STORM POTENTIAL 31st Oct - 3rd Nov.

ninebeanrows

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Urgent to mods -- update thread title my suggestion

Level 2 ... Severe wind gusts likely in north on Thursday, may repeat Saturday

Urgent to readers ... model consensus now shows potential for very strong wind gusts in Donegal, Mayo and other parts of Connacht, Ulster on Thursday, arriving mid-day and translating east and southeast by evening.

May not be as severe in west Munster as a track from Donegal Bay to Dublin can be inferred from guidance.

Wind gusts to 120 km/hr (75 mph) appear possible, with wind-driven hail showers, snow on hills, almost a blizzard condition possible at higher elevations of northwest.

Saturday could be a total reload with Friday in between a more moderate strong wind continuation once the Thursday night gusts settle down.

Over to forecast thread for update now.

I just don't see anything near 75mph?

As the models appear at the moment, i could see perhaps a gust to 55kt at a maximum in some exposed areas of the north and northwest.

Will be breezy countrywide though, with widespread gusts from 30-40kt.

<This is not to say the models will change in the coming hours>

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

I just don't see anything near 75mph?

As the models appear at the moment, i could see perhaps a gust to 55kt at a maximum in some exposed areas of the north and northwest.

Will be breezy countrywide though, with widespread gusts from 30-40kt.

<This is not to say the models will change in the coming hours>

I'm a little baffled meself!

maquiladora

Personally, I don't see the potential for anything stronger than maybe 80 kph gusts for the exposed NW coasts on the models, a place well used to windy Autumn days.

torrential1

Met eireann certainly going for a cold blustery spell but no mention of any strong winds. I no expert but looking at charts etc I don't see any potential for more than gale gusts in the heavier showers.

Harps

Was thinking the same, NAE shows no more than 45-50 kts on the NW coast Thursday evening/night, isolated gusts a bit higher maybe. Norwegian HIRLAM develops the system earlier and further south but wind isn't as strong

Deep Easterly

Windfinder has a fairly strong band of westerlies developing over Ulster very late Thursday/early Friday which are likely to be very gusty in any showers but debatable as to whether it is worthy of a 'Level 2'. Will be an interesting one to watch unfold.




From: http://www.windfinder.com/forecasts/superforecast_ireland_animation.htm

Su Campu

12Z GFS 950 hPa heights (dm) and winds.



Norwegian hirlam, 06Z Friday

pistolpetes11

Have it at Level 1 seems the general consensus is there wont be anything too bad , MT is prob in bed Im sure he will also update in the morning.

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Have it at Level 1 seems the general consensus is there wont be anything too bad , MT is prob in bed Im sure he will also update in the morning.

At 3:35 pm??!!!!:D

pistolpetes11

Su Campu wrote: »

At 3:35 pm??!!!!:D

Spends so much time here , has to get some shut eye when the rest of us are asleep

speaking of which ..............

M.T. Cranium

I'm comfortable with the level one designation, have a feeling this will intensify on later charts but also reading some meso-scale potential into the situation.

Strongest winds would be close to midnight (west) to 0600 (east) or in about 24 hours from now, so time to adjust the level as required. I'm not here as much as people may think, if you're going by my username being listed at bottom of page, I keep windows open all day then click back on when required, so my actual time here is much less than that would imply. Also I have been known to fall asleep at all times of day, or at least, to be in bed.

dacogawa

I don't know, the charts say one thing but when M.T. seems that confident I think it's time to tie some stuff down...

whataboutnow

Hi guys. Level 1/2/3etc. What is the criteria for things to fall in to each category regarding wind so I can have a better understanding of what it means whenever a level 1 or etc is issued. I'm aware that it is more serious as you go up the levels

whataboutnow

Light sleet recorded at finner co.donegal http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Also I have been known to fall asleep at all times of day, or at least, to be in bed.

MT's new anthem

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fs7OvROtZFY

Su Campu

Capo Carbonara (116 m) in southeastern Sardinia reported sustained winds of 55 knots, with a gust to 67 knots, at 2255 tonight. Several other reports above 40 knots from land and sea stations around the Med.

