LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Europe in the freezer at +240

Jaffusmaximus

t|nt|n wrote: »

Europe in the freezer at +240

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

I can't remember if they use the latest model on the forecast after the news but the website outlook should be updated with it around midnight.

I would be pretty sure though that they wouldn't base their TV forecast soley on one particular ECM run, but more a blend their own intuition and model trend. That is how it would appear to me anyways.

oterra

Looks like a reload deep in F1

Graupel

As I said the yesterday pointless looking past Wedensday at the moment and in that regard I'm very happy with the 0z ECM. Snow showers for the east on Wednesday increasingly likely now.

maquiladora

^^ Europe in the freezer? How about those -28 uppers over the US east coast?

Somehow I don't think that will happen.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I would be pretty sure though that they wouldn't base their TV forecast soley on one particular ECM run, but more a blend their own intuition and model trend. That is how it would appear to me anyways.

I think the animated charts they show as part of the outlook are directly from the ECM though. But yeah, the interpretation of those would be where the human input comes in.

patneve2

From viewing the models in the past few days I have come to the conclusion that the greatest obstacle in achieving a better cold flow to our shores is the Azores high and its linking up with the Scandi high, deflecting the core of the cold southwards into France/Spain/Italy (SE England in a prime position initially). Correct me if I'm wrong.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

I think the animated charts they show as part of the outlook are directly from the ECM though. But yeah, the interpretation of those would be where the human input comes in.

Yep, I think though that that even any animated charts they show are really only for demonstration/decorative purposes and to serve as a brief visual backdrop to their wider thinking. Makes you wonder though why the met tend to go with the 00z run as a rule. Perhaps they trust this output more?

Oarrack Bama

For the moment Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday to watch for the east. Snow showers more likely now and given ground temperatures at that stage settling snow at low levels would be very likely. One to watch.

After that we have more confusion and it's pointless going in to detail but marginally i'd say most likely high pressure ends up over us for the end of the week. Still very cold at night with severe ice and frost but by day not quite as cold IF that happens. Like I say huge uncertainty after Wednesday. For the moment snow freaks in the east can be reasonably satisfied.

The west needs a GFS op run scenario to play out with undercutting of cold air from the west.

Menas

Been lurking here all week and I just want to say "Wooo Hoooo"

Gonzo

over the past week it must be fun for people watching the weather on RTE who do not follow weather forums online. Every second day RTE are showing cold and wintry conditions for next week and it gets set back to mild and wet again the following day etc.

123 LC

any chance of snow in any part of ireland accept the east and north east??

downwiththatsor

123 LC wrote: »

any chance of snow in any part of ireland accept the east and north east??

Not in the short term, depends on what happens from Wed, models will tell eventually.

rickdangerouss

Simon, going for cold for UK with Some snow, not allot for Ireland. He thinks the GEM model is the strongest out of the lot.

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

80% conference level for snow on the hills for Ireland, not allot and did a week forecast.

Look at this link to find out how much cold it needed for snow. sleet at most for next week for Ireland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/how-is-snow-formed

Pangea

Wouldnt be surprised to see an odd flake here this weekend going by met.ies forecast

Musicman2000

Tuesday and wednesday look like the best day for some of the white stuff, especially along the east and south east.

Slashermcguirk

I wouldnt be put off by met eireann website, they change their outlook every day. A couple of days ago they were saying substantial snowfall for parts of Ireland. They will no doubt change their mind tomorrow again

icesnowfrost

How is the north east looking for snow

Deank

123 LC wrote: »

any chance of snow in any part of ireland accept the east and north east??

None at the moment sorry, 10 days time that may be very, very different.:D

DOCARCH

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The bottom line is that we are looking at nothing extraordinary for the foreseeable, either for the UK or Ireland ....

+1 to this. I think people need to bear this in mind.

cherryghost

Deank wrote: »

None at the moment sorry, 10 days time that may be very, very different.:D

I disagree with this. There is snow potential for the south and southwest during the same timeframe that the east has potential wintry showers. Everything's still chop and change but it's been evident for the last 3 runs now.

Deank

cherryghost wrote: »

I disagree with this. There is snow potential for the south and southwest during the same timeframe that the east has potential wintry showers. Everything's still chop and change but it's been evident for the last 3 runs now.

God dam it we need crystal balls around here, it all changes far to quickly:p

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The bottom line is that we are looking at nothing extraordinary for the foreseeable, either for the UK or Ireland but the way it has been advertised the last week or 2 by UK forecasters you'd swear something epic was on the way.

Oh but it is D.E., it is* ....




* This statement may or may not be true. Moods may fall as well as rise.

maquiladora

Any predictions on what we'll see on the 18Z GFS? I'm thinking it will be pretty similar to the 12Z until 120. After that, who knows what. Maybe a bit of FIcandy? (Yes, I just made that up. You're welcome)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Any predictions on what we'll see on the 18Z GFS? I'm thinking it will be pretty similar to the 12Z until 120. After that, who knows what. Maybe a bit of FIcandy? (Yes, I just made that up. You're welcome)

A proper east beast in FI !

sunbabe08

"i'm afraid we're in for a cold wintry spell- Evelyn


um, no need to be afraid, we don't mind, this is the way winter is supposed to be

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

A proper east beast in FI !

East beast west?

Pangea

-5.1 °C last night in Katesbridge aka the freezer :eek:

davidsr20

Fairly quiet on winter tread along with this tread, I think we're at nothing hoping for snow it's very unlikely going by mt,s weather forecasts , maybe we should go by his forecasts rather than torment ourselves.