LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

corksurfer2005

I've got a gut feeling that the ECM and GFS 0z's are going to be nice!

maquiladora

Blocking is actually a little bit stronger on this run so far. Different orientation too. No downgrade in the bigger picture. We're going to have to be patient if we're looking for something 'interesting' though.

pauldry

There will be sleet here tomorrow by the looks of it snow in some northern locations. That's a start

eskimocat

nbar12 wrote: »

I have an exam on monday, im going to fail and if i do, i've just waited 4 years for nothing, please tell me there'll be 20 ft of snow falling on sunday night

I was wishing for the same last Sunday night as I had an exam on the Monday.... despite the charts promising all sorts of lovely wintry precipitation, all it did was rain, and boy did it rain.... It rained for the 3 hour journey to the exam and for the entire journey back!! So my friend.... study.... study study... cause the charts are too busy enjoying their flip flops:cool: Best of luck.

Mr Cumulonimbus

I'm afraid General Winter's arsenal is misfunctioning badly at the moment.....

maquiladora

Huge amount of precip to our west at 168 hours. Can you imagine if conditions were the right side of marginal?

Rougies

Downgrade for midweek and in FI on this run. But the general trend is still there for holding on to cold throughout, albeit on a knife edge!

Trotter

Its like we're all sitting around a tinfoil bottle cap waiting for lightening to hit it.

aurora 527

Trotter wrote: »

Its like we're all sitting around a tinfoil bottle cap waiting for lightening to hit it.

:D:D

corksurfer2005

Trotter wrote: »

Its like we're all sitting around a tinfoil bottle cap waiting for lightening to hit it.

I don't think anybody has ever summed up model watching so well! :pac:

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Huge amount of precip to our west at 168 hours. Can you imagine if conditions were the right side of marginal?

A hell of a lot! Uppers in the east may help too.

Deep Easterly

I think this chart from the GFS 18z is a good representation of the weather pattern around Ireland this winter thus far



in other words, a bit pile of sh....

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Downgrade for midweek and in FI on this run. But the general trend is still there for holding on to cold throughout, albeit on a knife edge!

It was only a few runs ago that the GFS was constantly blasting southwesteries into us and going zonal. Now we have it showing high pressure moving to our north with a monster Atantic low held at bay well into FI. I wouldn't worry about what the 850 temps are for us at that stage when they are changing even 48 hours out as it is. Loads of potential ahead as long as this theme continues!

DeVore

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think this chart from the GFS 18z is a good representation of the weather pattern around Ireland this winter thus far



in other words, a bit pile of sh....

That rather depends if you have a dog who needs walking every morning

T.

Joe Public

What's it gonna be?

Joe Public

What should I wear?

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

It was only a few runs ago that the GFS was constantly blasting southwesteries into us and going zonal. Now we have it showing high pressure moving to our north with a monster Atantic low held at bay well into FI. I wouldn't worry about what the 850 temps are for us at that stage when they are changing even 48 hours out as it is. Loads of potential ahead as long as this theme continues!

Absolutely. The trends are looking much better today across all models.

I was comparing the 18z with the 12z GFS in terms of knife edge marginality, with the 18z looking less favorable midweek, which could easily swing back in our favour on the 00z runs.

All in all a good and very interesting day's model watching with good results

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think this chart from the GFS 18z is a good representation of the weather pattern around Ireland this winter thus far

Been meaning to ask you D.E., do you have a favourite chart from the archives of you'd something you'd like to see this winter? Something from a winter before your time?

omicron

maquiladora wrote: »

Been meaning to ask you D.E., do you have a favourite chart from the archives of you'd something you'd like to see this winter? Something from a winter before your time?

My one:



Although tbh I don't think I'd like to see it, bit too extreme!

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Been meaning to ask you D.E., do you have a favourite chart from the archives of you'd something you'd like to see this winter? Something from a winter before your time?

I don't get out of bed for anything less than this :cool:



An Incredibly dry, brisk and wholly invigorating easterly

Any fave patterns yourself?

pistolpetes11

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I don't get out of bed for anything less than this :cool:



An Incredibly dry, brisk and wholly invigorating easterly

Any fave patterns yourself?

Thats a thing of beauty , any reports on what type of conditions it produced ?

Rebelbrowser

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Thats a thing of beauty , any reports on what type of conditions it produced ?

No snow I think. 11 months later a diff story......

Deep Easterly

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Thats a thing of beauty , any reports on what type of conditions it produced ?

Nothing spectacular in terms of temperature though monthly mean temps for Feb 86 as a whole finished near 0.0c in some inland parts. Feb 86 was a very easterly month, with a few snow flurries at times in the east but I think one of the driest months on record in the west. I have stats done up somewhere for this month, somewhere! will root them out.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The SSW hasn't filtered into the models yet I believe, probably won't until the 15th I thought.

Am I reading it right ?

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Any fave patterns yourself?

Well I know you won't like this! It actually has a bit of a resemblance to something... (!).

Probably one of if not the most severe snowfalls recorded in the south of Ireland. Not something I would actually wish on the people who would be disrupted by it, but if something like it were to happen again it would be a remarkable weather event to witness.

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

The SSW hasn't filtered into the models yet I believe, probably won't until the 15th I thought.

Am I reading it right ?

I don't fully understand some of the strat stuff myself, but GP posted this in the strat thread on netweather today.

That's a good match on the initial 'outrider' +ve GPH anomaly and the first main downwell centred on 15th January.

Based on this, second phase to impact around 25th-28th January.

Pangea

-2 here with precipitation coming in from the nw later, surely Il get snow for a wee while tonight

Min

davidsr20 wrote: »

Fairly quiet on winter tread along with this tread, I think we're at nothing hoping for snow it's very unlikely going by mt,s weather forecasts , maybe we should go by his forecasts rather than torment ourselves.

Quality nor quantity is what we are going for in the other thread :P

I am sure I will see snow during the next few days.

aboyro

maquiladora wrote: »

Well I know you won't like this! It actually has a bit of a resemblance to something... (!).

Probably one of if not the most severe snowfalls recorded in the south of Ireland. Not something I would actually wish on the people who would be disrupted by it, but if something like it were to happen again it would be a remarkable weather event to witness.

very similar looking system lining up for sometime late next week too by the looks of it.

pistolpetes11

Always thought the Chinese had the best model myself :eek: