LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Not something I would actually wish on the people who would be disrupted by it, but if something like it were to happen again it would be a remarkable weather event to witness.

Wouldn't say no that chart myself! Just reading about the event there on met.ie. spectacular stuff. There is something really ominous about an Atlantic front coming up against real continental flow like that, no matter what the season, they have a real air of danger, often enhanced by the usually slower and gradually pace they have as they encroach. Sort of hard to explain in words.

whitebriar

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Nothing spectacular in terms of temperature though monthly mean temps for Feb 86 as a whole finished near 0.0c in some inland parts. Feb 86 was a very easterly month, with a few snow flurries at times in the east but I think one of the driest months on record in the west. I have stats done up somewhere for this month, somewhere! will root them out.

I was in Ucd at the time and recall a fair bit of snow there.There was a fair bit of streamer activity over south Dublin and Wicklow.
The midnight snow ball fights Post pub and sledging in our street near Dundrum were Awesome craic.
Sigh..those were the days.7 of us house sharing.

Fluffycloud

:DRoll on snow..... Addicted to this thread. I want snow.

whitebriar

Fluffycloud wrote: »

:DRoll on snow..... Addicted to this thread. I want snow.

I saw a thrush,in the garden here today and it was the fattest bird I've seen in a long time,it was practically obese.
A real sign of something coming if you ask me?

Nabber

whitebriar wrote: »

I saw a thrush,in the garden here today and it was the fattest bird I've seen in a long time,it was practically obese.
A real sign of something coming if you ask me?

Sign of a heart attack for that bird.

BLIZZARD7

Anyone up?

cherryghost

06Z run not much different so far.

This really feels like rinse repeat of about 4/5 days ago. The Jet Stream in 06Z looks worrying at 120hrs also.

Rougies

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Anyone up?

Not many. I'm only up becuase I forgot to go to go asleep

Upgrade medium term and looking good for the rest of the run into FI

John.Icy

cherryghost wrote: »

06Z run not much different so far.

This really feels like rinse repeat of about 4/5 days ago. The Jet Stream in 06Z looks worrying at 120hrs also.

Was the 0z that bad you're already on the 6z?

BLIZZARD7

Nice undercut coming I feel




Dan

cherryghost

John.Icy wrote: »

Was the 0z that bad you're already on the 6z?

Sorry, half asleep here

cherryghost

We're marginally on the wrong side at 120-150hrs I feel. Could swing either way though.

Greenland high is pretty much gone.

Rougies

Snowmaggedon potential again after 120hrs on this run.

cherryghost

It's extremely marginal though in that scenario. We just need a bit of luck

Rougies

cherryghost wrote: »

It's extremely marginal though in that scenario. We just need a bit of luck

The most epic of snowfalls usually occur just the right side of marginal. Yeah we need some luck in a scenario like that.

Trends are good and potential is still there which is the main thing

cherryghost

Rougies wrote: »

The most epic of snowfalls usually occur just the right side of marginal. Yeah we need some luck in a scenario like that.

Trends are good and potential is there which is the main thing. Worth staying up for

Definitely worth staying up for, I agree. It looks like a winter wonderland for the UK after 144. The Jet Stream has at the point diverted for an undercut again thank christ. It looked for a moment as though the tables were to swing once more.

Interesting so far.

Greenland high reappearing again out past 180

BLIZZARD7

UKMO has us in -8's at +72hrs, -6c/-7c at 36hrs

Brilliant so far!




Dan

cherryghost

GFS so so. Looks status quo in the short run, long run we're still stuck in the middle of things, who knows how that turns out

UKMO prospects at 72hrs onwards look great!

GEM still rolling out and it looks pretty poor at the same timeframe.

Eastcoastryan

cherryghost wrote: »

GFS so so. Looks status quo in the short run, long run we're still stuck in the middle of things, who knows how that turns out

UKMO prospects at 72hrs onwards look great!

GEM still rolling out and it looks pretty poor at the same timeframe.

My head is melted with all this! It's going to be interesting to see how it pans out though. It looks like the models are different at 48 Hours. The UKMO looks good for us midweek, surely at that timeframe its gotta be almost certain no?

cherryghost

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

My head is melted with all this! It's going to be interesting to see how it pans out though. It looks like the models are different at 48 Hours. The UKMO looks good for us midweek, surely at that timeframe its gotta be almost certain no?

