Donegal area bought winter plants and the garden centres had no Christmas Dinner that year.

Hardly seems fair to blame the man for an accurate prediction. Garden centre owners know they're in a weather-dependent business, and blaming the forecaster isn't going to help them. Diversifying into grit and snow-shovels might be of use, though.

Joe Public

gbee wrote: »

Remember two years ago the postie was in trouble with local garden centres that threatened to close down because of posties predictions.

I made all the news and radio chat shows across the country. He predicted a hard winter 2010/11 in October/November of that year and no body in the Donegal area bought winter plants and the garden centres had no Christmas Dinner that year.

Return to sender - wrong address - no such forecast.