LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Wibbler

Gonzo wrote: »

We look to be on the edge of the cold air with most parts of Ireland staying mainly dry for the coming week with night frosts.

It constantly amazes me just how hard an edge that appears to be. Time after time since I started following weather on Boards, we've had cold march westwards from Europe only to come to a halt over the UK. One would expect more variety in the outcomes with the cold continuing westwards every now and again. The Atlantic flamethrower is persistent and precise.

Maybe next time, eh? :rolleyes:

maquiladora

Wibbler wrote: »

It constantly amazes me just how hard an edge that appears to be. Time after time since I started following weather on Boards, we've had cold march westwards from Europe only to come to a halt over the UK. One would expect more variety in the outcomes with the cold continuing westwards every now and again. The Atlantic flamethrower is persistent and precise.

Maybe next time, eh? :rolleyes:

In weak setups like this weekend its always going to very tough to get cold enough air this far west. Still possible at times though, depending on the track of lows coming down, they can pull colder air over us for a time as they pass. Thats why from run to run on the models you'll see the -8 air sometimes reaching us and sometimes not. Hard to forecast that very far into the future. What we really need is a proper Scandi high (Greenland high looks unlikely now) leading to a nice, strong easterly that will really push that cold air right over us.

snaps

Its looking cold from Wednesday though??

Oarrack Bama

snaps wrote: »

Its looking cold from Wednesday though??

After the 12z runs hopefully more clarity.

maquiladora

snaps wrote: »

Its looking cold from Wednesday though??

According to Ian Fergusson on NW just now, the UK Met Office are stressing to him that their confidence in the models is still at recording breaking low levels. I wouldn't look too far ahead at the moment.

Rougies

I see everyone is exhausted, no posts in nearly an hour..
Well 12z rolling out now so break over, get back to work!

red_bairn

Snow in Saudia Arabia.......

Saganist

Rougies wrote: »

I see everyone is exhausted, no posts in nearly an hour..
Well 12z rolling out now so break over, get back to work!

Is this the link for the new run rolling out ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

Rougies

Saganist wrote: »

Is this the link for the new run rolling out ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

Yup, that's the one.

Jaffusmaximus

There are 3 runs now to be keeping an eye on on, the GFS, ECM and UKMO, will they fall in line? The ECM was out on its own this morning so hopefully we will have them all singing from the same hymn sheet!

Saganist

Jaffusmaximus

What a mess, cold pushed back west! Seems like the cold now is just a carrot dangling just out of reach on every run! Need a proper block pronto!

budweiser6

First time posting here and a complete weather greenhorn however really into snow so I guess I fit in Finding all of your chat really entertaining and interesting by next winter I may have something constructive to post! At the moment I'm at 'a blue over ireland' = good for snow and green = too mild for snow!!!

Oarrack Bama

12z GFS is overall an upgrade and prolongs cold with further hints at undercutting.

Oarrack Bama

Superb:D

Rougies

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

What a mess, cold pushed back west! Seems like the cold now is just a carrot dangling just out of reach on every run! Need a proper block pronto!

Short term cold was always going to be marginal here anyway.

It's after 120hrs we should be looking at to get the proper sustained cold in, which is looking much better on this run out to 144h Although this will probably change on the 18z the way things are going lately :rolleyes:

maquiladora

^^ It's FI but that would be a possible significant snow event here at 138 hours.

Oarrack Bama

And this is what happens when you get undercutting - fronts coming up against the very cold air



In terms of cold and longevity this is a major upgrade for Ireland next week. Harsh frosts and very low night time minima. Flurries in the east.

Reckless Abandonment

At 144z looks good ... even the south might get a little white

Jaffusmaximus

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Superb:D

Those height to the north need to be sustained and fed into Greenland to build a more durable blocking set up. Still time though!!!

This foreplay is draining, where is the uber cold!

corksurfer2005

My memory might be a little blurry from weeks of model watching, but would I be correct in saying that there is a pattern of 12z and 0z upgrades for the past few days?!

Oarrack Bama

156 cold still going strong in a bitter southeasterly

Oarrack Bama

Ireland a lot colder for Monday then previous 00z on UKMO.

corksurfer2005

We need Maq's input!

Jaffusmaximus

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

156 cold still going strong in a bitter southeasterly

Problem123456

Looking a bit better for Ireland.
But trying to not get my hopes up

Oarrack Bama

UKMO very good as well. Maintains bitter cold with further prospects at 144hrs - and here is your heavy snow showers in the east on Wednesday:)

Jaffusmaximus

Embryonic heights developing over Greenland! This Ladies and Gentleman is what we need and its just such a pity its out in the FI!

snowstorm445

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Embryonic heights developing over Greenland! This Ladies and Gentleman is what we need and its just such a pity its out in the FI!

Yes some very strong heights. However as per usual the GFS ramps up Atlantic depressions making any Atlantic Ridging impossible.

Tentative signs though and certainly a good run one the whole.

Edit: Looks like I was wrong! Ridge forming in deep FI! Lol.

Rougies

Very good GFS and UKMO. Two hours time will be interesting, here we go again... weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
I need a new sick bag at this stage :pac: