waterford house prices

kuang1

I'm a potential house buyer in the waterford city area. Was wondering if anyone else found that prices generally (while obviously have been dropping) are STILL over priced?
Especially when you consider what David McWilliams, Ronan Lyons (of Daft.ie) and other economists of repute believe to be a reliable equation for valuing a property:
REAL Value = The potential rental income of the property over a 15 year period.
e.g. If houses in a certain locality are renting for in or around €750 a month (might vary slightly depending on number of bedrooms from house to house) then you can be pretty safe in estimating the real value of such houses to be worth €750 x 12 (months) x 15(years) = €135,000

(although I'm taking 15 years as a general average of several different opinions I've come across on this. Ronan Lyons said "10 to 15 years". McWilliams says 14. A retired estate agent I spoke to recently used to use 16 years as his guide.)

Incidentally my intention is not to infuriate anyone in negative equity...

Dan133269

Reni10 will be along soon to give you his strong opinion

In short OP, property prices have almost certainly not hit the bottom in Waterford. They appear to be bottoming out in certain parts of the country, although that may very well prove to be short lived. I predict another drop starting early next year as the glut of buyers taking advantage of the last availability of mortgage interest relief will disappear and there will be much less demand. What we are seeing is the emergence of micro-markets. Waterford property prices have not hit bottom and will not do so for a while yet.

kuang1

pretty much what I've been thinking Dan.
but i have to say that i dont think we'll see the end of mortgage interest relief. (and not just wishful thinking on my part) for the government to be seen to kill off first time buyer's temptation to enter market? thats a murder of votes in their own view. watch this space to see the current scheme extended or an 'instead of' plan to entice first time buyers into the market replacing it.
its a given.
(already whisperings of exactly this in sunday newspapers yesterday)

reni10

Dan133269 wrote: »

Reni10 will be along soon to give you his strong opinion

Hello!

In short when they get to 100-110k for a 3 bed semi on the Dunmore road they are rock bottom until then hold your money is my advice...

The property price register is showing that many people have taken between 120-140k for 3 bedders even when they were advertised in the 160-200k range so it is getting there but still a way to go...

nkay1985

That's an interesting way of valuing a property alright. I'm sure there are houses for sale in Waterford that match those criteria. I'm sure there are also those that do not. Do you have a particular area and/or type of house in mind OP? I'm sure we could find examples of both within that subset.

spankmemunkey

A friend of mine bought a house over the road from greenfields i think its called Fairfields? for 90 someting thousand.

I reckon if you go to buy a new home you wont get as much movement on the price as you will with a private sale.

On the other hand how much are you paying for rent at the moment? if you hang on another 2 years you will pay roughly 18000 in renting thats if your paying say 750 a month, thats money you could have been putting off your mortgage!

kuang1

well spank thats the crux of it really. up to now we've saved a fortune by renting. the house i've me eye on is still tagged at 27 years rental value which is a long way off the theoretical 'real' 15 years. i'd probably be willing to pay 18 years for it seeing as i only intend to buy once!

stefan idiot jones

Tricky one, wait until the market hits rock bottom and pick up a "bargain" but in the meantime flush rent money down the toilet or buy now and be content with still a good price for a property ? If you have your eye on one in particular then be careful on biding your time as all eggs in one basket type of thing, and although most people intend to buy just once in their life, most house owners move a couple of times.
Try not to get too focused on waiting for the perfect time to strike as that time may never come or that one you are after may not be available for a thousand different reasons. Carpe diem.

twistables

IM in the same position as OP, the only new house being built is out in cnoic caislean ballygunner and they seem to be selling, anybody have any views or advice on those? PS sorry if I slightly hijacked the thread!

kuang1

If it was up to me stefan, i'd rent the rest of my life and be v happy doing so. Rent being 'dead money' is merely a state of mind if you ask me. If i pay for a service and get that service provided in a timely and satisfactory manner then that's a fair exchange in my book. Rent to me is a service i pay for.
A house is something my wife wants yesterday. Im happy to make her happy. We both have the attitude of 'if its for us it won't pass us'...
Que sera.

kuang1

twistables wrote: »

IM in the same position as OP, the only new house being built is out in cnoic caislean ballygunner and they seem to be selling, anybody have any views or advice on those? PS sorry if I slightly hijacked the thread!

Seem to be selling...double and triple check every 'fact' you hear when it comes to property...estate agents generate a lot of guff as if we all didn't know!

nkay1985

kuang1 wrote: »

Seem to be selling...double and triple check every 'fact' you hear when it comes to property...estate agents generate a lot of guff as if we all didn't know!

Nah they're selling alright. I've been living there for three years at this stage and they're building as they sell. A friend of mine was looking to buy here recently and there were very few still available. Still a few of the terraces left that have been built a while now but, as for the 3- and 4-bed semis, not a lot.

twistables

kuang1 wrote: »

Seem to be selling...double and triple check every 'fact' you hear when it comes to property...estate agents generate a lot of guff as if we all didn't know!

As nkay said there selling alright, being for two viewings 9 months apart and 12 have being sold in that time so they are moving,

Dum_Dum

twistables wrote: »

As nkay said there selling alright, being for two viewings 9 months apart and 12 have being sold in that time so they are moving,

Have you actually seen people move in? I suspect many 'sales' are internal transfers within property development companies - designed to rig the property price register.

kuang1

Clearly these houses have officially sold, but i can't be the only one who finds it odd when you look at the property register that the amount of these selling sticks out like a sore thumb. Are they THAT good value compared to other available houses around waterford? Perhaps but i for one doubt it.
Is part of it a herd mentality or snowball effect if its not property companies moving stuff around to fudge various statistics?!

nkay1985

People are moving in alright. I don't know what you mean by property companies moving around.

I think the reason for the selling is that they're the only new houses being built in the whole dunmore road area and people feel they're fairly priced.

spankmemunkey

The 2 biggest things going to affect house sales here in waterford and therefore the prices is the Jobs scene and the significant overhang of empty properties in Waterford.

Meadowbank has a huge amount of houses empty and some being vandalised quite terribly at this stage, someone should set up a neighbour watch there, sad to see brand new houses with smashed windows and central heating ripped out! does anybody know if that developer is still going? there must be over 20 empty houses there at least!, FoxWood in Kilbarry has 4 brand new empty houses and im sure there are plenty of other estates round with new unsold houses.

I cant see an end to the decrease in prices Waterford, World and European economic recovery then Ireland(although we seem to be stabilising) then Waterford and we are still 2 hours away from Dublin Airport. I think Foreign investment will look at things in that light.

A recovery of jobs and better prospects for waterford will see a rise but until then i think its going to drop, Sorry for having such a pesimistic outlook I wish it was different.

twistables

Dum_Dum wrote: »

Have you actually seen people move in? I suspect many 'sales' are internal transfers within property development companies - designed to rig the property price register.

Yeah people are moving in alright, young families so I doubt it's "internal transfers"
But agree trying to distinguish what is bull and what is fact from the development company is hard, seem to be resionable priced and moving we don't want to loose out!

kuang1

Well if ye go for it best of luck. Just be ballsey when negotiating. Or if you're like me not very good at it , get someone to talk on your behalf who is!
For me its very unlikely that we'll be buying in the next 3-6months. I might get to the point of making an offer on a place but the offer amount will come from that 15 year formula i mentioned earlier.
That may well result in me being told to take a running jump but so be it!

Dan133269

kuang1 wrote: »

pretty much what I've been thinking Dan.
but i have to say that i dont think we'll see the end of mortgage interest relief. (and not just wishful thinking on my part) for the government to be seen to kill off first time buyer's temptation to enter market? thats a murder of votes in their own view. watch this space to see the current scheme extended or an 'instead of' plan to entice first time buyers into the market replacing it.
its a given.
(already whisperings of exactly this in sunday newspapers yesterday)

Yes, I agree. The government just don't seem to be able to stop tinkering with the market. Even Brian Hayes a few weeks ago encouraging people to take advantage before Mortgage Interest Relief runs out seemed quite bizarre. He was talking as if it would be too late to ever buy if people waited til after Xmas. If they do extend it, it would be a complete reversal of what they said they were going to do, but then again, we've seen that before. I'm sure they'll think of some other scheme to interfere in the market.

spankmemunkey wrote: »

The 2 biggest things going to affect house sales here in waterford and therefore the prices is the Jobs scene and the significant overhang of empty properties in Waterford.

This is the crux of the issue. In Waterford at the moment, we have higher unemployment than the rest of the country and a large stock of houses for sale. This is in addition to the rest of the factors weighing heavily on property prices, i.e. austerity measures, reduced household income, banks' narrowed criteria for lending, introduction of property tax and water rates, uncertainty in eurozone and with Ireland's debt.

Personally, I think unless a once in a lifetime house came up for sale at a great price, it would be very unwise to buy now and not wait to see how things turn out for the next while. That being said, if one were to buy now, I think you would easily be able to negotiate 15-20% off the asking price of most houses.

By the way, there is an accommodation and property section here on boards, if it's any use. There is also the website - www.thepropertypin.com which is for discussion of all things related to buying and selling residential property in Ireland.

spankmemunkey

I think its stupid for the government to ged rid of mortgage interest relief its just like putting another nail in the coffin, or is it the sign of the confidence they have in the property market, maybe they think its so cheap to buy now that people dont need incentives?

The question i would like to have an answer to is if i was to save a few bob say 30,000 euro would it be clever of me to put it down off my mortgage? on one side i want to reduce the mortgage on a house i bought 3 years ago but on the other hand i feel like a clown handing over that much and the mortgage would still be about 145,000 euro! not that if i had that kinda money just if the numbers came up!;)

Dicky Pride

Bought my house for 250k 5 years ago. House across the road just sold for 90k this week.

kuang1

The question i would like to have an answer to is if i was to save a few bob say 30,000 euro would it be clever of me to put it down off my mortgage? on one side i want to reduce the mortgage on a house i bought 3 years ago but on the other hand i feel like a clown handing over that much and the mortgage would still be about 145,000 euro! not that if i had that kinda money just if the numbers came up!;)[/Quote]
Well spank id certainly put it to the mortgage or most of it at least. Assuming you're on a variable rate coz otherwise there are penalties involved. Be careful that the bank not lower your repayment amounts tho coz the intention should be to shorten life length of mortgage rather than reduce amount repaid every month. I've heard banks will do this automatically or encourage you to do it so you need to specify that you want to shorten the the life of the mortgage. Remember the longer a mortgage survives the more money the banks make. (tracker mortgages being an exception)

wellboytoo

I disagree that there is a large overhang of unsold properties in Waterford,other than ferrybank, try to buy a property at the moment loads on daft.ie etc but not really for sale as they are looking for four year old prices for them. Properties priced to sell are being snapped up immediately

spankmemunkey

kuang1 wrote: »

The question i would like to have an answer to is if i was to save a few bob say 30,000 euro would it be clever of me to put it down off my mortgage? on one side i want to reduce the mortgage on a house i bought 3 years ago but on the other hand i feel like a clown handing over that much and the mortgage would still be about 145,000 euro! not that if i had that kinda money just if the numbers came up!;)

Well spank id certainly put it to the mortgage or most of it at least. Assuming you're on a variable rate coz otherwise there are penalties involved. Be careful that the bank not lower your repayment amounts tho coz the intention should be to shorten life length of mortgage rather than reduce amount repaid every month. I've heard banks will do this automatically or encourage you to do it so you need to specify that you want to shorten the the life of the mortgage. Remember the longer a mortgage survives the more money the banks make. (tracker mortgages being an exception)[/QUOTE]

I cant put the money off now cos im fixed for the next 2 years and at that point my mortgage would be roughly 175,000 if i was to give them 30 it would reduce it to 145,000. I would most deffinetly like to bring keep the payments the same and reduce the life of the mortgage although i am paying just under 1000 a month give or take a few euro.

I rang my bank and asked them was there not some way to allow people to pay money off a fixed mortgage without incurring penalties seen as we're in unchartered territory and that i was saving money and that that was causing the economy to further contract, so much so that i was told to write a letter to patrick honahen govenor of the central back to encourage people with money to allow them pay off mortgages if they are in a position to do so or pay money off but incentivising it and giving people breaks if they did so, which would get the money thats stuck in bank accounts flowing again.

I got the usual drivel reply though

My bank told me that i could put my money into CREDIT into my mortgage account say 10,000 and that would reduce the interest payments on my mortgage every month by 100 euro.

However i rang up MORTGAGE INTEREST RELIEF people and they told me that i would be better waiting til my mortgage interest relief was up because it would affect my mortgage interest relief, She told me to wait til my interest relief was up and then start paying off lump sums if i wished to do so.

Sorry if the above post was a bit incoherent as im typing as fast cos im out the doorrrrrr............................................................

anto9

Regarding the Apartments ,3 in number that were offered for 15,000 Euro ,down from 27,000 euro ,i have the following experience .I emailed the Auctioneer about the position because they seemed too good to be true .The Auctioneer informed me at that stage they were taking offers above 18,000 euro .Does anybody know what they really sold for .They were near to the Aldi shop in central Waterford i believe .
PS ,i thought it a kind of scam to be offering the Apartments at 15,000 on Daft .ie ,without saying that it was a bidding war .

Hoffmans

looking at daft it seems the daft auctioneers have upped prices around 10%, hold your cash till after the budget, the auctioneers are gamblng on a rush before the expiry of the consessions in last years budget but now it looks like they will be extended
heres where the market is really at anything above is overpriced..
depending on location a.d condition..
2 bed town apartment 20k
2bed townhouse 30k
3 bed semi 40-80k
4bed semi 50-90 k
4 bed detached 100-150k

kuang1

yeah hoff i agree.
those estimates seem in line with the 15 year rental formula.
btw...big meeting held in hospital (ardkeen) this week informing all staff there that plans are afoot to downsize it to a 'county hospital'. if these plans go ahead this will pull a lot of services from the hospital, and with it up to 1000 staff. that's 1000 less people that need to live in waterford, particularly the dunmore road area.
this is definitely not a way that i would like to get a reasonable house at a reasonable price...and lets all hope it doesnt become a reality.
reality right now for me tho is to bide my time til the new year. see what the budget brings.
Renting ain't that bad!

Dan133269

I had to post this up. Too funny. Apartment for sale in Canada square in town.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=680645

Located on the first floor, with its own front door, this apartment features an open-plan combined kitchen-livingroom. All three bedrooms feature built in storage, and the property has both a bathroom (with bath) and a separate shower room with an electric power shower.

It's OWN FRONT DOOR! Plus a bathroom with a bath and a shower room with a shower!

nicolaed

Dan133269 wrote: »

I had to post this up. Too funny. Apartment for sale in Canada square in town.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=680645



It's OWN FRONT DOOR! Plus a bathroom with a bath and a shower room with a shower!

and toilet with drainage,windows with glass etc

kuang1

An example (albeit an extreme one) of how estate agents see the general public as ignorant, uneducated sheep.
EAs are the bottom of the barrel bar none.