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November 2012 Boards forecast contest

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    #92
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Done and PM sent MT. There is a copy and paste restriction in Google of 1000 cells but 50 entrants x 6 questions is 300 cells so no problem unless there are 150 entrants. :)

    People should post DONE in the comp thread after they fill the form so we know its genuine.

    If you change yoru mind enter again, the last entry with a matching done will count and the other will be deleted.


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    #93
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,362 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Phoenix Park hit 14.5 C on Monday.

    .
    waterways wrote: »
    yes -4.5 C
    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    After Saturday it stood at 6.86, could be 6.7 rounded after today.

    I think if you have about 100% precip and 120% sunshine you'll be happy too.

    It's a pity today wasn't the last day. I'd be on for about 100 points without the bonus ;)
    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Table of entries for November forecast contest


    Forecaster ................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max 10,11
    ______________________________________________________________




    Rickylovesuall ............ 6.6 .... 14.5 ... -4.5 ... 120 ... 095 .... 11,10

    :pac:


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    #94
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    Well done bob. great work. Makes it easier for MT too. Ty


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    #95
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Every entry is autotimestamped in Irish Time the way it is set up. If MT has a special gmail address he can set that to Irish time to keep the timestamps consistent. He can share that sheet with another gmail address ( eg one set to BC time without affectin the stamping) Validation that it is genuine is by posting DONE in the normal monthly thread thereby generating a matching timestamp.

    All the data is stored in a Google Spreadsheet behind the form. Google spreadsheets has full version control so if anybody changes anything it is recorded.

    But if you change your mind on your entry you MUST enter all the data again through the form and post "done" or "done again" again in the thread.


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    #96
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We will go to that new system totally in January, I want to tinker with it or get Sponge Bob to tinker with it on the scoring aspect, the entry aspect looks great, and I figure it will be less confusing to change over then. Part of reason is that I am not at home base today and want to get the contest posted, my brain is fried and I don't have much time to work on the new system. If the form gets into the December thread it won't be a problem, not saying don't do it, just entries can be made any way people want and then we'll switch over totally for January. I am posting that contest next (have a few more minutes of internet time).


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    #97
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Post the December 2012 Comp the normal way MT and let people enter any way they want like you said.

    We can tinker in mid December when you have time for it.


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    #98
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE for the fourth week,

    IMT for the week was a bone-chilling 3.8 C and the month now sits at 6.4 C and likely to leak a bit more today and Friday (expect 6.1).

    The week was slightly wetter than normal over the grid, 116% and this adjusts the monthly value to 103% (estimate) so the final value will reveal the accuracy of my estimates figuring on very close to 100% as the finishing point.

    It was another chance to record bonus November sunshine which is not hard to do, about 130% at least for the week, and about 117% for the month now.

    With the weekend coming early in December, we will all have to wait for late Monday 3rd to learn the final results although I will have the final IMT and precip figures worked out late on Saturday so long as the "monthly data" sections are up to date on the Met-E website.

    The min could have changed but one or two possible sites have not updated their report for yesterday.


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    #99
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    (expect 6.1).

    Ching Ching Ching!!!!


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    #100
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT confirmed to be 6.1 C (Oak Park and Casement both at this figure, Mullingar was 5.5, Shannon 6.9, Claremorris 5.8).

    No final value for precip as one station in the grid (Shannon) has no monthly updated value but looking at the rest and estimating Shannon from previous report, we won't be far from 100%.

    Waiting for the final reports in the Summary on Monday to score the contest.


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    #101
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »

    No final value for precip as one station in the grid (Shannon) has no monthly updated value

    I have Shannon's Nov total at 121.4mm which is the sum of the daily reports on met.ie. This value may differ slightly to that showing on the monthly reports when updated as I have noticed more than once that the sum of the daily accumulations occasionally don't add to totals shown on the actual monthly data page, although any differences tend to be very small (within 2.0mm)

    Daily totals at Shannon for Nov as per met.ie 'yesterday's weather' reports:
    231022.jpg


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    #102
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The Mean in Shannon is 94.1mm

    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=518

    129% so.


