LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Rougies

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Anyone have a link to the mentioned forecast by Evelyn?

It's not up yet, but should be here within the next hour or so.

BluesBerry

snowed in kildare about 2hrs ago :pac:

davidsr20

Mt is still talking about a more severe cold event in February , he talks about it a lot over the last two months, how come people say u can't look past 72-96 hours but yet he seems really confident!
I hope this pulls off

Godge

davidsr20 wrote: »

Mt is still talking about a more severe cold event in February , he talks about it a lot over the last two months, how come people say u can't look past 72-96 hours but yet he seems really confident!
I hope this pulls off

Even though he talks about it a lot, it may not happen for us.

Last January/February he thought the same but the cold spell never got past England. His winter forecast last year was out by a couple of hundred miles. That is actually a brilliant result, because being out by a couple of hundred miles, a few days or a few degrees but getting the general trend right in a forecast given several months previously was really good.

Similarly, MT has been forecasting a cold spell at the end of January/into February for several months. If it is late by a couple of weeks it won't be epic or if the cold only reaches as far east as London, it won't be epic for us but it may still mean his forecast was generally correct.

Like anything the further away you are from it, the harder it gets to see the details. It actually amazes me sometimes how accurate his long-range forecasting is as he picks out the better options from several fantasy island choices.

Spindle

Pangea wrote: »

Interesting forecast from Evelyn stressing the uncertainty.
ATLANTIC VS BALTIC on the screen. Let the battle commence.

I have become obsessed looking for battle ground situations in the models as this is where Cork the southwest and west get the best snow. Typically as well this is where the heaviest snow falls in Ireland will come from as well. Plus we can gloat as we have more snow than the east coast

The only trend that they are showing is that there will be cold in around Ireland, with the Atlantic not far off trying to push back the cold. Which side we fall on means either lots of snow or just cold rain. I think we will be now casting from mid-week on.

I get a feeling that we might see something this year, with the way the models are you might as well be looking at tea leaves, which is where I found the forecast of an epic blizzard.

Rougies

Rougies wrote: »

It's not up yet, but should be here within the next hour or so.

It;s not updating on that page, so here's Evelyn's Farming Forecast from today

http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/10102126/

Kippure

BBC WEATHER - MATT TAYLOR @ 12:21 - WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgCDxN1sqKM

rc28

That was a very good and informative forecast from Evelyn, she was right to emphasise the uncertainty as much as she did - far wiser than basically choosing one option over another (which is what the Met have been doing up to now).

davidsr20

What is everyone's fascination with Evelyn really? She smiles stutters and hates the snow word!

red_bairn

Rougies wrote: »

It's not up yet, but should be here within the next hour or so.

I love the way they have a question mark beside "This week"

fontenoy7

Why is that the East and particularly Dublin and Wicklow and (north-east) get buried in snow when the west and south generally get nothing??? Two years ago Dublin had lying snow for about three weeks and then year before that as well :mad::mad:

rc28

davidsr20 wrote: »

What is everyone's fascination with Evelyn really? She smiles stutters and hates the snow word!

Because she's a national treasure :P

And no she doesn't stutter, nor does she have a problem with the word snow - are you confusing her with Gerry Murphy by any chance? :pac:

MUSEIST

davidsr20 wrote: »

What is everyone's fascination with Evelyn really? She smiles stutters and hates the snow word!

What, she is the queen of rampers. O hail mighty evelyn

davidsr20

Kippure wrote: »

BBC WEATHER - MATT TAYLOR @ 12:21 - WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgCDxN1sqKM

Very professional , we don't see that here lol

rc28

fontenoy7 wrote: »

Why is that the East and particularly Dublin and Wicklow and (north-east) get buried in snow when the west and south generally get nothing??? Two years ago Dublin had lying snow for about three weeks and then year before that as well :mad::mad:

It's not true to say those areas generally get more snow. The last two cold spells (January and Nov-Dec 2010) just happened to bring north easterly winds. When cold air passes over the relatively warm Irish sea that creates convective showers - during those spells the showers fell as snow because the air was cold enough. The north easterly winds diverted those showers onto the east coast. I live in Meath so we also did very well out of those cold snaps, as did most places in Leinster.

The northwest (Donegal) usually does very well snow-wise from northerly winds. Mayo and Galway (and sometimes west Kerry too) can also get plenty of snow in a northwesterly airstream. The southwest/Munster unfortunately doesn't tend to do that well in either of the above set ups but they can get very large snowfalls if an organised Atlantic weather front meets very cold air over Ireland. That is a very rare situation because usually the Atlantic just barrels through with the mild air winning out.

Deep Easterly

Rougies wrote: »

It;s not updating on that page, so here's Evelyn's Farming Forecast from today

http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/10102126/

A very good forecast for sure. Only issue I would have is that she used an Occluded front to represent the Polar front. A large scale occlusion is actually a front that has been separated from the polar front and more representative of the boundary between two different polar air masses rather than between a polar and tropical air mass. OK, I'll stop now... :pac:

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A very good forecast for sure. Only issue I would have is that she used an Occluded front to represent the Polar front. A large scale occlusion is actually a front that has been separated from the polar front and more representative of the boundary between two different polar air masses rather than between a polar and tropical air mass. OK, I'll stop now... :pac:

:P

fontenoy7

I moved up to Dublin in 2007. It snowed very heavily in 2008, 2009, 2010 (a dusting in 2011/12). I am originally from Killarney and I have never seen snow stick there really.. a few hours perhaps. In West Dublin there was think snow on the ground in 2008 for at least a week, a about two or three weeks in 2009 and a huge amount in November and at Christmas 2010 which lasted for three weeks. I remember it being -12 one morning in Blanchardstowwn. There may be snowfalls higher up in the mountains of Kerry ok but nothing like this a at ground level...not in the west or south-west at any rate but you are right probably in Donegal. I should also have mentionedf Kildare, Meath and parts of north wexford as well.
When the Est wind blows it just seems to bring a lot of 'meaningful' snow to that part of the country that is all.:):):)

mallards

Nice drop of snow this morning in East Tyrone. Very big flakes at one stage. Stopped around ten o'clock but the back mountain is still covered and probably will stick until tomorrow. Bit milder now though.

Shiny

So next week this thread is going to be a week of:


:pac:

BEASTERLY

Just looking at the charts there now. So now the tues/wednesday potential has dissapeared? Christ can nothing go our way for once?

maquiladora

Kippure

Can anyone confirm if its snowing in Lusk, as in a light shower?

seven_eleven

The media keep hyping the shíte out of this, yet I know for a fact nothing is going to happen. Its quite annoying.

Or am I mistaken?

gbee

Kippure wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if its snowing in Lusk, as in a light shower?

Nothing on radar, nothing at all.

Kippure

gbee wrote: »

Nothing on radar, nothing at all.

A Mate out there said it was, True nothing on the radar

gbee

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Just looking at the charts there now. So now the tues/wednesday potential has dissapeared? Christ can nothing go our way for once?

Min

So far looks even better for the west in it's battle with the east.

Pangea

Min wrote: »

So far looks even better for the west in it's battle with the east.

better for what?

mickger844posts

GFS 12z similar to 6z so far so not good.