November 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 27-10-2012 10:27am #1

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990) -- figures thanks to Deep Easterly.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. Thanks to Waterways for suggestion, there's a fly fishing festival in Galway on the weekend of 10th-11th. Will go with nearby (I say so anyway) Athenry weather station for verification, what will be mid-day (1200h or 12z) temperature rounded off, each of the two days. Sample answer, which I know is too high but I don't want to plant a suggestion, 24, 22. Scores will be based on minimum aggregate error (no squares or multiples just the raw differences).

TEMPLATE ...

IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... T1,T2

]Normal deadlines apply -- end of Thursday 1st for on time entries, slight penalty on Friday 2nd, more severe penalty on Saturday 3rd, and effectively closed 0300h 4th.

Also for your information, I am quite willing to continue on with forecast contest in 2013 but will open a thread later in November to discuss any changes desired including a new host, don't mind either way ... will be suggesting minor changes for late scoring, just percentages taken off for each day, that way, no such thing as too late but can't score any points by about 5th so nobody loses their place in contest but not even a faint hope of advantage for waiting. This is sort of what I have been doing in marginal cases anyway, our leading contestants have been helpful enough to post on time regularly so it has always applied to cases of pack-runners (of which I am one also).

Another change I will bring forward (a new host might not wish to take this on) is to keep track of seasonal leaders and to declare the contest annual period Dec 2012 to Nov 2013 to blend with that. This year will end as expected with Dec 2012, so it will do double duty. But we may have an informal special award if the race is tight for the 2013 annual winner. Seasons will of course be the three months normally used in weather forums.

Please wait for the discussion thread to open to comment on this, and reserve this thread for your November forecasts.