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    #103
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay thanks guys, I estimated about that much when I reviewed the other data, and the monthly data section remains n/a but since I go by the graphs in the MS may as well save the calculations until then. I can see that some stations are a bit above normal and some a bit below, bet it comes in very close to 100%.


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    #104
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Shannon 129% is confirmed > http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-summary.asp


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    #105
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Summary has appeared and here are the final values ...

    IMT was 6.1 C

    MAX was 14.5 on 19th, Phoenix Park

    MIN was -4.5 on 25th, Markree

    PRC was 104% of normal (at the eleven stations used)

    SUN was 116% of normal (at the six stations used)

    Bonus was already discussed and scored, so will now proceed to breakfast and a hearty round of scoring when fully awake.


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    #106
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for November forecast contest

    Forecaster ................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max 10,11
    ______________________________________________________________

    Sponge Bob .............. 25 .... 19 ... 17 ... 10 ... 08 ..... 8 .... 87

    Con Sensus .............. 20 .... 20 ... 16 ... 12 ... 07 ..... 9 .... 84

    snowstreams ............. 19 .... 16 ... 18 ... 15 ... 07 ..... 8 .... 83
    Rickylovesuall ............ 20 .... 20 ... 20 ... 10 ... 06 ..... 4 .... 80
    kindredspirit .............. 21 .... 16 ... 16 ... 13 ... 05 ..... 9 .... 80

    John mac ................. 24 .... 08 ... 20 ... 12 ... 07 ..... 8 .... 79
    Tae laidir ................. 16 .... 18 ... 14 ... 13 ... 08 ..... 9 .... 78
    Harps ...................... 21 .... 09 ... 20 ... 11 ... 09 ..... 8 .... 78
    Lumi ....................... 21 .... 13 ... 15 ... 11 ... 07 .... 10 .... 77
    catch.23 ................. 21 .... 17 ... 15 ... 07 ... 09 ..... 8 .... 77
    talkabout ................. 16 .... 17 ... 17 ... 13 ... 05 ..... 7 .... 75
    Joe Public ................ 17 .... 14 ... 16 ... 10 ... 09 ..... 9 .... 75
    jambofc ................... 17 .... 16 ... 10 ... 13 ... 09 ..... 9 .... 74
    Jerry Seinfeld ............ 22 .... 07 ... 20 ... 10 ... 10 ..... 5 .... 74
    Iancar29 .................. 21 .... 15 ... 16 ... 12 ... 06 ..... 3 .... 73
    Melanoma* ............... 20 .... 18 ... 19 ... 13 ... 07 ..... 3 .... 80-8 = 72
    Bsal ......................... 16 .... 14 ... 13 ... 14 ... 06 ..... 9 .... 72
    MiNdGaM3 ................. 21 .... 14 ... 16 ... 10 ... 07 ..... 3 .... 71
    jd ............................ 18 .... 20 ... 07 ... 11 ... 08 ..... 7 .... 71
    NIALL D .................... 17 .... 17 ... 12 ... 10 ... 07 ..... 7 .... 70

