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November 2012 Boards forecast contest

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24

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    #32
    jambofc
    Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    6.9 .... 14.9 .... -3.5 .... 110 .... 110 .... 8,8


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    #33
    okla
    Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭okla


    6.8....13.4....-3.2....95....110....7.4.9.5


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    #34
    NeVeR
    Registered Users Posts: 5,330 ✭✭✭NeVeR


    7.0 ... 13.7 ... -3.1 ... 82% ... 105.. 10,9

    I did cheat tho.. I've a time machine :)


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    #35
    jd
    Registered Users Posts: 5,701 ✭✭✭jd


    6.8....14.5...-5.8....92....108....9,8


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    #36
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    5.9 .... 13.1 .... -6.8 .... 85 .... 124 .... 11,12


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    #37
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    5.8 .... 15.8 .... -4.5 .... 88 .... 115 .... 7,7


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    #38
    Lumi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    6.5 .... 13.8 .... -5.0 .... 93 .... 100 .... 8,9


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    #39
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    6.5 .... 15.1 .... -4.9 .... 88 .... 100 .... 12.0,8.0


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    #40
    traecy1
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭traecy1


    6.6....15.5....-4.2....125....95....10.5, 11.6


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    #41
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 376 ✭✭waterways


    6.3 .... 14.1 .... -7.5 .... 90 .... 90 .... 9,7


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    #42
    rameire
    Registered Users Posts: 4,164 ✭✭✭rameire


    6.8 .... 13.0 .... -5.8 .... 80 .... 101 .... 9,9

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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    #43
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    6.1 ... 14.4 ... -4.8 ... 90 ... 107 ... 10,9


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    #44
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    5.7....13.0....-7.5.....75.....145.....9.0..11.0


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    #45
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    7.0.... 14.3.... -3.9.... 110.... 105.... 8,8


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for those on-time entries. I will wait for a day or two to see if we get a few latecomers, then close off the contest on Saturday night. Welcome to anyone who is new to the contest. You're just in time to get in some practice because a new cycle begins soon, maybe in December for seasonal contests.

    There will be a separate "third annual" winter forecast contest, I will post it when this one closes. Look for it around Sunday but no rush, the deadline will be end of November.

    Any editing from now to deadline will change your entry time so calculate carefully if you're looking to score points.


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    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of entries for November forecast contest


    Forecaster ................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max 10,11
    ______________________________________________________________


    Strasser ................... 7.2 .... 13.5 ... -5.3 ... 100 ... 100 ...... 8,12
    200motels ................. 7.1 .... 14.1 ... -3.6 ... 123 ... 080 ...... 8, 9
    cherryghost .............. 7.1 .... 13.9 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 085 .... 11,12
    talkabout .................. 7.0 .... 14.8 ... -4.2 ... 110 ... 090 ...... 9,10
    Bsal ......................... 7.0 .... 13.9 ... -5.2 ... 107 ... 098 ...... 8, 8
    NeVeR ...................... 7.0 .... 13.7 ... -3.1 ... 082 ... 105 .... 10, 9
    Tae laidir .................. 7.0 .... 14.3 ... -3.9 ... 110 ... 105 ...... 8, 8
    SeaFields .................. 7.0 .... 15.0 ... -5.5 ... 080 ... 100 ...... 4, 8
    nilhg ........................ 7.0 .... 15.5 ... -5.5 ... 105 ... 095 .... 12,14
    Hammer Archer .......... 6.9 .... 15.1 ... -5.2 ... 089 ... 090 ...... 9,11
    delw ........................ 6.9 .... 13.7 ... -3.8 ... 104 ... 096 .... 13,10
    jambofc .................... 6.9 .... 14.9 ... -3.5 ... 110 ... 110 ...... 8, 8
    NIALL D .................... 6.9 .... 14.8 ... -5.3 ... 089 ... 100 ...... 9,10
    H2UMrsRobinson ......... 6.9 .... 15.2 ... -3.9 ... 096 ... 076 .... 12,13
    Joe Public ................. 6.9 .... 13.9 ... -4.9 ... 089 ... 109 ...... 9, 9
    DOCARCH .................. 6.9 .... 16.6 ... -4.2 ... 098 ... 105 .... 11, 9
    rameire ..................... 6.8 .... 13.0 ... -5.8 ... 080 ... 101 ...... 9, 9
    jd ............................ 6.8 .... 14.5 ... -5.8 ... 092 ... 108 ...... 9, 8
    okla ......................... 6.8 .... 13.4 ... -3.2 ... 095 ... 110 ...... 7,10
    snowstreams ............. 6.7 .... 14.1 ... -4.3 ... 105 ... 103 .... 10, 9
    traecy1 .................... 6.6 .... 15.5 ... -4.2 ... 125 ... 095 .... 11,12
    dacogawa ................. 6.6 .... 15.2 ... -7.0 ... 130 ... 090 ...... 8,12

    Con Sensus .............. 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 100 ...... 9, 9

    Rickylovesuall ............ 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 095 .... 11,10
    Melanoma* ............... 6.6 .... 14.3 ... -4.6 ... 097 ... 100 .... 12,10
    kindredspirit .............. 6.5 .... 14.9 ... -4.9 ... 110 ... 090 ...... 9, 9
    Lumi ........................ 6.5 .... 13.8 ... -5.0 ... 093 ... 100 ...... 8, 9
    MiNdGaM3 ................ 6.5 .... 15.1 ... -4.9 .... 088 ... 100 .... 12, 8
    catch.23 .................. 6.5 .... 14.2 ... -4.0 ... 080 ... 110 .... 10, 9
    pauldry .................... 6.5 .... 13.1 ... -5.5 ... 099 ... 094 .... 10,10
    Harps ...................... 6.9 .... 16.6 ... -4.2 ... 098 ... 105 .... 11, 9
    Iancar29 .................. 6.5 .... 15.0 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 085 .... 10,12
    M.T. Cranium ............ 6.4 .... 15.5 ... -6.5 ... 105 ... 133 .... 11,11
    dexter647 ................. 6.4 .... 15.2 ... -5.9 ... 080 ... 080 ...... 7, 9
    Wolfe_IRE ................. 6.3 .... 14.0 ... -6.5 ... 100 ... 105 .... 10,11
    waterways ................ 6.3 .... 14.1 ... -7.5 ... 090 ... 090 ...... 9, 7
    lostinashford ............. 6.2 .... 13.2 ... -3.9 ... 094 ... 090 ...... 9, 7
    John mac ................. 6.2 .... 15.7 ... -4.5 ... 095 ... 103 ...... 8,11
    Sponge Bob .............. 6.1 .... 14.4 ... -4.8 ... 090 ... 107 .... 10, 9
    homolumo ................. 6.0 .... 14.5 ... -6.8 ... 111 ... 099 .... 10,11
    mickger844posts ........ 5.9 .... 13.1 ... -6.8 ... 085 ... 124 .... 11,12
    Jerry Seinfeld ............ 5.8 .... 15.8 ... -4.5 ... 088 ... 115 ...... 7, 7
    Redsunset ................ 5.7 .... 13.0 ... -7.5 ... 075 ... 145 ...... 9,11
    Danno ...................... 5.7 .... 14.6 ... -6.2 ... 135 ... 110 .... 10, 9
    octo ........................ 5.5 .... 14.0 ... -5.0 ... 075 ... 115 ...... 7, 7
    dasa29 ..................... 5.5 .... 12.5 ... -4.0 ... 105 ... 095 ...... 8, 8

    _______________________________________________________

    * late entry (added in later edit)

    I believe that all regular contestants have now entered (on time too) but will leave it open for new entries until end of Saturday.

    Welcome to our new entrants, and a note to newly entered recent "regulars" such as bsal and WolfeIRE -- although you can't qualify for the annual contest, I will post your averages after December just for comparison.

    The consensus above will remain contest-worthy and further entries will not change it (because it is already based on regular entrants). Seems that the consensus is for a slightly colder and drier month than normal although the differences are very slight and there's a split into two camps evident probably based on how the second half of the month is perceived -- the bonus question data for some entries have been rounded as per the rules (see post 1) since verification is against a 12z temperature that has no decimal place.

    Good luck, if you missed it, I have updated the scoring for the year over in the October thread. The race is quite tight near the top now, as we round the turn for home. Even Con Sensus has a chance to win (nooo).


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    #48
    catch.23
    Closed Accounts Posts: 152 ✭✭catch.23


    IMT value for November so far ( i.e. from 1 day) is 3.52.

    :cool:


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    #49
    Melanoma
    Registered Users Posts: 310 ✭✭Melanoma


    6.6 14.3 -4.6 96.8 100 11.8 9.5


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    #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Moorepark recorded -3.3 C on Saturday morning.

    Hope that a mod will sticky this thread soon.


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    #51
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Met E predicting top temps around 9-10c for sat and sun now. The monthly q will come down to the merest fractions of 1c :)


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    #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just a reminder, the bonus question asked for temperatures at 12z not max although there may be little difference. This is why I only required whole numbers and not decimals, the actuals will be whole numbers as somebody reads these off the site (not the best hour for me to promise to do that, imagine they would be recoverable later).


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    #53
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Ogimet does not carry synops for Athenry MT but if I remember between 12.20 and 1.15 I will screenshot for you.

    Someone like Wolfie or DE may know where synops may be found or else PM our Met Eireann poster and ask fir them.


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    #54
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    People (not me) on the weather forum know everything weatherly.

    Theyll know MT


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    #55
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first seven days, the IMT sits at 6.0, the rainfall is running behind normal pace at about 70% of normal, and sunshine is considerably ahead, about 130 per cent. Normal sunshine appears to be something like 2.5 hours a day, so any day that is mostly sunny makes up for three dull days.


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    #56
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Think you've mixed my predictions up with DOCARCH MT, in the above table at least!

    6.5 .... 15.4 .... -4.5 .... 115 .... 120 .... 8,7

    Going quite well so far, rainfall and temperature should pick up a bit this week


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    #57
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Harps wrote: »
    Think you've mixed my predictions up with DOCARCH MT, in the above table at least!

    6.5 .... 15.4 .... -4.5 .... 115 .... 120 .... 8,7

    Going quite well so far, rainfall and temperature should pick up a bit this week

    Thanks for spotting that, I would have noticed something wrong when I got around to scoring because you are actually in the right place in the table (that's because I thought I had block copied your data, and evidently had not because DOCARCH was the last entry before yours.) This is maybe TMI but the reason this happened was as follows, I do the table by block copying all the entries that show up under the reply box, then I go to page one in another window and block copy those, page two etc, and check page three where I found yours as the only one that didn't show up in the first operation, so I had a different operation than usual there, just to copy your entry, normally I copy the names too, but trying to be clever I just noted your name and where to place it in the table, etc. At least that tends to reassure me that all the other entries are probably okay, I have checked three at random from each page and they are okay anyway.

    Will now reproduce the table as it will avoid the possibility of scoring the wrong predictions for your score.

    REVISED TABLE OF ENTRIES (correcting error in previous table)

    Forecaster ................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max 10,11
    ______________________________________________________________


    Strasser ................... 7.2 .... 13.5 ... -5.3 ... 100 ... 100 ...... 8,12
    200motels ................. 7.1 .... 14.1 ... -3.6 ... 123 ... 080 ...... 8, 9
    cherryghost .............. 7.1 .... 13.9 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 085 .... 11,12
    talkabout .................. 7.0 .... 14.8 ... -4.2 ... 110 ... 090 ...... 9,10
    Bsal ......................... 7.0 .... 13.9 ... -5.2 ... 107 ... 098 ...... 8, 8
    NeVeR ...................... 7.0 .... 13.7 ... -3.1 ... 082 ... 105 .... 10, 9
    Tae laidir .................. 7.0 .... 14.3 ... -3.9 ... 110 ... 105 ...... 8, 8
    SeaFields .................. 7.0 .... 15.0 ... -5.5 ... 080 ... 100 ...... 4, 8
    nilhg ........................ 7.0 .... 15.5 ... -5.5 ... 105 ... 095 .... 12,14
    Hammer Archer .......... 6.9 .... 15.1 ... -5.2 ... 089 ... 090 ...... 9,11
    delw ........................ 6.9 .... 13.7 ... -3.8 ... 104 ... 096 .... 13,10
    jambofc .................... 6.9 .... 14.9 ... -3.5 ... 110 ... 110 ...... 8, 8
    NIALL D .................... 6.9 .... 14.8 ... -5.3 ... 089 ... 100 ...... 9,10
    H2UMrsRobinson ......... 6.9 .... 15.2 ... -3.9 ... 096 ... 076 .... 12,13
    Joe Public ................. 6.9 .... 13.9 ... -4.9 ... 089 ... 109 ...... 9, 9
    DOCARCH .................. 6.9 .... 16.6 ... -4.2 ... 098 ... 105 .... 11, 9
    rameire ..................... 6.8 .... 13.0 ... -5.8 ... 080 ... 101 ...... 9, 9
    jd ............................ 6.8 .... 14.5 ... -5.8 ... 092 ... 108 ...... 9, 8
    okla ......................... 6.8 .... 13.4 ... -3.2 ... 095 ... 110 ...... 7,10
    snowstreams ............. 6.7 .... 14.1 ... -4.3 ... 105 ... 103 .... 10, 9
    traecy1 .................... 6.6 .... 15.5 ... -4.2 ... 125 ... 095 .... 11,12
    dacogawa ................. 6.6 .... 15.2 ... -7.0 ... 130 ... 090 ...... 8,12

