Buying Gold

DarkDusk

freeze4real wrote: »

if you really want to learn about gold visit some proper gold forums, not likes of this were a few know about proper investing or trading.

This may be good advice but if you want info specific for buying gold/silver in Ireland it may be difficult to find it. I am on many precious metal forums, silverseek being one of the best imho.

Roonbox

house_speaker wrote: »

perish the thought but what happens if a global collapse doesnt happen , have you a contingency plan for a drop in PM prices ?

all i ever heard from goldbugs is that when the sh1t hits the fan , metals are all that will have any value

Avoiding a financial collapse does not mean gold will drop, collapse aside gold has a long way to climb to get back to its historical average based on the amount of USD that has been printed since 2000.

And do you really think they will turn off the printing presses if we do have trouble?

DarkDusk

Roonbox wrote: »

Avoiding a financial collapse does not mean gold will drop, collapse aside gold has a long way to climb to get back to its historical average based on the amount of USD that has been printed since 2000.

And do you really think they will turn off the printing presses if we do have trouble?

Exactly


I wasn't going to reply because he's banned...

Bungarra

Hello....

Quick question. I'm living in Australia at the moment and have some gold and silver I'd like to bring to Ireland and leave there. Does anyone have any suggestions on the best way to go about this. Hand luggage and pockets for gold? May just leave the silver in Aus unless it's easy. What are the chances of being caught for tax? It wouldn't be much. maybe 2or 3oz gold.

DarkDusk

Bungarra wrote: »

Hello....

Quick question. I'm living in Australia at the moment and have some gold and silver I'd like to bring to Ireland and leave there. Does anyone have any suggestions on the best way to go about this. Hand luggage and pockets for gold? May just leave the silver in Aus unless it's easy. What are the chances of being caught for tax? It wouldn't be much. maybe 2or 3oz gold.

I'd doubt you'd be caught for 2 or 3 oz. Pockets or hand luggage would be your safest bet, you'd probably get away with them in your suitcase, they're hardly going to open up your bag to get a few ounces of gold... Don't count on this advice though, I've had no experience with it. I think I heard someone on the forum mentioning they had a similar situation, have a look around and you might find it...

DarkDusk

SyntonFenix wrote: »

Gold is likely to hit $3000 by 2014. Why? Dollar is being debased, OBama will continue his policies, therefore quantitative easing. Add the "fiscal cliff", China and other countries stock piling gold, Euro trouble, Yen trouble, MIddle East trouble......

Totally agree, but the gains in silver will be greater imho.

[Jackass]

Gold is definitely in a bubble right now. I'd be very cautious. Timing is everything....

If I was holding it, I'd be plotting an exit strategy. Not urgently perhaps, but would be considering when to exit.

[Jackass]

SyntonFenix wrote: »

Gold is likely to hit $3000 by 2014. Why? Dollar is being debased, OBama will continue his policies, therefore quantitative easing. Add the "fiscal cliff", China and other countries stock piling gold, Euro trouble, Yen trouble, MIddle East trouble......

This is absolute classic bubble talk...

This time will be different because....

areyawell

There is no gauruntee that gold will increase. If you believe that your living in a dream land. Yes the graphs look like it will but can easily fall!

DarkDusk

areyawell wrote: »

There is no gauruntee that gold will increase. If you believe that your living in a dream land. Yes the graphs look like it will but can easily fall!

Why would it "easily fall"? Please explain.


For people who think that gold is in a bubble: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-03/gold-bubble

Bungarra

DarkDusk wrote: »

I'd doubt you'd be caught for 2 or 3 oz. Pockets or hand luggage would be your safest bet, you'd probably get away with them in your suitcase, they're hardly going to open up your bag to get a few ounces of gold... Don't count on this advice though, I've had no experience with it. I think I heard someone on the forum mentioning they had a similar situation, have a look around and you might find it...

Thanks Darkdust, I'll stick it in my pockets and hand luggage and see what happens. Wouldn't be too happy leaving anything valuable in my checked bag for fear they'd lose it. Also, just got my first platinum during the week. A platypus, little beauty...

sameoldname

Yes, gold is in a bubble.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

Doesn't mean you can't make money off it but just remember if you're buying now you are coming to the party late and buying high so be prepared to get rid of it quickly.