    octo ........................ 19 .... 15 ... 15 ... 05 ... 10 ..... 5 .... 69
    lostinashford ............. 24 .... 07 ... 14 ... 12 ... 05 ..... 5 .... 67
    homolumo ................. 24 .... 20 ... 00 ... 13 ... 06 ..... 4 .... 67
    delw ........................ 17 .... 12 ... 13 ... 15 ... 06 ..... 2 .... 65
    cherryghost .............. 15 .... 14 ... 20 ... 10 ... 04 ..... 2 .... 65
    Danno ...................... 21 .... 19 ... 03 ... 05 ... 09 ..... 8 .... 65
    Hammer Archer .......... 17 .... 14 ... 13 ... 10 ... 05 ..... 5 .... 64
    200motels ................. 15 .... 16 ... 11 ... 09 ... 03 ... 10 .... 64
    Wolfe_IRE ................. 23 .... 15 ... 00 ... 14 ... 08 ..... 4 .... 64
    dasa29 ..................... 19 .... 00 ... 15 ... 15 ... 06 ..... 9 .... 64
    traecy1 .................... 20 .... 10 ... 17 ... 08 ... 06 ..... 2 .... 63
    okla ......................... 18 .... 09 ... 07 ... 12 ... 09 ..... 7 .... 62
    Strasser ................... 14 .... 10 ... 12 ... 14 ... 07 ..... 4 .... 61
    DOCARCH .................. 17 .... 00 ... 17 ... 13 ... 08 ..... 6 .... 61
    pauldry ..................... 21 .... 06 ... 10 ... 13 ... 06 ..... 5 .... 61
    dexter647 ................. 22 .... 13 ... 06 ... 07 ... 03 ..... 9 .... 60

    NeVeR ...................... 16 .... 12 ... 06 ... 09 ... 08 ..... 8 .... 59
    waterways ................ 23 .... 16 ... 00 ... 10 ... 05 ..... 5 .... 59
    SeaFields .................. 16 .... 15 ... 10 ... 07 ... 07 ..... 3 .... 58
    H2UMrsRobinson ......... 17 .... 13 ... 14 ... 12 ... 02 ..... 0 .... 58
    M.T. Cranium ............. 22 .... 10 ... 00 ... 15 ... 07 ..... 3 .... 57
    nilhg ........................ 16 .... 10 ... 10 ... 15 ... 06 ..... 0 .... 57
    rameire ..................... 18 .... 05 ... 07 ... 07 ... 07 ..... 9 .... 53
    dacogawa ................. 20 .... 13 ... 00 ... 06 ... 05 ..... 6 .... 50

    mickger844posts ........ 23 .... 06 ... 00 ... 09 ... 08 ..... 2 .... 48
    Redsunset ................ 21 .... 05 ... 00 ... 05 ... 04 ..... 5 .... 40
    __________________________________________________

    * late entry, penalized 10% (in Dec this changes to 5-10 pts regardless)

    Wow ... the field scored high this month, Con Sensus had its highest score (at 84) that I can recall, and only Sponge Bob managed to beat that with a stellar 87. Will have to look back through the archives, not too many scores in that range, also snowstreams, Rickylovesuall and kindredspirit reached the 80s. I have broken the table up into readable groups (by scores), now on to the annual table which should get very, very tight near the top.


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    #107
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Wheeeeee Number 1 for Christmas :D

    3081947009_21dc6e2f3c.jpg


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    #108
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Garish ^

    Updated Annual Scoring Table


    Rank*. Forecaster .... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N ... Total ... Contest (rank)

    2 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57..54..60..66..62..77 ... 598 ... 527 (1)
    1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64..77..41..46..48..87 ... 613 ... 526 (2)
    3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49..69..39..73..30..74 ... 590 ... 521 (3)
    5 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46..42..49..68..42..48..79 ... 568 ... 500 (4)
    4 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43..64..53..53..58..53 ... 583 ... 499 (5)

    6 .. Con Sensus ......58..28..31..46..48..41..54..50..58..58..84 ... 556 ... 497 (6)

    6 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75..32..43..49..44..78 ... 556 ... 493 (6)
    7 .. Hammer Archer .52..41..22..35..39..51..69..52..72..55..64 ... 552 ... 491 (7-t)
    10. Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36..66..58..55..51..80 ... 534 ... 491 (7-t)
    11. MiNdGaM3 ........33..11..31..45..70..56..64..43..53..56..71 ... 533 ... 491 (7-t)
    12t. jambofc ..........26..34..22..60..59..40..56..69..56..33..74 ... 529 ... 481 (10)
    9 .. jd ....................50..28..47..44..53..35..44..48..64..53..71 ... 537 ... 474 (11)
    14. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42..18..59..47..40..57 ... 524 ... 473 (12-t)
    18. snowstreams .....37..10..28..37..51..48..49..49..67..52..83 ... 511 ... 473 (12-t)
    15. pauldry .............61..48..45..31..49..56..49..22..39..61..61 ... 522 ... 469 (14)
    12t. waterways ......58..29..53..33..47..49..52..50..55..44..59 ... 529 ... 467 (15)
    8 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47..54..45..52..41..58 ... 545 ... 466 (16)
    17. mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46..62..45..46..77..48 ... 517 ... 464 (17)
    19. Harps ...............51..25..18..35..47..35..36..73..57..51..78 ... 500 ... 463 (18)
    16. kindredspirit ......60..48..39..22..50..35..41..40..42..61..80 ... 518 ... 461 (19)
    28. Danno ..............48..20..--..44..50..45..35..39..51..69..65 ... 466 ... 446 (20-t)
    26. cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35..36..53..59..47..65 ... 469 ... 446 (20-t)
    21. DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52..47..65..66..41..61 ... 492 ... 445 (22)
    20. okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33..55..63..46..33..62 ... 496 ... 444 (23)
    22. homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58..19..32..48..55..40..67 ... 483 ... 440 (24)
    24. delw ................57..57..15..25..39..49..52..41..36..42..65 ... 478 ... 438 (25)
    35. lostinashford .....--..--.. 37..34..40..52..59..40..59..44..67 ... 432 ... 432 (26)
    29. Joe Public ........42..21..08..53..66..30..38..47..30..50..75 ... 460 ... 431 (27)
    27. M.T. Cranium ....34..41..21..55..65..46..47..18..39..44..57 ... 467 ... 428 (28)
    25. Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32..25..66..39..61..73 ... 471 ... 425 (29)
    30t. dacogawa ......50..14..17..37..59..19..48..48..54..55..50 ... 451 ... 420 (30)
    34. NIALL D ...........29..20..28..44..42..32..--..62..63..47..70 ... 437 ... 417 (31)
    23. traecy1 ...........47..36..33..34..47..52..40..44..40..44..63 ... 480 ... 413 (32)
    30t. SeaFields .......33..15..57..44..36..35..63..49..29..32..58 ... 451 ... 407 (33)
    33. 200motels ........56..69..18..31..40..26..53..40..25..24..64 ... 446 ... 404 (34-t)
    37. talkabout .........42..26..20..05..58..32..41..66..--..44..75 ... 409 ... 404 (34-t)
    36. Strasser ...........--..20..52..38..29..16..47..43..46..66..61 ... 418 ... 402 (36-t)
    34. dasa29 ............44..30..16..44..33..29..50..42..58..37..64 ... 447 ... 402 (36-t)
    38. redsunset ........34..11..12..60..41..48..33..16..--..--..40 ... 295 ... 295 (38)

    No longer active ...

    37. K_1 .................40..25..71..22..33..59..42..42..--..--..-- ... 334 ... 312 (38)

    Watch for average scores for Bsal, Wolfe_IRE and any other forecasters with four or more entries ... those will be posted in the final tables for comparison.
    ___________________________________________________________

    Just a reminder, this was explained last month ... the rank at the end of each row is your main contest rank based on best nine scores out of eleven (or if you missed one or two, best nine in any case). The rank at the start of each row (which you'll notice is somewhat scrambled as to order) is your standing in the secondary contest (all scores) -- and it's very close at the top in both cases. Lumi, Sponge Bob, and Jerry Seinfeld are leading the pack to the finish line, with Rameire and John Mac also ahead of fast-closing Con Sensus (now there's an unpopular winner). Lots of movement back in the pack too.


This discussion has been closed.
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