LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora · 13-01-2013 1:20pm

nacho libre wrote: »

i think it's inevitable now we will see a return of the atlantic for at least a few days late next week- there is just too much energy in the Canadian piece of the vortex for systems not to make it far enough across to erode heights to the north, we just have to hope the progged second stratospheric warming in this region squeezes the life out of the vortex in this region, which could then enable heights to build over Greenland.

good to see some people got a bit of snow today anyway . hopefully there will be more before the likely change late next week.

I think its impossible to call yet. GEM and UKMO send the energy south. GFS has been flipflopping between both options. The ECM ensembles seem to be split roughly 50/50.

If we see a trend emerge on the 12Z runs today then you might have a better idea. Models are useless at the moment beyond 72 hours with such low consensus, run to run variation and ensemble scatter.

Knowing our luck though....

maquiladora · 13-01-2013 1:24pm

compsys wrote: »

What approximately are the 850 temps at the moment do you know?

Around -3.

fontenoy7 · 13-01-2013 1:34pm

Snowing for ten minutes in Castleknock D. 15 earlier on but has turned back to rain and back to sleet in the past few minutes. It seems that there will be heavy snow showers and some accumulations in the Dublin/Wicklow areas on Tuesday evening and Wednesday though

acassells80 · 13-01-2013 1:35pm

Raining in south Dublin

Cionád · 13-01-2013 1:37pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Dew points are rising above 0, thats why its turning to rain.

Is there any way of knowing what the DP's might be come Tues/Wed ?

acassells80 · 13-01-2013 1:39pm

Temps dropping here but still just rain

BLIZZARD7 · 13-01-2013 1:42pm

acassells80 wrote: »

Temps dropping here but still just rain

Where in South Dub/What temp?

Dan

aurora 527 · 13-01-2013 1:42pm

Solyad wrote: »

Lashing it down in Clonsilla. Huge flakes.
Theres a kid on the road gone nuts shouting "ITS SNOWING, ITS SNOWING"

A future boardsie in the making

acassells80 · 13-01-2013 1:43pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Where in South Dub/What temp?

Dan

Blackrock was 3c now 2c according to iPhone App

whitebriar · 13-01-2013 1:54pm

This is your 2 min warning.
The lovely Evelyn is about to do the.farming forecast on rte one

maquiladora · 13-01-2013 1:55pm

Cionád wrote: »

Is there any way of knowing what the DP's might be come Tues/Wed ?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Keep in mind though thats just one model, other models look better for midweek, and there are changes happening everyday on them. No point checking until maybe a day before.

Also with showers you'd want colder 850 temps (around -7) than with frontal stuff.

BLIZZARD7 · 13-01-2013 1:56pm

acassells80 wrote: »

Blackrock was 3c now 2c according to iPhone App

Dont get too excited if you're wanting snow today- temp is 4.0C and DP is 1C and rising in Clonskeagh.

Dan

ZX7R · 13-01-2013 1:58pm

Interesting short forecast video from Simon keeling today ,he reckons southern Ireland are going to get a blast of heavy snow on Saturday as mild air pushes in :cool:. www.wearherweb.net

Pangea · 13-01-2013 2:01pm

Interesting forecast from Evelyn stressing the uncertainty.
ATLANTIC VS BALTIC on the screen. Let the battle commence.

acassells80 · 13-01-2013 2:01pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Dont get too excited if you're wanting snow today- temp is 4.0C and DP is 1C and rising in Clonskeagh.

Dan

Many negatives of living by the sea! No snow! ðŸ˜Š

whitebriar · 13-01-2013 2:02pm

Very well presented as usual by Evelyn!
Basically anything can happen this week.

nacho libre · 13-01-2013 2:04pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I think its impossible to call yet. GEM and UKMO send the energy south. GFS has been flipflopping between both options. The ECM ensembles seem to be split roughly 50/50.

If we see a trend emerge on the 12Z runs today then you might have a better idea. Models are useless at the moment beyond 72 hours with such low consensus, run to run variation and ensemble scatter.

Knowing our luck though....

while the models have been flip-flopping there is a clear trend on the h-500 anomaly, for a daughter vortex to reside in canada, without any real trend for height rises to our north west., it's difficult to see in this scenario how systems will not make it across the atlantic. relying on heights to the north east to hold off this attack is fraught with danger. remember the gfs should have a better handle on events off the north east coast of America, which, as we all know greatly effects what happens here. it maybe that the next gfs run will trend towards the gem, ukmo. we can but hope:)

Musicman2000 · 13-01-2013 2:04pm

Pangea wrote: »

Interesting forecast from Evelyn stressing the uncertainty.
ATLANTIC VS BALTIC on the screen. Let the battle commence.

