LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Rougies

Min wrote: »

So far looks even better for the west in it's battle with the east.

Short term yes, but the east looks to be fighting back stronger at 66h. Lets wait and see.

Slashermcguirk

Met eireann seem to think snow for the east midweek, here is hoping. Glad to hear some saw snow today when it wasn't even expected

Eastcoastryan

mickger844posts wrote: »

GFS 12z similar to 6z so far so not good.

Looks better to me at 66?

Rougies

Upgraded snow potential for Wednesday on this run. Still marginal as feck though.

Mr Cumulonimbus

At +66. A fight seems on.

Cionád

Looks decent?

Musicman2000

Looks a lot better, the atlantic comes up against the cold block doesn't even get to the uk.

maquiladora

Well, it's not worse than the 06Z, but not a dramatic improvement either. So far. I'm almost more worried about seeing the UKMO/GEM backing down.

snowstorm445

Cionád wrote: »

Looks decent?

No snow for the south.

Harps

Not much point stressing over every run for the next few days, you're always going to get small tweaks from run to run and with a battleground setup it'll come down to a nowcast for any snow. Safe enough to say we wont see anything more than rain in the west, the east still looks to have a slim chance though I'd be surprised if it comes off. Even with no snow, it should be an interesting event to watch anyway with the front stalling over the country and being pushed back west

Eastcoastryan

maquiladora wrote: »

Well, it's not worse than the 06Z, but not a dramatic improvement either. So far. I'm almost more worried about seeing the UKMO/GEM backing down.

UKMO not looking good to me! Looks similar to GFS

Min

Pangea wrote: »

better for what?

I'm just viewing it as a sport, Atlantic in the west corner verus the cold in the east corner.
Upto 120hrs, advantage west.

In the more unreliable timreframe, the east could try and fight back!!!

Min

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Looks a lot better, the atlantic comes up against the cold block doesn't even get to the uk.

I see a darker pinky red dot over my house in that :pac:

fontenoy7

Really cold and foggy in West Dublin at the moment. I think it will sleet or snow tonight again...it won't be rain and that is for sure.:D:D:D

Slashermcguirk

Met eireann just updated their website and seem to think snow accumulations possible in the east on Wednesday. That could be a jinx of course but hopefully not.

Hopefully everyone will get snow but seems to be looking decent for the east for now

barney 20v

Min wrote: »

I see a darker pinky red dot over my house in that :pac:

Same as.... I've been away from any updates since Friday evening...can anyone give me an update as to chances of snow on high-ground on the east coast please?

John.Icy

UKMO is lovely at +120.

A good thing to be taken is, UKMO and GFS are similar at +96.

GFS is close to sending enough energy SE, it doesn't make it though.

What happens of we get enough energy SE?

UKMO my friends. All to play for.

Rougies

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

UKMO not looking good to me! Looks similar to GFS

96hrs UKMO almost exactly the same as GFS (but note the angle of the isobars are straighter on the UKMO becuase of a better fight from the east) then 120hrs has a massive undercut. Still good!

BLIZZARD7

+144hrs would challenge 1982 on the UKMO!





Dan

Gonzo

looking at the weekly forecasts on the tv and the charts on the web right now it looks like it's game over for snow in the western half of Ireland where the air will just be that bit milder but theres still a risk of sleet and snow at times in the north and east. Not sure if any of the snow will stick much at lower levels but wicklow mountains are gonna do very well this week, as is central and eastern England. If luck is on our side there could be several inchs of snow in parts of leinster and ulster during the week. But everything is just very uncertain, snow fell today in Leinster which was a bit unexpected, it did not stick but at least it snowed!

whitebriar

Rougies wrote: »

96hrs UKMO almost exactly the same as GFS (but note the angle of the isobars are straighter on the UKMO becuase of a better fight from the east) then 120hrs has a massive undercut. Still good!

A 1020 scandi high is a very weak affair though.If the actual is weaker there come friday,then the slider low won't be sliding.
There's no point getting excited over such a shakey set up.
Ecm will be interesting but as of late,hardly likely to verify for friday either regardless

Lets see what the 00z's bring,yes the 00z's wenesday

maquiladora

John.Icy wrote: »

UKMO is lovely at +120.

A good thing to be taken is, UKMO and GFS are similar at +96.

GFS is close to sending enough energy SE, it doesn't make it though.

What happens of we get enough energy SE?

UKMO my friends. All to play for.

GFS has slightly backtracked with the jet position from the 06Z run, but not enough to stop what happens. Worryingly, the UKMO has moved closer to the GFS, but not enough to change it's mind totally.

The difference between where the energy goes is the difference between a mild washout and potential snowfests the likes we which haven't been seen in a long time.

Nervously watching GEM.

Edit : GEM handles the jet at 66 almost identical to the GFS. Exactly what we didn't want to see.

Rougies

whitebriar wrote: »

A 1020 scandi high is a very weak affair though.If the actual is weaker there come friday,then the slider low won't be sliding.
There's no point getting excited over such a shakey set up.
Ecm will be interesting but as of late,hardly likely to verify for friday either regardless

Lets see what the 00z's bring,yes the 00z's wenesday

Indeed. I'm not excited yet. Still cautiously optimistic.

Netweather is hilarious, they're all wetting themselves over the UKMO

Snowaddict

The Met Eireann references to accumulating snows in the East during Tuesday/Wednesday were based upon yesterday's 12Z UKMO and 12Z ECMWF Guidance, along with the UKMO Fax Charts.

Subsequent NWP Guidance, beginning with the GFS 18Z (last night) has downgraded the strength of the Easterly flow markedly and I expect that these references will be diluted later tonight if ECMWF 12Z remains consistent with its overnight 00Z guidance.

That said however, there appears to be at least some potential for snowfall in Eastern/Central districts during the coming week.

If, for example, the 12Z UKMO Guidance were to verify - then conditions would be very extreme. That SE/Easterly flow, with that energy, combined with a very long draw from a bitterly cold continent would equate to a snow machine!

However - given the volatility of the NWP Guidance presently - I wouldn't look too much beyond T+72!

SA

Gonzo

Rougies wrote: »

Indeed. I'm not excited yet. Still cautiously optimistic.

Netweather is hilarious, they're all wetting themselves over the UKMO

In fairness tho the chances of decent snow in Eastern Uk is far greater than ours so If I was living there I'd be fairly excited too. In eastern Ireland were still within a chance but it's very much knifes edge and it will either be a washout or a snowfest. Not sure anyone can guarantee what will happen untill they look out the window when and if the precipitation arrives.

Rougies

Gonzo wrote: »

In fairness tho the chances of decent snow in Eastern Uk is far greater than ours so If I was living there I'd be fairly excited too. In eastern Ireland were still within a chance but it's very much knifes edge and it will either be a washout or a snowfest. Not sure anyone can guarantee what will happen untill they look out the window when and if the precipitation arrives.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be excited

finnharpsboy

so what times do these runs take place? just starting to understand them a little bit now

Musicman2000

Rougies wrote: »

I'm not saying they shouldn't be excited

They better not look at the GFS 12z or they will be in tears

Well we had 5 minutes of a decent snowfall in Dublin 15 thismorning. Followed by rain

fr wishy washy

Security light switched to on all night. (for obvious reasons)