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November 2012 Boards forecast contest

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13

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    #62
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Athenry hit 8c @ 11 I'll post the 12z by 1pm. I have screenshots as well if anyone wants them :)


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    #63
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    9c http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp


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    #64
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Lumi and 200 motels won it outright by my reckoning.


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    #65
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for noting those values (8,9) over the weekend, here's the breakdown of bonus points (the whole table appears, the bonus question is converted to a score out of ten).

    The scores were converted directly from errors rather than ranking which would have created too many clusters, here's how I did it. The two correct forecasts scored ten. All those with one degree error (which would have to be on one day) got 9. All those with two degrees and one day correct got 8. All those with two degrees of error both days one, got 7. Same logic for three degrees, 6 and 5 point groups. From there, I just went down the table without dividing the smaller groups, so four degrees of error got you four points, five degrees three points, etc, and 8 or more scored zero.

    Forecaster ................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max 10,11
    ______________________________________________________________


    Strasser ................... 7.2 .... 13.5 ... -5.3 ... 100 ... 100 ..... 4
    200motels ................. 7.1 .... 14.1 ... -3.6 ... 123 ... 080 .... 10
    cherryghost .............. 7.1 .... 13.9 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 085 ..... 2
    talkabout .................. 7.0 .... 14.8 ... -4.2 ... 110 ... 090 ..... 7
    Bsal ......................... 7.0 .... 13.9 ... -5.2 ... 107 ... 098 ..... 9
    NeVeR ...................... 7.0 .... 13.7 ... -3.1 ... 082 ... 105 ..... 8
    Tae laidir .................. 7.0 .... 14.3 ... -3.9 ... 110 ... 105 ..... 9
    SeaFields .................. 7.0 .... 15.0 ... -5.5 ... 080 ... 100 ..... 3
    nilhg ........................ 7.0 .... 15.5 ... -5.5 ... 105 ... 095 ..... 0
    Hammer Archer .......... 6.9 .... 15.1 ... -5.2 ... 089 ... 090 ..... 5
    delw ........................ 6.9 .... 13.7 ... -3.8 ... 104 ... 096 ..... 2
    jambofc .................... 6.9 .... 14.9 ... -3.5 ... 110 ... 110 ..... 9
    NIALL D .................... 6.9 .... 14.8 ... -5.3 ... 089 ... 100 ..... 7
    H2UMrsRobinson ......... 6.9 .... 15.2 ... -3.9 ... 096 ... 076 ..... 0
    Joe Public ................. 6.9 .... 13.9 ... -4.9 ... 089 ... 109 ..... 9
    DOCARCH .................. 6.9 .... 16.6 ... -4.2 ... 098 ... 105 ..... 6
    rameire ..................... 6.8 .... 13.0 ... -5.8 ... 080 ... 101 ..... 9
    jd ............................ 6.8 .... 14.5 ... -5.8 ... 092 ... 108 ..... 7
    okla ......................... 6.8 .... 13.4 ... -3.2 ... 095 ... 110 ..... 7
    snowstreams ............. 6.7 .... 14.1 ... -4.3 ... 105 ... 103 ..... 8
    traecy1 .................... 6.6 .... 15.5 ... -4.2 ... 125 ... 095 ..... 2
    dacogawa ................. 6.6 .... 15.2 ... -7.0 ... 130 ... 090 ..... 6

    Con Sensus .............. 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 100 ...... 9

