*Everything HPAT and Medicine 2014*

itsmawadii

Shanrahan wrote: »

You wrong...

Cheers, thanks for that. Great explanation. I shall sleep in peace for the next 50 days.

Shanrahan

itsmawadii wrote: »

Like I want what you're saying to be true so bad. And when I was thinking about it too, it does make sense logically. A drop in 10-12 HPAT points across the board must mean a 10-12 point drop in entry points, right?

But here's what I'm also thinking:

Every year the overall CAO entry points have gone up for med.
This can be attributed to the HPAT: every year, people are getting higher and higher HPAT scores. (Several years ago 175 was a very good score. Recently people needed around 190.)

People keep saying it's all about the HPAT percentiles, but the rising LC points also drive up overall entry points. Every year, because the overall CAO entry points have risen, the need to achieve 600 points or greater has risen. So more and more people are aiming for and achieving 600+ LC points. This trend is unlikely to change. More people will be getting nearer 600 LC points this year than the previous year, as has happened every year.

Therefore, although the HPAT scores have dropped 10-12 points, and I'm certain there will be an overall drop in entry points for medicine, will it really be a drop of 10-12 CAO points?

I've given myself a pain in my head from thinking and overthinking this. Can someone please just tell me I'm wrong? Cause if I'm wrong, why shouldn't the entry points come down by 10 points from last year?? I don't know how I'll last till August. I'll be completely tapped by the time the offers come out.

People doing medicine have always have always been getting near 600 points in their leaving. And most people doing medicine try to get perfect leaving certs. This is surely the case every year so really I think it's all about hpat. Plus the reduced competition from 3000 applicants to 2500 would mean even further decrease in neccesary points really. Plus an increase in l.c points would only really make the cao requirements go up by like 1 point due to every 5 being worth 1.

sillydog10

Shanrahan wrote: »

You wrong...

Mind adding anything to that? There's no way it won't drop 10+, the points from last year can't be compared to this year... The only comparison is the percentiles.

itsmawadii

Shanrahan wrote: »

You wrong...

Like you seem 100% sure the points will drop by 10. Galway was 739 last year. You forecast that to decrease to 729 this year. If 729 is (what you think) to be the cut off point for entry to medicine in Ireland this year, why are there people all over boards with 730+ points ****ting a brick over this? In what way are they wrong in thinking the points won't decrease by 10 or more?

sillydog10

itsmawadii wrote: »

Like you seem 100% sure the points will drop by 10. Galway was 739 last year. You forecast that to decrease to 729 this year. If 729 is (what you think) to be the cut off point for entry to medicine in Ireland this year, why are there people all over boards with 730+ points ****ting a brick over this? In what way are they wrong in thinking the points won't decrease by 10 or more?

They're worried because 730 is much lower compared to previous years, where the same percentiles (I've been saying that word a lot recently) translated to much higher HPAT points

randylonghorn

itsmawadii wrote: »

So more and more people are aiming for and achieving 600+ LC points. This trend is unlikely to change. More people will be getting nearer 600 LC points this year than the previous year, as has happened every year.

Can I ask what your evidence for that is though?

People applying for medicine have always tried to maximise CAO points from LC, even more so before the HPAT was introduced (which is actually not that long ago).

One factor from LC points which did affect things was the introduction of the HL Maths bonus points, but that will have no impact this year.

I wouldn't be so foolish as to attempt to forecast points, but there's a good argument that we will see them fall this year.

Exactly how much? THAT uncertainty is what has people defecating construction modules!

Shanrahan

itsmawadii wrote: »

Like you seem 100% sure the points will drop by 10. Galway was 739 last year. You forecast that to decrease to 729 this year. If 729 is (what you think) to be the cut off point for entry to medicine in Ireland this year, why are there people all over boards with 730+ points ****ting a brick over this? In what way are they wrong in thinking the points won't decrease by 10 or more?

Roughly that yeah. I've already explained this twice earlier in the discussion. There are 500 places roughly. 2500 people applied. 80+ percentile is top 500. 80percentile this year is 170 compared to 180 something last year. Therefore reduction of around 10. If not more because there are less applicants than last year. Competition that would prevent the points going down by this much isn't gonna come out of nowhere. Leaving cert points won't affect it much because medicine doers always have high leaving cert points.

Now for The reason for people ****ting bricks I would think is similar the smart kid in the class who says they fail tests when everyone knows they got an A and is just annoying. Also pessimistic people who don't think such a point decrease is possible. But logically it is almost certain. Then you have nervous people. And to think about it the confident people aren't gonna be on boards.ie cos they don't care really. It's mostly nervous people who need reassurance.