You'd say that but considering GEM is showing it as marginal and GFS is split too, REALLY looking forward to seeing what the ECM delivers.

Smidge

cherryghost wrote: »

You'd say that but considering GEM is showing it as marginal and GFS is split too, REALLY looking forward to seeing what the ECM delivers.

Is the GFS not as trusted as the ECM?

cherryghost

Smidge wrote: »

Is the GFS not as trusted as the ECM?

It's about 50-50 really. That's always the problem :P

ECM doesn't look great this morning in the short term. Either way, it looks to me as that GFS, ECM, UKMO and GEM are all playing different ballgames from about 72 hrs onwards. Fantastic.

maquiladora

0Z GEM is fantastic. Out in FI it manages to undercut that massive Atlantic low sending the high up to Greenland. Thats a trend I'd like to see the others follow.

UKMO looks good too. GFS and ECM both look messy to me.

Though it has to be said ECM has made steps towards the other models.

Eastcoastryan

cherryghost wrote: »

It's about 50-50 really. That's always the problem :P

ECM doesn't look great this morning in the short term. Either way, it looks to me as that GFS, ECM, UKMO and GEM are all playing different ballgames from about 72 hrs onwards. Fantastic.

ECM doesn't look as good as yesterdays run! Hopefully UKMO are on to something!!

Eastcoastryan

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GEM is fantastic. Out in FI it manages to undercut that massive Atlantic low sending the high up to Greenland. Thats a trend I'd like to see the others follow.

UKMO looks good too. GFS and ECM both look messy to me.

Though it has to be said ECM has made steps towards the other models.

Latest Met Eireann update sounds better for midweek!


Tuesday will be a bright and showery day, especially over Ulster and north-Leinster. It will be a cold day with highest temperatures of 4 to 8 degrees and northwesterly winds. From Wednesday onwards the weather stays mainly dry but it turns colder as the winds swing to a northeasterly direction with highest daytime temperatures of 2 to 4 degrees and severe frost at night. And along the coastal counties of Leinster the northeasterly winds will bring wintry showers off the Irish Sea with a likelihood of falls of snow of several centimetres from these showers. Otherwise the mid-week days will be bright and sunny and the nights clear. Over next weekend there is a slight rise in temperatures as cloud increases over the country, with outbreaks of rain in most places.

maquiladora

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Latest Met Eireann update sounds better for midweek!


Tuesday will be a bright and showery day, especially over Ulster and north-Leinster. It will be a cold day with highest temperatures of 4 to 8 degrees and northwesterly winds. From Wednesday onwards the weather stays mainly dry but it turns colder as the winds swing to a northeasterly direction with highest daytime temperatures of 2 to 4 degrees and severe frost at night. And along the coastal counties of Leinster the northeasterly winds will bring wintry showers off the Irish Sea with a likelihood of falls of snow of several centimetres from these showers. Otherwise the mid-week days will be bright and sunny and the nights clear. Over next weekend there is a slight rise in temperatures as cloud increases over the country, with outbreaks of rain in most places.

Looks like that was written before the latest ECM came out though. ECM downgrades that potential again, but UKMO is good so maybe it will happen anyway. Wednesday isnt that far out though so maybe they are using different models for that part.

whitebriar

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like that was written before the latest ECM came out though. ECM downgrades that potential again, but UKMO is good so maybe it will happen anyway. Wednesday isnt that far out though so maybe they are using different models for that part.

The eagle on radio one just went to wenesday just now saying colder weather moving in from Britain will bring snow showers to the Leinster coast,do ya know,this may auger well for a ukmo type resolution if for example the eagle's opinion is midweek onwards he's waiting for more runs to decide what happens next
He's a very intuitive forecaster,always was.

oterra

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GEM is fantastic. Out in FI it manages to undercut that massive Atlantic low sending the high up to Greenland. Thats a trend I'd like to see the others follow.

UKMO looks good too. GFS and ECM both look messy to me.

Though it has to be said ECM has made steps towards the other models.

Do you rate the GEM after 2-3 days?

maquiladora

oterra wrote: »

Do you rate the GEM after 2-3 days?

Well its one of the main global models. M.T. uses it a fair bit I think. At this stage the models in general have been all over the place so it has as good a chance as any.

Trotter

Eyes down for the 06 GFS!