    Rickylovesuall ............ 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 095 ..... 4
    Melanoma* ............... 6.6 .... 14.3 ... -4.6 ... 097 ... 100 ..... 3
    kindredspirit .............. 6.5 .... 14.9 ... -4.9 ... 110 ... 090 ..... 9
    Lumi ........................ 6.5 .... 13.8 ... -5.0 ... 093 ... 100 .... 10
    MiNdGaM3 ................ 6.5 .... 15.1 ... -4.9 .... 088 ... 100 ..... 3
    catch.23 .................. 6.5 .... 14.2 ... -4.0 ... 080 ... 110 ..... 8
    pauldry .................... 6.5 .... 13.1 ... -5.5 ... 099 ... 094 ..... 5
    Harps ...................... 6.5 .... 15.4 ... -4.5 ... 115 ... 120 ..... 8
    Iancar29 .................. 6.5 .... 15.0 ... -4.9 ... 096 ... 085 ..... 3
    M.T. Cranium ............ 6.4 .... 15.5 ... -6.5 ... 105 ... 133 ..... 3
    dexter647 ................. 6.4 .... 15.2 ... -5.9 ... 080 ... 080 ..... 9
    Wolfe_IRE ................. 6.3 .... 14.0 ... -6.5 ... 100 ... 105 ..... 4
    waterways ................ 6.3 .... 14.1 ... -7.5 ... 090 ... 090 ..... 5
    lostinashford ............. 6.2 .... 13.2 ... -3.9 ... 094 ... 090 ..... 5
    John mac ................. 6.2 .... 15.7 ... -4.5 ... 095 ... 103 ...... 8
    Sponge Bob .............. 6.1 .... 14.4 ... -4.8 ... 090 ... 107 ..... 8
    homolumo ................. 6.0 .... 14.5 ... -6.8 ... 111 ... 099 ..... 4
    mickger844posts ........ 5.9 .... 13.1 ... -6.8 ... 085 ... 124 ..... 2
    Jerry Seinfeld ............ 5.8 .... 15.8 ... -4.5 ... 088 ... 115 ..... 5
    Redsunset ................ 5.7 .... 13.0 ... -7.5 ... 075 ... 145 ..... 5
    Danno ...................... 5.7 .... 14.6 ... -6.2 ... 135 ... 110 ..... 8
    octo ........................ 5.5 .... 14.0 ... -5.0 ... 075 ... 115 ..... 5
    dasa29 ..................... 5.5 .... 12.5 ... -4.0 ... 105 ... 095 ..... 9

    _______________________________________________________

    * late entry (added in later edit)

    Harps entry corrected


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    #66
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I was genuinely wondering how you would score it, I thought the 2 lads deserved a 10 each anyway which is what transpired. Did you allow for 1 and 2 degrees of error on two separate days BTW?? :)


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    #67
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    I was genuinely wondering how you would score it, Did you allow for 1 and 2 degrees of error on two separate days BTW?? :)


    You mean like
    Harps ...................... 6.5 .... 15.4 ... -4.5 ... 115 ... 120 ...... 8, 7

    Could be a recount of the Galway vote:)

    Forgive me for suggesting a score of 5 for each correct answer and in each case subtract 1 for each degree out.


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    #68
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Harps won't ask for a recount, his forecast was corrected in the table and the points are based on that.

    The other method suggested is only slightly different, I can see a few cases where scores would be 1-2 different. But this was the closest I could get to the usual distribution and it does reward those at 2 and 3 error points who had one day right on. To have one error point, you must have one day right on anyway, so all those people would get 9 points under the alternative system too. If your errors were (0,4) then you're stuck with four points in my system and could get six in Joe's. At a rough check the average score in the suggested alternative would be higher by 1.5 and that would skew the results for the month. If I went just by rank order than I would be stuck with very odd groupings like half the field getting eight points. This seems to provide a larger reward for the best (closest) forecasts, so I'm comfortable with it.


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    #69
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Fine by me. It is an awkward precedent if a more granular score is available in future, eg to 0.1 increments of an mm in a precip question and it could probably be fairer were the Monthly Qs in post 1 of a thread to mention the scoring schema seeing as we have a new year starting and all.

    Alternatively put in a "Judges Decision on scoring is final which is why we have a Judge" clause to save all that bother. :D


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    #70
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just adding that yes both days counted and yes I have just finished checking all scores against this scoring system:

    Errors

    0,0 ... 10

    1,0 or 0,1 ... 9

    2,0 or 0,2 ... 8

    1,1 ... 7

    3,0 or 0,3 ... 6

    1,2 or 2,1 ... 5

    4 total ... 4

    5 total ... 3

    6 total ... 2

    (nobody had 7 total)

    8 or more total ... 0

    I guess this is a case of creative editing of the rules, if I had followed the letter of the rules on rank order, I have to extend ties with equal points so in the table you actually see, all the 10s and 9s would be 10s (a total of ten) then that takes you into eight territory where another eleven people were tied, so you would have half the contest getting 10 or 8, then the next batch (including anyone with 2 deg error) would technically start at 5. This seemed like too big a deviation from the spirit of the bonus question which is basically to try to award equal numbers of points in rank order. If the actual values had come in higher where fewer people guessed, I could probably have used the usual system. So it's mainly a reminder to me that I should pick bonus questions that will create a range of answers that won't overlap (that precip question last month was perfect for that, almost no ties). :)



    By the way, current IMT 6.4 C and looks to me like rain only about 50% before this batch started.