METAR LIEC 312255Z 25055G67KT 9999 SCT017 19/14 Q0992 RMK SCT QUK / QUL / VIS MAR 15 KM VIS MIN 9999=

Oscar Bravo

Well lets hear what Met Eireann have to say as we head over to the general and Sea Area forecast on RTE Radio 1/ Sky 0160....Its five to Midnight

Rougies

Deep Easterly wrote: »

MT's new anthem

That's the most confusing and scariest thing I've seen all night.
Oscar Bravo ... you're real? It was was five to midnight right?!

gbee

Woke up to white cars, get up, get camera, get snap, frost almost gone already,

Tactical

Interested to see M.T's forecast this morning. The update last night is considerably different to the most recent Met Eireann forecast. I wonder areMet Eireann being cautious with an upgrading to follow or will we see a downgrade this morning from M.T?

From Met Eireann this morning:-

National Forecast



01 November 2012 05:14

Today
Today will be a cold day with early frost, mist and fog and the risk of icy patches.
Eastern parts will have a dry morning but showers already in the West, will become widespread during the day, some of them heavy and of hail, with the risk of thunder.
There'll be good sunny spells also but highest temperatures will just reach 6 to 8 Celsius. Westerly winds, initially light will increase strong and blustery.

Tonight

Tonight will be windy with clear spells and further showers, some heavy and prolonged in the North and Northwest. Lowest temperatures 2 to 4 degrees with frost in sheltered areas.

Tactical

Interested to see that M.T. Has left his forecast pretty much unchanged from his earlier advisory. Wonder what time Met Eireann will upgrade. Anyhow, looking forward to something other than bland damp weather

M.T. Cranium

MTC still comfortable with the level one alert at this point, but note that it only applies to northern half of country generally speaking north of a line from central Clare to Dublin-Wicklow border, and therefore no level one advisory implied for southern half. Could be locally level 2 in isolated parts of northwest but that's the region most accustomed to strong winds. I am somewhat concerned about a meso-scale event developing but the guidance has for now halted an earlier trend to stronger winds and is holding steady for tonight. Timing appears similar to previous post, peak gusts around midnight in northwest and towards morning in east. There should be a less windy interval later Friday but another round of strong winds on Saturday.

Will assess for an update around 5-7 p.m. but this thread will no doubt pick up on any changes from 06z run before I restart the weather machine here.

Perhaps the potential for hail is the most urgent risk especially for those driving longer distances today and tonight. Roads could become quite slippery as the hail falls then partially melts to leave icy sections later on. Also quite a chill with the strong winds and rather low temperatures overnight.

Tactical

Just slightly South of central Clare.

Looking forward to comparing conditions with Wolfe Ire later

Many thanks for the post and as always a detailed and interesting forecast

Deep Easterly

Oslo Hirlam 00z run has a possible mesoscale feature developing off the Donegal coast tomorrow morning. Dosen't look especially noteworthy and may be dropped in later runs but worth keeping an eye on just for the time being.



from yr.no

Elmer Blooker

I'm very surprised those very heavy showers off the west coast aren't thundery with cold Arctic air over the still warm sea?
Look at the English Channel earlier.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Deep Easterly

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'm very surprised those very heavy showers off the west coast aren't thundery with cold Arctic air over the still warm sea?
Look at the English Channel earlier.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

One of those showers moving in over here now and can assure you that it is not in least bit heavy. Typical sloppy polar shower.

Current radar returns looks sorta weird, like a giant claw mark or something.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Current radar returns looks sorta weird, like a giant claw mark or something.

A day late :pac:

Elmer Blooker

the heavy stuff is out over the sea at the moment, the showers should get a lot heavier later in your parts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Tactical

Frequency of the wintry showers has picked up in West Limerick and the wind has increased also since morning

Large amounts of leaves coming off the trees has considerably increased from earlier this morning also.

Wolfe_IRE

A 72kph gust was recorded at Valentia at 1pm. Winds will pick up in the west and north this evening

Wolfe_IRE

MET EIREANN

West to Northwest gales this afternoon and evening on coasts from Carnsore Pt to Mizen Head to Slyne Head and West to northwest gales developing this evening and tonight on coasts from Slyne Head to Malin Head to Howth Head and on the north Irish Sea
Issued at 13:00 on 1-Nov-2012

M.T. Cranium

06z GFS maintains "borderline" look to overnight wind event but intensifies Saturday to almost a country-wide level one isolated two sort of a thing, will wait to see 12z model consensus before advance-alerting on that (was already covered in forecast).

A few clues exist about tonight's potential, for example the K5 buoy, often not that responsive to northwest winds for whatever reason in my experience (I have learned to adjust it upwards on them) has shown a fairly long run of 30-33 knot winds and has built 7m waves, which extend to 5m waves at the other UK buoy in outer Donegal Bay. Not a complete proof but if forced this sector could get gusty. Satellite imagery shows back edge of showers as the most likely early indicator of trough line developing. More vigorous convection appears to be moving towards shore in Mayo at present to replace what DE commented on as weak clusters already inland (lots of them too).

Saturday looks more powerful now on this model run. We would get blown away with that pattern around where I am, but that's partly due to topographic forcing that doesn't exist in Ireland. Whenever there's a tight W gradient here, the wind rushes in from WNW between the high coastal mountains and the peaks on Vancouver Island, that squeeze play sends a locally constrained wind max over parts of the city while others in the northeast part of the city are sheltered and don't see much. In a strong WSW flow, the city of Victoria will get hit from channelling of winds through the Juan de Fuca strait while Vancouver will often have much lower wind speeds. Backing to SW and these winds then howl out of Puget Sound and hit the southeast quadrant of the Vancouver region missing downtown to about my location in what's called the "Olympic shadow" which also applies to rainfall.

Any similar local effects in Ireland that people know about? From wind damage reports I became aware of some similar eddy effects around the Kerry peaks, and we've discussed the Dublin regional effects extensively. The terrain in Connacht looks a bit too "bumpy" to do a lot of guiding of wind flows, but I expect there would be marked contrasts on various sides of the higher portions in different wind directions. Can see on google earth some ideal wind-notch possibilities in Donegal and Derry.

rhonin

The wind has picked up here, nothing major but certainly increased in the last two hours. The showers have intensified as well.

Wolfe_IRE

An 85kph gust was reported at Sherkin Island in West Cork at 3pm.

Pangea

No sign of any wind here yet anyway.

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

No sign of any wind here yet anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3WwcsjWPIQ

(inspired by Iancar29!)

cameramonkey

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

06z GFS maintains "borderline" look to overnight wind event but intensifies Saturday to almost a country-wide level one isolated two sort of a thing, will wait to see 12z model consensus before advance-alerting on that (was already covered in forecast).

A few clues exist about tonight's potential, for example the K5 buoy, often not that responsive to northwest winds for whatever reason in my experience (I have learned to adjust it upwards on them) has shown a fairly long run of 30-33 knot winds and has built 7m waves, which extend to 5m waves at the other UK buoy in outer Donegal Bay. Not a complete proof but if forced this sector could get gusty. Satellite imagery shows back edge of showers as the most likely early indicator of trough line developing. More vigorous convection appears to be moving towards shore in Mayo at present to replace what DE commented on as weak clusters already inland (lots of them too).

Saturday looks more powerful now on this model run. We would get blown away with that pattern around where I am, but that's partly due to topographic forcing that doesn't exist in Ireland. Whenever there's a tight W gradient here, the wind rushes in from WNW between the high coastal mountains and the peaks on Vancouver Island, that squeeze play sends a locally constrained wind max over parts of the city while others in the northeast part of the city are sheltered and don't see much. In a strong WSW flow, the city of Victoria will get hit from channelling of winds through the Juan de Fuca strait while Vancouver will often have much lower wind speeds. Backing to SW and these winds then howl out of Puget Sound and hit the southeast quadrant of the Vancouver region missing downtown to about my location in what's called the "Olympic shadow" which also applies to rainfall.

Any similar local effects in Ireland that people know about? From wind damage reports I became aware of some similar eddy effects around the Kerry peaks, and we've discussed the Dublin regional effects extensively. The terrain in Connacht looks a bit too "bumpy" to do a lot of guiding of wind flows, but I expect there would be marked contrasts on various sides of the higher portions in different wind directions. Can see on google earth some ideal wind-notch possibilities in Donegal and Derry.

http://maps.osi.ie/publicviewer/#V1,599997,749998,0,1

some information on wind from the OSI.

Pangea

cameramonkey wrote: »

http://maps.osi.ie/publicviewer/#V1,599997,749998,0,1

some information on wind from the OSI.

I seen that map before, but how does it work? I don't understand how to read it with regards to wind.

snaps

Extremely heavy showers and persistent rain here this afternoon. Some wintery stuff mixed in at one point too. Not a breath of wind at all.

cameramonkey

Pangea wrote: »

I seen that map before, but how does it work? I don't understand how to read it with regards to wind.

find it had to decipher myself, all I can work out is that the red bits seem to be the areas of high wind.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Oslo Hirlam 00z run has a possible mesoscale feature developing off the Donegal coast tomorrow morning. Dosen't look especially noteworthy and may be dropped in later runs but worth keeping an eye on just for the time being.

12z run still has this feature but further north and east for same time period.



From yr.no

Pangea

cameramonkey wrote: »

find it had to decipher myself, all I can work out is that the red bits seem to be the areas of high wind.

The red bits are mountains, so doubt thats it.
There are some numbers dotted around the place though.

Coles

Pangea wrote: »

The red bits are mountains, so doubt thats it.
There are some numbers dotted around the place though.

Select 'Legend' in the 'Menu' box on the right hand side. The different colours show the average wind speed (m/s).
The red numbers are just part of the map background (kms between towns).

Oscar Bravo

A 2256 update from Met Eireann - It will be a very wet and windy start to Friday in parts of Ulster, north Connacht and north Leinster as heavy thundery downpours spread eastwards. There will be the risk of spot flooding as well as hail and sleet on higher ground. These heavy falls of rain will clear the east coast during the afternoon. Elsewhere it will be brighter, with sunny spells and scattered showers. A cool day with highs of 6 to 10 degrees in moderate to fresh west to northwest winds.

Outlook

It will be windy on Saturday night with rain along the west coast. The rain will be heavy and may produce some sleet on higher ground. The rain will spread further inland overnight. Lowest temperatures of 1 to 4 degrees, with the cooler weather on the east coast. Winds will be mainly moderate southerly overland but will be fresh to strong along coasts.
Sunday will be a cool day with widespread outbreaks of rain. It will be quite windy at times and temperatures will only climb to between 6 and 10 degrees. The rain will continue for a while on Sunday night, but it will gradually clear from the north towards dawn. Lows of 2 to 4 degrees.
Monday will be a cold and windy day with moderate to fresh northerly winds. There will be some heavy rain at times along the east coast, while elsewhere it will be drier with some bright spells. Highs on Monday of 7 to 10 degrees. It will become cold night under clearing skies and temperatures will drop to between -1 and +2 degrees, with a widespread frost. Tuesday will be a drier day with some sunny spells and highs of 8 to 11 degrees. However a band of rain will spread nationwide through Wednesday.

Oscar Bravo

From Met Eireann-Westerly winds will reach gale force and occasionally strong gale force on coasts from Erris Head to Malin Head to Howth Head and on the Irish Sea north of Anglesey overnight and through Friday morning and afternoon.
Issued at 23:00 on 1-Nov-2012

snaps

seems nothing has materialized from this. barely any wind of note, heavy showers yes, but no wind at all.

Tactical

snaps wrote: »

seems nothing has materialized from this. barely any wind of note, heavy showers yes, but no wind at all.

Yes, rather disappointing.

John mac

snaps wrote: »

seems nothing has materialized from this. barely any wind of note, heavy showers yes, but no wind at all.

thought the windows had blown in last night !!! about 1:30 and again at 5 this am. really strong winds with hail showers, was pretty windy all morning (bellmullet) wind died down at about 13:00 .

Wolfe_IRE

80kmph gust at Roches Point Cork at 7pm

Storm 10

Very windy in Galway now and very strong gusts in rain and hail showers