    Con Sensus .............. 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 100 ...... 9, 9

    Rickylovesuall ............ 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 095 .... 11,10
    Melanoma* ............... 6.6 .... 14.3 ... -4.6 ... 097 ... 100 .... 12,10
    kindredspirit .............. 6.5 .... 14.9 ... -4.9 ... 110 ... 090 ...... 9, 9
    Lumi ........................ 6.5 .... 13.8 ... -5.0 ... 093 ... 100 ...... 8, 9
    MiNdGaM3 ................ 6.5 .... 15.1 ... -4.9 .... 088 ... 100 .... 12, 8
    catch.23 .................. 6.5 .... 14.2 ... -4.0 ... 080 ... 110 .... 10, 9
    pauldry .................... 6.5 .... 13.1 ... -5.5 ... 099 ... 094 .... 10,10
    Harps ...................... 6.5 .... 15.4 ... -4.5 ... 115 ... 120 ...... 8, 7
    Iancar29 .................. 6.5 .... 15.0 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 085 .... 10,12
    M.T. Cranium ............ 6.4 .... 15.5 ... -6.5 ... 105 ... 133 .... 11,11
    dexter647 ................. 6.4 .... 15.2 ... -5.9 ... 080 ... 080 ...... 7, 9
    Wolfe_IRE ................. 6.3 .... 14.0 ... -6.5 ... 100 ... 105 .... 10,11
    waterways ................ 6.3 .... 14.1 ... -7.5 ... 090 ... 090 ...... 9, 7
    lostinashford ............. 6.2 .... 13.2 ... -3.9 ... 094 ... 090 ...... 9, 7
    John mac ................. 6.2 .... 15.7 ... -4.5 ... 095 ... 103 ...... 8,11
    Sponge Bob .............. 6.1 .... 14.4 ... -4.8 ... 090 ... 107 .... 10, 9
    homolumo ................. 6.0 .... 14.5 ... -6.8 ... 111 ... 099 .... 10,11
    mickger844posts ........ 5.9 .... 13.1 ... -6.8 ... 085 ... 124 .... 11,12
    Jerry Seinfeld ............ 5.8 .... 15.8 ... -4.5 ... 088 ... 115 ...... 7, 7
    Redsunset ................ 5.7 .... 13.0 ... -7.5 ... 075 ... 145 ...... 9,11
    Danno ...................... 5.7 .... 14.6 ... -6.2 ... 135 ... 110 .... 10, 9
    octo ........................ 5.5 .... 14.0 ... -5.0 ... 075 ... 115 ...... 7, 7
    dasa29 ..................... 5.5 .... 12.5 ... -4.0 ... 105 ... 095 ...... 8, 8

    _______________________________________________________

    * late entry (added in later edit)

    Harps entry corrected


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    #58
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    What stations are used for IMT MT?


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    #59
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT uses Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Carlow Oak Park and Shannon. Quite often Casement is close to the mean, the southern stations run as much as one degree above and the other two somewhat below, depending on the airflow, Claremorris of course is more responsive to a mild westerly and in some months can run above Casement. We looked at a larger network but the two most obvious additions like Cork or Valentia and Ballyhaise or somewhere else inland north would probably cancel out and leave the IMT about the same.


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    #60
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    8c http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp


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    #61
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for noting that 8 C for me, I slept through it. So unless it's 10 C on Sunday, we could have one or more correct forecasts for both days. I can see 7,8,9,11,12 covered by those who said 8 for today. When this is scored, if the clusters of equal errors are large, I will break them by smallest error either day. Will post the table again on Monday with these bonus scores settled just so you know where you stand.


This discussion has been closed.
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