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    #71
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    A bit confused as to why my score was being discussed but the scoring system makes perfect sense to me for a change :D Seems perfectly fair

    Looks like quite a bit of rain in the week ahead so hopefully that'll bump the figures a bit, all going well for me that aside


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    #72
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    My neck muscles have gone tight for the first time since May.

    FEAR THE SPONGE!


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    #73
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Oak Park made 13.6c so far today and that will be sorely tested over the next 36 hours.


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    #74
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    13.7c max on ogimet today

    Think some of the non ogimet stations might have busted 14 though like Pheonix

    Either way im screwed


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    #75
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭John mac


    i think we will get 15.7 in Dublin tuesday or wednesday . :D


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    #76
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Phoenix Park made 14.2c yesterday and is the only station showing 14c in the 12z Hourly today.


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    #77
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    Shannon made 14c today.
    LINK


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    #78
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    And so did the Phoenix Park, looks like 14.2c might be the top temp this month.


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    #79
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE after 14 days ...

    The second week averaged 8.3 C for IMT which now sits around 7.1-7.2 C.

    Precip near 110% boosting month to 80%

    Dull so month at 100% now.


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    #80
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Phoenix Park hit 14.5 C on Monday.

    IMT was 7.2 C through 19th, estimated 7.3 C after today.

    Rainfall now running neck and neck with average, next update on that due on Thursday.

    FYI, third annual winter forecast contest (seasonal) thread open, entries due by 1 Dec so plenty of time to think about that one.


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    #81
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Phoenix Park hit 14.5 C on Monday.

    Bullseye for Con Sensus - again!


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    #82
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,362 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Bullseye for Con Sensus - again!

    and me ;)


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    #83
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE after 21 days ...

    IMT for week was 7.3 C and for month now 7.2 C.

    Precip for week was 137% bringing the month to 99% of normal.

    Sunshine appears to have taken a boost (about 140%) leaving the month around 113% of normal.

    Would say from the model runs that the IMT is likely to slump down into the mid-6 range to about 6.3 by end of month, precip will stay close to normal, sunshine may manage to get a bit further ahead, MAX is probably settled depending on what the Summary reports, and MIN could go lower.


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    #84
    catch.23
    Closed Accounts Posts: 152 ✭✭catch.23


    Yesterdays IMT value was 1.11C. :eek:


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    #85
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 376 ✭✭waterways


    Mullingar had -3.1 C yesterday and Makree Castle -3.4


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    #86
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, I saw Markree at -4 after midnight while doing my forecast, so it will probably come in lower still on today's report, perhaps one or two other sites as well -- the IMT fell about 0.3 on Saturday's cold readings and will probably keep falling this week. After Saturday it stood at 6.86, could be 6.7 rounded after today. From now to end of month, days that average 3 will each bring down the IMT by about 0.1 deg.

    I think if you have about 100% precip and 120% sunshine you'll be happy too.


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    #87
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    e about 100% precip and 120% sunshine you'll be happy too.


    I'm not the furthest from either but can you possibly manage precisely a 6.1c on the IMT. ?? :D


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    #88
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -4.3c for Claremorris possibly lower for Markree


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    #89
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,427 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    23.4mm rain today and counting. Moderate rain at the moment and cold and breezy. 5.4C and steady for hours now.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #90
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 376 ✭✭waterways


    pauldry wrote: »
    -4.3c for Claremorris possibly lower for Markree

    yes -4.5 C


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    #91
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will post the December contest later today, just need to work out the new posting arrangements with Sponge Bob who offered to provide an upgrade.

    Will also boot the winter forecast contest to the top of the charts and now's the time to think about entering that one. Deadline for both will be Saturday with penalties for later entries.

    I am not sure that -4.5 C is the lowest we will see, some clearing around Wednesday could allow for an even colder reading, we shall see ... but all that rain on Sunday in a few spots won't have a huge impact because eight or nine stations were more or less dry.


This discussion has been closed.
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