DarkDusk

sameoldname wrote: »

Yes, gold is in a bubble.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

Doesn't mean you can't make money off it but just remember if you're buying now you are coming to the party late and buying high so be prepared to get rid of it quickly.

I really have to laugh at this. Did you even look at the chart or did you decide to pick a random image from Google Images and hope for the best?

This chart totally contradicts the fact that gold is in a bubble. As you can see, the 1980 peak, adjusted in 2011's dollars (which have been devalued even more by now) is $2337. This means that today's prices have to reach $2300 for the price to "be a bubble" again. And remember, gold would have to rise to this price WITHOUT ANY DEVALUATION OF THE DOLLAR! That means no printing by Bernanke! So, Bernanke stops printing, gold rises to 2300, and then we have a bubble. The problem is, if Bernanke stops printing there would be an economic collapse!

Gold will be in a bubble when people start lining up in front of jewellers and bullion dealers to buy it, just like they were when the property bubble burst, and the same for when the stock bubble burst. With 1% of the world's wealth allocated to gold and silver, I think we are a good bit away from that, don't you? :pac:

sameoldname

DarkDusk wrote: »

I think we are a good bit away from that, don't you? :pac:

No, but I don't have any money invested in gold so it bothers me not.

DarkDusk

sameoldname wrote: »

No, but I don't have any money invested in gold so it bothers me not.

Me neither

hay_maker

how does one really know when gold is in overbought territory , its not like a stock where you can look at PE etc

DarkDusk

hay_maker wrote: »

how does one really know when gold is in overbought territory , its not like a stock where you can look at PE etc

Well, gold follows the expansion of the money supply very closely. It wouldn't make sense for gold to rise $400 tomorrow, but if Bernanke announced a $3 trillion bond-buying program for the next year, yes it would be very possible for it to rise that high.

hay_maker

DarkDusk wrote: »

Well, gold follows the expansion of the money supply very closely. It wouldn't make sense for gold to rise $400 tomorrow, but if Bernanke announced a $3 trillion bond-buying program for the next year, yes it would be very possible for it to rise that high.

what if he doesnt buy

DarkDusk

Put simply, economic collapse.

We would have had an economic collapse in 2008 if the central banks decided to not print any money and not to bail out the banks.
This proves how fake this recovery is.

I like to think of it as this. For a minute, think that when money is printed, the central banks need to cut down trees first...

So, we (central banks) started a boom by cutting down loads of trees and giving bits to a lot of people, to buy a lot of things. Then we suddenly stopped cutting trees, causing a bust, and then the people got sad - they wanted more wood. Then we decided to cut down exponentially even more trees, but this time we didn't give it to the people, we gave it to the banks, to keep it safe. But, if we stop giving wood to the banks, they'll also get sad, but also angry. So, we have to keep cutting down tress, or else everything comes falling down (pardon the pun).

newmug

So how do you buy physical gold? You cant just walk into a hardware and buy a block of it. How is it done?

DarkDusk

newmug wrote: »

So how do you buy physical gold? You cant just walk into a hardware and buy a block of it. How is it done?

Bullion Dealers in Ireland:
http://www.bulliondirect.ie/
http://www.irishgoldbullion.ie/

There is no VAT on gold, as it is seen as an investment metal. However, if you are buying silver, which is the more attractive option for most people, there is VAT, and we all know that the VAT is very high here.
You can buy from bullion dealers in Germany, which have the lower 7% VAT rate. Geiger Edelmetalle (https://www.geiger-edelmetalle.de/shop_content.php/language/en/coID/9) has dealt with many people in Ireland (inlcuding myself) and had no problems with VAT when importing etc. However they have a limit on what they can sell abroad, which they have reached. If you buy from them in January, that quota will be reset.

For people interested in gold/silver investing, stay away from bullion bars and buy the 1oz bullion coins, American Eagles and Canadian Maples being the most liquid. The reason being, just say you buy a 50 oz silver bar at $1800. If silver goes up in price, just say to $150 (around 450%), that bar would now be valued at around 10 grand. A silver bar priced at $10,000 would be very hard to sell to someone on the street, therefore not liquid. Coins are also harder to counterfeit and are trusted more.

EDIT:
Look at the silver forum for lots of info: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055514901

newmug

Cheers Dark Dusk, plenty of info there. Are these crowds trustworthy though? How does the buyer know that they're being sold the gold at the correct price? Also, how is the bullion actually transported to your house? And when you want to sell it, how do you actually go about doing that?

DarkDusk

Bullion Direct here in Ireland and Geiger are trustworthy. I don't know anything about Irish Gold Bullion, but I'm sure they're legit.

Look at the spot prices of gold and silver at kitco: http://www.kitco.com/market/ You can click on any of the metals' names to get a graph, click on that graph (the one with 3 colours, green is today's - look at top right corner for explanation) to get a graph which you can adjust time period etc etc.

Those prices are in dollars, here are the euro prices: http://www.kitco.com/market/euro_charts.html (They are just calculated by dividing the exchange rate e.g 1.29 into the dollar price)

The spot price is not the price of real physical gold/silver. Physical usually is 10% above that price for silver and 5-6% for gold (excluding VAT). Don't buy if the price is too much above that figure. Bullion is transported by the postal service, An Post, and is obviously insured and has discreet packaging.

You could sell to the Irish bullion dealers mentioned above, but the prices they offer are very bad imho, usually around spot price. You could sell on Ebay or Adverts.ie for the best return. There are people looking for silver on eBay and Adverts.ie for €6+ over spot, which is over 20% the spot price! These are people who don't have enough cash to buy from bullion dealers, who have a minimum purchase price normally. Most of the big sellers on Adverts.ie buy straight from dealers in Germany and make a nice profit straight-away, without the price having to go up.

You may find it difficult to find certain coins on the Geiger website, here's the links to the most common and liquid coins:
Gold Maple: https://www.geiger-edelmetalle.de/edelmetalle_info.php/info/p22_Maple-Leaf---Canada-1-oz-Gold.html
Silver Maple: https://www.geiger-edelmetalle.de/edelmetalle_info.php/info/p56_Maple-Leaf-Silber---Canada-1-oz.html
Silver Eagle: https://www.geiger-edelmetalle.de/edelmetalle_info.php/info/p1_silvereagle---USA-1-oz.html

You may ask what's the difference between Maples and Eagles. There's none really, but the Eagles are slightly more liquid. I also prefer the look and feel of the Eagles. The Maples are very shiny and tacky, but that's my opinion.

Feel free to PM me with any questions you may have, I'd be happy to help.

freeze4real

Did anyone buy gold today ? In a space of 1sec gold fell by $20 from 1739 or so to 1710 then to 1705.

SAC capital who were linked to insider trading also contributed to the sharp plunge as well.

Did anyone see this coming ?

DarkDusk

Most definitely market manipulation again.

But, if you look at the prices today, it proves that the market ALWAYS wins in the long term. This is also evident in manipulation of energy prices. While it may seem good for the homeowner when the prices are manipulated down, in the long term prices rise more than normal, having a very bad effect on the consumer. Manipulation cannot go on forever.

freeze4real

Gold has fallen into the 1686 region, if the downward continues I see a downtrend to 1675, then a retracement back to 1700+ but due to macro-economic stuff happening like QE, fiscal cliff you never know.

stackerman

Stop looking at the price, unless your looking to buy.

Medium to long term trend will be up and by a long way, thanks largely to

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/treasury-scarcity-to-grow-as-fed-buys-90-of-new-bonds.html

Which is replicated throughout the world

We are well past the Minsky moment, and there is no going back

JMHO

freeze4real

stackerman wrote: »

Stop looking at the price, unless your looking to buy.

Medium to long term trend will be up and by a long way, thanks largely to

I look at the price of gold as I trade gold daily/weekly, and my analysis is based always based on technical; analysis at least 70% of the time then the rest on fundamentals.

Gold is showing a ST bullish trend, with prices capable of moving in the region of 1625.

Roonbox

freeze4real wrote: »

I look at the price of gold as I trade gold daily/weekly, and my analysis is based always based on technical; analysis at least 70% of the time then the rest on fundamentals.

Gold is showing a ST bullish downtrend, with prices capable of moving in the region of 1625.

There is no such thing as a bullish downtrend.

Is your trading based on your technical analysis 'always' or '70%' of the time?

SyntonFenix

70% of the time, it works everytime