DONEGAL’S FAMOUS WEATHERMAN PREDICTS SNOW BEFORE CHRISTMAS!

weatherfiend · 17-12-2012 5:05pm

leahyl wrote: »

Guys seriously there's very little chance of snow before Christmas now....hopefully between Christmas and New Years - who knows? As the clock strikes 12 on New Years Eve snowflakes start to fall...:) that would be magic!

Yep we were in Wexford 09/10 new year and it starting snowing about 8pm and by the time mid-night swung 'round, we had a good 2 inches. The dog couldn't believe it (her first snow) and the kids were like, well, kids in a snowstorm the following morning. It was magic - a fantastic week.................sigh!!!

Lucreto · 17-12-2012 9:22pm

leahyl wrote: »

Guys seriously there's very little chance of snow before Christmas now....hopefully between Christmas and New Years - who knows? As the clock strikes 12 on New Years Eve snowflakes start to fall...:) that would be magic!

It starting snowing in Naas at 11.50pm on the 31st 2009. Best New Years ever.

Jaffusmaximus · 17-12-2012 9:58pm

I wonder if the postman is watching the models himself F'ing and Blinding at the screen or is he observing a crow pecking the eyeball out of a dead badger and saying "Bingo"

DOCARCH · 18-12-2012 8:03am

If, and that's a very big if, the 0z GFS models were to verify, he could yet be right!

whitebriar · 18-12-2012 9:42am

I'd say the only model's he's seen are in calendars.

Anyhow,I think he latched onto the right idea,it's just his timings off a bit.

Heard on the radio this morning,there's flocks of birds from lapland have flown right onto the west coast of Ireland,further west than ever before,they usually only go as far as the east to migrate from the snow.
I'd say they know a thing or two about how far west the snow will be eventually this winter.

Scubadevils · 18-12-2012 10:13am

whitebriar wrote: »

I'd say the only model's he's seen are in calendars.

Anyhow,I think he latched onto the right idea,it's just his timings off a bit.

Heard on the radio this morning,there's flocks of birds from lapland have flown right onto the west coast of Ireland,further west than ever before,they usually only go as far as the east to migrate from the snow.
I'd say they know a thing or two about how far west the snow will be eventually this winter.

Article about this... I like the last few lines :pac:

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/here-from-lapland-for-christmas-the-birds-that-sound-like-sleigh-bells-8418171.html

Traditionally, a waxwing invasion is said to herald a bitterly cold winter. The last major migration, when 11,000 visited in the mid-1960s, was followed by one of the coldest winters on record.

DOCARCH · 18-12-2012 10:41am

I see Finner reporting light snow at 9am....I wonder has a certain postman dropped their rounds this round this morning and put a snow machine in the back of his van?

Speak Now · 18-12-2012 11:05am

DOCARCH wrote: »

I see Finner reporting light snow at 9am....I wonder has a certain postman dropped their rounds this round this morning and put a snow machine in the back of his van?

Good old Finner loves reporting snow when there's fog

Thats what happens when you go automatic!

Joe Public · 18-12-2012 11:31am

whitebriar wrote: »

I'd say the only model's he's seen are in calendars.

Anyhow,I think he latched onto the right idea,it's just his timings off a bit.

Heard on the radio this morning,there's flocks of birds from lapland have flown right onto the west coast of Ireland,further west than ever before,they usually only go as far as the east to migrate from the snow.
I'd say they know a thing or two about how far west the snow will be eventually this winter.

The primary reason the waxwings have hit the country in big numbers is to do with a very poor crop of berries, this year, in their normal habitat up close to the arctic area mainly in woods. It is very unusual they are moving to the west of Ireland in larger numbers which adds a little air of mystery. They are not used to seeing humans and can appear very tame by allowing people to get near. Most won't get to see these pretty birds as they will only visit for berries but if you put out red apples, grapes, blueberries or strawberries you might attract in a few.

Fluffycloud · 19-12-2012 6:10pm

So what about the Snow? Huh?

It was great two years when the beer was chilling out in the snow..... No fridge needed for Xmas day.

Sniff!

DOCARCH · 19-12-2012 7:32pm

Fluffycloud wrote: »

So what about the Snow? Huh?

No doubt if we don't get the snow forecast by the postman....Met Eireann will get the blame! :pac:

Joe Public · 19-12-2012 7:40pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

No doubt if we don't get the snow forecast by the postman....Met Eireann will get the blame! :pac:

No we'll blame Ken Ring, what did he say anyway?

To Alcohol · 19-12-2012 7:52pm

Joe Public wrote: »

No we'll blame Ken Ring, what did he say anyway?

Blizzard. All ares, even Cork⛄⛄

Pangea · 20-12-2012 12:51am

MET EIREANN
Christmas Eve
A frosty start in parts, with rain across southern counties slowly extending countrywide by early afternoon - risk of sleet and snow later in the day.

Sponge Bob · 20-12-2012 1:00am

Might I say that Michael Gallagher is the only great redeemer of Donegal in the eyes of the Irish public. If he fails to deliver as promised I'll blow the bridges and the powerlines in Tullaghan myself.

tippspur · 20-12-2012 1:24am

Temperatures of 10/12 degrees with rain forecast for next weekend,things are going to have to change dramatically in a couple of days for this guy to be right.

amdgilmore · 20-12-2012 2:34am

Pangea wrote: »

MET EIREANN
Christmas Eve
A frosty start in parts, with rain across southern counties slowly extending countrywide by early afternoon - risk of sleet and snow later in the day.

Hallelujah!

Although you left out the "mainly on higher ground" at the end there.

Still, I'd settle for frost and ice.