Good forecast from Evelyn, sounds like some where could get buried

Eastcoastryan · 13-01-2013 2:05pm

whitebriar wrote: »

Very well presented as usual by Evelyn!
Basically anything can happen this week.

Quick Question... Are these the type of Battleground situations that gave us big snowfalls in the past or does it look more marginal?

nacho libre · 13-01-2013 2:06pm

Pangea wrote: »

Interesting forecast from Evelyn stressing the uncertainty.
ATLANTIC VS BALTIC on the screen. Let the battle commence.

sound interesting. i must watch it online. i miss her forecasts, and of course the smile she gives at the end of the forecast, which is solely directed at me:p

maquiladora · 13-01-2013 2:14pm

nacho libre wrote: »

while the models have been flip-flopping there is a clear trend on the h-500 anomaly, for a daughter vortex to reside in canada, without any real trend for height rises to our north west., it's difficult to see in this scenario how systems will not make it across the atlantic. relying on heights to the north east to hold off this attack is fraught with danger. remember the gfs should have a better handle on events off the north east coast of America, which, as we all know greatly effects what happens here. it maybe that the next gfs run will trend towards the gem, ukmo. we can but hope:)

I don't disagree. I think its 50/50 now. I seem to remember the anomaly charts back in December looked good for that cold spell which then never happened, they aren't flawless.

kakee · 13-01-2013 2:17pm

Good forecast from Evelyn, sounds like some where could get buried

Please let it be Tipp Town!! Please let it be Tipp Town.

cyclops999 · 13-01-2013 2:19pm

Awareness level Yellow on Meteoalarm for Munster & Leinster "icy patches with rain, sleet and snow at first"

carltonleon · 13-01-2013 2:20pm

Nothing but rain in Swords:mad::(

eskimocat · 13-01-2013 2:20pm

Got all excited there for 0.3 seconds...it hailed!!! YUP little white balls fell from the sky

... I went to quickly log on to report this wonderful event, but it stopped before I even manged to get my password in... so I have decided that it was just a little amuse bouche to stop me flipping out! :pac: Waiting patiently now for the chef in the sky to deliever the goods....:cool:

( http://wordsmith.org/words/amuse-bouche.html)

Min · 13-01-2013 2:20pm

I think Met Eireann do view these threads and have taken into account some things, for example before they were in a hurry to put out forecasts beyond the reliable time range in a period of uncertain weather, they are making it clearer how uncertain things are, which is good as I hate it when they try and please with a definitive forecast when there is uncertainty.
So loved how Evelyn gave the forecast and made it clear, that nothing is certain for this week with Ireland being squeezed with the Atlantic wanting to push in and the easterly push wanting to come for the Gathering too :P

whitebriar · 13-01-2013 2:41pm

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Quick Question... Are these the type of Battleground situations that gave us big snowfalls in the past or does it look more marginal?

Marginal Ryan as per what Nacho posted above unfortunately.
Jan 1982's blizzard was a low and front stalled and trapped in an already well established very cold east flow.
In jan or feb 85 iirc fronts came in after a week of eastern streamers s and fell as snow in Dublin and Wicklow, but mild followed.

I don't like battle grounds unless an Easterly or Northeasterly is very eell established as the Atlantic will always win out eventually.
In my lifetime I've seen maybe 3 or 4 snowy battlegrounds happen but lots more snowy streamer events.
Thats why I prefer the latter in the East, they deliver consistently.
Different story in the west.

sunbabe08 · 13-01-2013 2:54pm

leahyl wrote: »

Sunny in Cork!!! Oh wait ye're talking about snow? No, it's not snowing....

apparently we're getting snow tonight. how true that is, we'll have to wait a see

sunbabe08 · 13-01-2013 2:57pm

eskimocat wrote: »

Got all excited there for 0.3 seconds...it hailed!!! YUP little white balls fell from the sky ... I went to quickly log on to report this wonderful event, but it stopped before I even manged to get my password in... so I have decided that it was just a little amuse bouche to stop me flipping out! :pac: Waiting patiently now for the chef in the sky to deliever the goods....:cool:

( http://wordsmith.org/words/amuse-bouche.html)

moral of the story, never log out of boards.

WIZE · 13-01-2013 3:00pm

Light snow in Celbridge Kildare this morning. only for 5 min

LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705