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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705
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maquiladora wrote: »
GFS has slightly backtracked with the jet position from the 06Z run, but not enough to stop what happens. Worryingly, the UKMO has moved closer to the GFS, but not enough to change it's mind totally.
The difference between where the energy goes is the difference between a mild washout and potential snowfests the likes we which haven't been seen in a long time.
Nervously watching GEM.
Edit : GEM handles the jet at 66 almost identical to the GFS. Exactly what we didn't want to see.
In times like these Maq, praying and optimism may be our last resort.
But seriously, I do see potential for GFS to come round to a UKMO esque solution. For example, GFS @120, did send some energy SE, little area of low to our south. UKMO had a more resilient block to a slightly different Atlantic, and thus a massive undercut took place. At the +96 stage of each? An undercut definitely looked possible on both IMO. Of course, as you said, the UKMO did trend slightly towards GFS. Worrying? You betcha, but then again, couldn't we almost say GFS is trending towards a UKMO solution? Tweak that 12z GFS slightly, have more energy head SE, and bobs your uncle.
With saying that, I'd highly doubt something as severe as that UKMO would come off. Proper stuff of ledgend right there, and its crazy to think the charts are for 4/5 days out! Fascinating stuff.0 -
maquiladora wrote: »Sadly I think those UKMO 120 & 144 charts will only be useful to print out and cry over as the mild air and heavy rain takes over at those timeframes.
UKMO and GEM (the holdout models) have moved much too closely to the GFS in the important timeframes for that to be ignored while the GFS only made a minor adjustment.
Even though UKMO (and maybe the GEM, run hasn't finished yet) 'get there' in the end, its the type of gradual climbdown you'd expect would fully complete after the 0Z runs.
(Depressing I know, but thats how I see it at the moment! :P )
Maq, you're gonna cause mass depression in here..........!!!!!!
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i think ye might be as well looking at fish swimming around a goldfish bowl as looking at the models the last few days cause there nearly more of a hindrance than a help at the moment:rolleyes: kinda glad ive been only tuning in know and again cause all the chopping and changin would drive ye mad.....hopin for something good starting from the week after next
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In times like these Maq, praying and optimism may be our last resort.
But seriously, I do see potential for GFS to come round to a UKMO esque solution. For example, GFS @120, did send some energy SE, little area of low to our south. UKMO had a more resilient block to a slightly different Atlantic, and thus a massive undercut took place. At the +96 stage of each? An undercut definitely looked possible on both IMO. Of course, as you said, the UKMO did trend slightly towards GFS. Worrying? You betcha, but then again, couldn't we almost say GFS is trending towards a UKMO solution? Tweak that 12z GFS slightly, have more energy head SE, and bobs your uncle.
With saying that, I'd highly doubt something as severe as that UKMO would come off. Proper stuff of ledgend right there, and its crazy to think the charts are for 4/5 days out! Fascinating stuff.
The thing is I think the UKMO and GEM have moved towards the GFS in a considerable way. The GFS adjustment seems minor in comparison.
You better dip your rosary beads in the tears of Piers Corbyn and pray to St. Bastardi that the ECM takes the energy southeast, cause thats the only way I think thats going to happen. :P
OK I'm being dramatic, just trying to lighen the mood a bit.0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »
The thing is I think the UKMO and GFS have moved towards the GFS in a considerable way. The GFS adjustment seems minor in comparison.
Well personally I'd find it strange if the GFS wasn't moving towards the GFS.
I presume you mean the GEM. If so, I personally think the GEM is ok, sure, short term trends towards gfs, but by +96, energy is possibly going somewhere. Where??? SE baby. :P
ECM yep will tell a lot.
Also, what a beast of an LP on some models post +120 timeframe coming out of America! :O0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »Sadly I think those UKMO 120 & 144 charts will only be useful to print out and cry over as the mild air and heavy rain takes over at those timeframes.
UKMO and GEM (the holdout models) have moved much too closely to the GFS in the important timeframes for that to be ignored while the GFS only made a minor adjustment.
Even though UKMO (and maybe the GEM, run hasn't finished yet) 'get there' in the end, its the type of gradual climbdown you'd expect would fully complete after the 0Z runs.
(Depressing I know, but thats how I see it at the moment! :P )
You are probably right Maq but do you know what is keeping me going? The fact that nobody knows exactly what way things are going, not the models, the met professionals or us! We have already seen some snow on low levels today and thats days before we are due any, I have a hunch we might see something soon! I think we'd be very unlucky if we didnt!! Keep the faith... We need you!!! 0 -
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Eastcoastryan wrote: »You are probably right Maq but do you know what is keeping me going? The fact that nobody knows exactly what way things are going, not the models, the met professionals or us! We have already seen some snow on low levels today and thats days before we are due any, I have a hunch we might see something soon! I think we'd be very unlucky if we didnt!! Keep the faith... We need you!!!
Well there's no need to get too depressed. If we're not lucky this time, we could well have another chance late in the month or next month.0 -
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Lads why not use the 120 hour model thread and over 120 hour model thread? things are messy in here.
It's grand in here for the moment. If snow starts getting nailed on we'll have to switch over alright. It's easier here anyway because we can talk about short term and long term in the same place
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