So you should trust me because I'm assuming unless you did an unbelievable hpat 90+ that you need me to be right about this, as do I

CianFed

Its because people dont seem to realise that medicine can drop in points too...just cause its medicine it still goes down. It will almost invariably drop to 729 perhaps a couple of points higher. The thing is leaving cert results stay very static every year, therefore the only influence on medicine is gonna be demand (the amount of applicants) and HPAT points. And with 500 less applicants and a drop of about 11 points per 10% percentile in HPAT the points simply have to drop!

EDIT: Ahh just realised everything i just said was basically covered half minute before i posted! So yeah basically points are going down, time to stop thinking about it till August!

sillydog10

Question is how much will they drop?

itsmawadii

Okay thanks lads. I do completely believe what ye are saying. An approximate 10 point drop is only logical. I'm just trying to understand why people on the 90th percentile are stressing. I just thought they must have a secret valid reason for believing the points won't drop by around 10. They don't though, do they? Then again, we could all be eating our words come August :L

sillydog10

itsmawadii wrote: »

Okay thanks lads. I do completely believe what ye are saying. An approximate 10 point drop is only logical. I'm just trying to understand why people on the 90th percentile are stressing. I just thought they must have a secret valid reason for believing the points won't drop by around 10. They don't though, do they? Then again, we could all be eating our words come August :L

Nah, realistically if people had 90th getting into UCC and NUIG is (pretty much) a definite with 550+, as was the case for the last few years

EoghanIRL

Has anyone considered that they don't have to fill the course ? I mean even if the points for medicine stayed the same , a lot of people would still get in . Not every course gets filled every year . If there is one year where there is a couple of less med student it would not be the end of the world for the universities.

Everyone seems to be resigned that points have to drop .

sillydog10

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Has anyone considered that they don't have to fill the course ? I mean even if the points for medicine stayed the same , a lot of people would still get in . Not every course gets filled every year . If there is one year where there is a couple of less med student it would not be the end of the world for the universities.

Everyone seems to be resigned that points have to drop .

They have to, because if they didn't, to get trinity with a 560 you'd nearly need 100th percentile which simply won't happen because there's no way they'd fill all of the med courses with that. Med is still part of the CAO (aka the points are dictated by the demand), I doubt they'd restrict the seats because the hpat points are down.

CiaraMT

Everybody's discussing the hpat points dropping this year, but why exactly have they went down? Is it because questions were taken out or what?

Ka_yl_ei_gh

CiaraMT wrote: »

Everybody's discussing the hpat points dropping this year, but why exactly have they went down? Is it because questions were taken out or what?

'Cause section 3 is now worth less than section 1 & 2, whereas before the three were equal.

sunnydee

Shanrahan wrote: »

Roughly that yeah. I've already explained this twice earlier in the discussion. There are 500 places roughly. 2500 people applied. 80+ percentile is top 500. 80percentile this year is 170 compared to 180 something last year. Therefore reduction of around 10. If not more because there are less applicants than last year. Competition that would prevent the points going down by this much isn't gonna come out of nowhere. Leaving cert points won't affect it much because medicine doers always have high leaving cert points.

So you should trust me because I'm assuming unless you did an unbelievable hpat 90+ that you need me to be right about this, as do I

Where did you hear that 2500 people applied? Cause I just had a look at the Analysis of CAO First Preference Applications 2014. First pref for med last year was 3480 students. This year it's 3276.

highonlife

Right, from reading through the posts I think I understand correctly, but can someone please confirm:

I'm on the 90th percentile with 179. I've a leaving cert of 565, giving me a total of 732.

Every year without exception, you were guaranteed UCC or NUIG with the 90th percentile and 550+ points. For example, last year the 90th percentile was 194. 194+570 gives 748, getting a place in UCC for sure.

I know the percentiles are all down and messing with peoples heads, but am I borderline for UCC with 732, do I have no chance, or could I nearly guarantee it?

I'd appreciate any thoughts, if not for my sake, then for my mothers, who is up the walls with nerves. Can't deal.

Viola112

highonlife wrote: »

Right, from reading through the posts I think I understand correctly, but can someone please confirm:

I'm on the 90th percentile with 179. I've a leaving cert of 565, giving me a total of 732.

Every year without exception, you were guaranteed UCC or NUIG with the 90th percentile and 550+ points. For example, last year the 90th percentile was 194. 194+570 gives 748, getting a place in UCC for sure.

I know the percentiles are all down and messing with peoples heads, but am I borderline for UCC with 732, do I have no chance, or could I nearly guarantee it?

I'd appreciate any thoughts, if not for my sake, then for my mothers, who is up the walls with nerves. Can't deal.

I'm pretty much in the same boat as you points wise. I'm on 731 but in the 82nd percentile. It's nearly inevitable that points will go down by at least 10 points or more which would give you a few points more than ucc or Nuig and you're in the top 10% of hpat candidates so you're in a really good place!

FunTimess

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Has anyone considered that they don't have to fill the course ? I mean even if the points for medicine stayed the same , a lot of people would still get in . Not every course gets filled every year . If there is one year where there is a couple of less med student it would not be the end of the world for the universities.

Everyone seems to be resigned that points have to drop .

I really can't see why the universities wouldn't want to fill up the courses. After all, universities are all businesses with students being their customers.

The more students = more customers = more money which is what they want.

I'm sure they would prefer to maximise the numbers of students each course can take, rather than minimise, just because overall results are lower.

highonlife

I know every year, anyone with 550 points and the 90th percentile has gotten in. But is there any reason that won't be the case this year?

randylonghorn

itsmawadii wrote: »

OI'm just trying to understand why people on the 90th percentile are stressing. I just thought they must have a secret valid reason for believing the points won't drop by around 10. They don't though, do they?

No, people always stress, esp. medabees. Just like you're doing by imagining that everyone knows something you don't!

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Has anyone considered that they don't have to fill the course?

They don't have to, but it's not in their best interests to avoid doing so.

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Not every course gets filled every year.

Usually because demand for a course drops. Is that a likely one in med? :v

Some courses are more expensive than others to run; med courses are horrendously expensive to run. Unless there are exceptional circumstances, they will want to fill them.

otpmb

sunnydee wrote: »

Where did you hear that 2500 people applied? Cause I just had a look at the Analysis of CAO First Preference Applications 2014. First pref for med last year was 3480 students. This year it's 3276.

There's an article in the Irish Times, I don't have a clue how to put a link in for it but, the article is titled "Concerns about HPat medical school entrance exam need to be urgently addressed", the article is in the Education section too.The article says this year 2500 people applied for med a drop of 500 from 2012. I also thought, there was an article in the Irish Medical Times but, I can't seem to find that.

I've just found the pdf, with the analysis of first preference applications for 2014 though, and think it is much more reliable. There has been a drop of 500 people applying from 2012 to 2014 though.

However, those numbers are just since February 1st there could be slight changes in the next few days, probably won't make a difference.

EoghanIRL

Newish article which may be of interest :

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/education/medicine-test-scores-fall-after-reforms-to-make-it-fair-30382008.html

sillydog10

otpmb wrote: »

However, those numbers are just since February 1st there could be slight changes in the next few days, probably won't make a difference.

Is there any numbers from previous years the numbers of people that have med no1 after the change of mind deadline? If the drop in people is anything to go on, it could mean less people would still keep it on since the amount of people getting 80+ is a less than previous years

Username6212

What percentile and leaving cert points minimum for trinity or rcsi?

Eurovisionmad

Lads slightly unhelpful advice here but the best thing you could do is try to forget about it and enjoy your summer, no matter how much you discuss it getting into med doesn't become any more or less likely. 80th percentile is the baseline to have a good chance to get in, above that with 550+ you're likely to get in. Below that it becomes less and less likely and you'll need more LC points but all manner of combinations are possible, its impossible to know what the points will be. Just try and forget about it, you'll drive yourself mad otherwise!

Queeferz

sunnydee wrote: »

Where did you hear that 2500 people applied? Cause I just had a look at the Analysis of CAO First Preference Applications 2014. First pref for med last year was 3480 students. This year it's 3276.

2500 sat the hpat, 3276 applied

Iamtheduchess

Queeferz wrote: »

2500 sat the hpat, 3276 applied

Does the 3276 include international applications?

otpmb

Queeferz wrote: »

2500 sat the hpat, 3276 applied

Where is this information available?

sunnydee

otpmb wrote: »

Where is this information available?

I can't post a link, but literally type "cao first preferences 2014" into google, and it's the 5th search link that comes up. It's a PDF file! The 3276 figure can be seen on page 5 of it

As for the 2500 people that sat the HPAT, I have no idea where that came from. It was probably seen in a recent newspaper article. So tbh, I don't know how accurate that is. Do ACER even release info like that?

Also if med was the first preference for 3276 people, more than 2500 would have sat the HPAT. I'd say at least 3000 people.

But I'm not 100% sure if the 3276 people who had med as their first preference were all undergraduates! That could include postgraduates maybe, or international students? Not sure!!