Pangea · 20-12-2012 9:57am

amdgilmore wrote: »

Hallelujah!

Although you left out the "mainly on higher ground" at the end there.

Still, I'd settle for frost and ice.

Bit of a ramp from met eireann. They took out the word snow altogether now. Seen that coming.
Yeah I'd settle for that too, at least they mentioned frost for Christmas day.

ninebeanrows · 20-12-2012 12:30pm

well at least this spell of bore weather has done some good. shown this bluffer for what he is.

Joe Public · 21-12-2012 1:20am

Weathercheck wrote: »

well at least this spell of bore weather has done some good. shown this bluffer for what he is.

That's a bit harsh and personal, nobody has a high success rate on long range forecasting. He uses traditional methods that were commonplace before science stepped in. It's not as if he is making stuff up and until someone can discover how to do long range forecasts or foretell the future then all bets are on.

kneemos · 21-12-2012 4:48am

Joe Public wrote: »

That's a bit harsh and personal, nobody has a high success rate on long range forecasting. He uses traditional methods that were commonplace before science stepped in. It's not as if he is making stuff up and until someone can discover how to do long range forecasts or foretell the future then all bets are on.

I could make guesses and be right just as often I'd imagine.

Pangea · 21-12-2012 10:45am

kneemos wrote: »

I could make guesses and be right just as often I'd imagine.

Doubt it, His track record is impressive.

Weathercheck wrote: »

well at least this spell of bore weather has done some good. shown this bluffer for what he is.

Isn't this bore weather exactly what you 'proper' forecasters weren't predicting a week or two back aswell.

talkabout · 21-12-2012 12:01pm

Pangea wrote: »

Doubt it, His track record is impressive.

To be honest its average at best, taking a punt and saying it will snow before Xmas is not much of a prediction. I'll state that it will snow next years in Donegal before Xmas. I reckon i have a 75/25% chance of being right. I'm not knocking the guy but i think he is a novelty and the media make the most of this and people only remember the bits of his forecast that he gets right.

Pangea · 21-12-2012 12:24pm

talkabout wrote: »

To be honest its average at best, taking a punt and saying it will snow before Xmas is not much of a prediction. I'll state that it will snow next years in Donegal before Xmas. I reckon i have a 75/25% chance of being right. I'm not knocking the guy but i think he is a novelty and the media make the most of this and people only remember the bits of his forecast that he gets right.

You don't remember it very well yourself if you are saying his track record is average at best, only one I can remember that he got it wrong was last St. Patricks Day he was calling for snow. Bar that growing up I was impressed by his forecasts even before he became a hit with the Dublin Media.
Your right about people only remembering bits of his forecast infact people remember some forecasts he never made i.e Last winter everyone saying he called for a Whiteout Winter while he said it would be mild! (Which by your odds was only 25% likely)
People only remember his snowy predictions and then try to tarnish with him saying that is all he forecasts.
Anyway dont know why everyone gets so serious, its an old tradition, he used to be in a small column once in a while on the Donegal Democrat, now that he is on medias eyes everyone saying he is trying to bluff everyone. Maybe it is all by chance but he has a good record and its not doing anyone any harm.

Nabber · 21-12-2012 12:34pm

kneemos wrote: »

I could make guesses and be right just as often I'd imagine.

There is a difference between a guess and a prediction.
A guess is just a guess, picking an outcome without reason.

He makes a prediction based on factors he sees around him in nature. Like his method or not, still doesn't make it a guess.

If we had blizzard conditions he would be king among men in here.

Some of you guys take snow/cold far to seriously. Last year the forum went tits up because people were not happy with the lack of snow. Some of the informed contributors to the weather forum have closed their accounts.

Take it easy on the post man, it's weather. Don't make it personal.

talkabout · 21-12-2012 12:38pm

Pangea wrote: »

You don't remember it very well yourself if you are saying his track record is average at best, only one I can remember that he got it wrong was last St. Patricks Day he was calling for snow. Bar that growing up I was impressed by his forecasts even before he became a hit with the Dublin Media.
Your right about people only remembering bits of his forecast infact people remember some forecasts he never made i.e Last winter everyone saying he called for a Whiteout Winter while he said it would be mild! (Which by your odds was only 25% likely)
People only remember his snowy predictions and then try to tarnish with him saying that is all he forecasts.
Anyway dont know why everyone gets so serious, its an old tradition, he used to be in a small column once in a while on the Donegal Democrat, now that he is on medias eyes everyone saying he is trying to bluff everyone. Maybe it is all by chance but he has a good record and its not doing anyone any harm.

Fair enough, all i'm saying is if you predict snow before Xmas you have a decent chance of somewhere having snow. Most Irish winters are mild and he did predict this last year. The 75/25% i quote is in relation to getting snow, not harsh or mild winters. You can have snow at some point in a mild winter. In actually fact, i would say if you predict a mild winter you will get it right more often than wrong.

Pangea · 21-12-2012 12:43pm

talkabout wrote: »

Fair enough, all i'm saying is if you predict snow before Xmas you have a decent chance of somewhere having snow..

There's also a decent chance of no snow, but that's the nature of long range weather forecasting.
Then again he's more into the business of forecasting heavy snow and cold spells, not wee coverings here and there.
Regardless of his past predictions looks like his forecast of plenty of snow before this Christmas was wrong.

Joe Public · 21-12-2012 4:53pm

The main thing about long range forecasting is that you have to back it up with something like planets, nature, NAO+, NAO- or whatever you are in to. If you don't then it's just pure guessing and nobody is interested, please keep weather forecasting interesting and have a good story behind a long ranger.