LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Eastcoastryan

ECM is colder at 72 with -8 uppers in the East

corksurfer2005

Verdicts?

Darwin

This chart generating a lot of excitement on netweather, but unlikely to verify:

Rougies

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Verdicts?

Better for the East on Wed.
Long term looking better so far too. Not great, but better.

maquiladora

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Verdicts?

ECM goes pretty much the same route as the GFS out to 120.

A bit better in the near term for us, but the bigger picture is the same.

Min

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Verdicts?

Take Evelyn's advice, keep in touch with the daily forecasts for the latest updates.

It is hard to be certain about anything.

rc28

ECM looks slightly better than previous run to my eyes. Slightly colder uppers midweek. At +144 the Scandinavian high also looks a little stronger than previous run.

icesnowfrost

Wat are the chances if snow around the Louth/meath area tonight

pad199207

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Wat are the chances if snow around the Louth/meath area tonight

ive a feeling theres going to be a lot of those questions on here this week!

downwiththatsor

pad199207 wrote: »

ive a feeling theres going to be a lot of those questions on here this week!

Might be time to set up a website called Predictsnowinmybackyard.com, i wonder should there be a charge for predictions?

lucy2010

Min wrote: »

Take Evelyn's advice, keep in touch with the daily forecasts for the latest updates.

It is hard to be certain about anything.

Does anyone have a link to te precipitation charts ( sorry cant remember ) that's always a good one to follow too

Problem123456

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Wat are the chances if snow around the Louth/meath area tonight

11%

silverthorn100

any chance of snow in the south east region at any stage... tipperary/kilkenny

fontenoy7

The only 'real' snow I feel we will have this week is on wednesday or thursday in the Eastern costal of the country and even that is in question at the moment. It could turn out to be dry and cold only.

davidsr20

Guys it seems to be all about the east as every year! Did ye all not know its all about Dublin lol

downwiththatsor

lucy2010 wrote: »

Does anyone have a link to te precipitation charts ( sorry cant remember ) that's always a good one to follow too

Reliable precipitation forecasts
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm Hirlam Precipitation to Tues at 19.00 (click on nedbor)
http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418 similar but dark blue = snow
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=1&PERIOD=&WMO= Nae Model pink = snow

Larbre34

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys it seems to be all about the east as every year! Did ye all not know its all about Dublin lol

Yes its about Antrim, Down, Armagh, Louth, Meath, Kildare, Meath, Wicklow and Wexford as well. And even at that the chances of decent snow here from streamers this week is less than 50/50

Lucreto

silverthorn100 wrote: »

any chance of snow in the south east region at any stage... tipperary/kilkenny

Doubt it. Tempetures are still doing up. 3.5 in Naas and rising.

Fuh Q

Was Dublin the only place to get a sprinkling of the white stuff today ?

Problem123456

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys it seems to be all about the east as every year! Did ye all not know its all about Dublin lol

Unfortunately the east the most snow..
We cant change that :P

Deep Easterly

weatherfiend wrote: »

The really weird thing is the temp currently is 3c but I'm freezing - cant get warm. Apparently a westerly wind but it feels much too chilly for that. Even in the house with the heat on there's a chill which we usually only get with an easterly (and stong) wind. Maybe it's just reading about all the snow "potential" that I'm imagining the cold but all of us are feeling it.

Weirdly, there is that distinctive 'snow smell' outside here, even though there is no snow and temp is 5.0c. First time I smelled that smell this winter so far. :pac:

Trotter

I'm in Waterford and at times like this I always throw in the 1 in 6 rule. We get snow worth taking photos of every 6 years on average.. i.e. Sometimes 3, sometimes 10! I'm not expecting anything this year or next year. Statistically we're not due anything like good snow here since we got it in 2009/10. Simplistic I know but I don't see why statistics aren't built into FI charts anyway.

Short version.. We're not due any!

Having said that, the heaviest snow that I remember has always been 2 or 3 bursts in a 24 hour period that's gone within 48 hrs. I never remember a week or more of snow and I'm in my mid 30's.

I'm going for a no this time. I'll be more hopeful in 2015 when we're more 'due it'.

Snowaddict

Good reason to be optimistic this evening in terms of cold at least! Impressively 850HPA Temperatures of -6 are retained until Saturday next in the East on the latest 12Z ECMWF Guidance.

If you want to see real cold however, check out the Northern Hemispheric Profile and (North America) on T+216/T+240 on the latest ECMWF 12Z Guidance.

Serious problems for large metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Northeast USA if that was to verify!

SA

chilipepper

The day after tomorrow is on E4 to get ye in the mood for what we can expect in the coming weeks.

Rougies

Trotter wrote: »

I'm in Waterford and at times like this I always throw in the 1 in 6 rule. We get snow worth taking photos of every 6 years on average.. i.e. Sometimes 3, sometimes 10! I'm not expecting anything this year or next year. Statistically we're not due anything like good snow here since we got it in 2009/10. Simplistic I know but I don't see why statistics aren't built into FI charts anyway.

Short version.. We're not due any!

Having said that, the heaviest snow that I remember has always been 2 or 3 bursts in a 24 hour period that's gone within 48 hrs. I never remember a week or more of snow and I'm in my mid 30's.

I'm going for a no this time. I'll be more hopeful in 2015 when we're more 'due it'.

You're falling into "the gambler's fallacy" there. It doesn't work like that.

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

I'm in Waterford and at times like this I always throw in the 1 in 6 rule. We get snow worth taking photos of every 6 years on average.. i.e. Sometimes 3, sometimes 10! I'm not expecting anything this year or next year. Statistically we're not due anything like good snow here since we got it in 2009/10. Simplistic I know but I don't see why statistics aren't built into FI charts anyway.

Short version.. We're not due any!

Having said that, the heaviest snow that I remember has always been 2 or 3 bursts in a 24 hour period that's gone within 48 hrs. I never remember a week or more of snow and I'm in my mid 30's.

I'm going for a no this time. I'll be more hopeful in 2015 when we're more 'due it'.

If you had your camera in '47 you would have gotten some pictures. Even down in Ardmore on the coast.

I recall also that year of the big snow – 1947 broke all records when measured in degrees of cold and frost – the cold spell lasted for round about 10 weeks and rural communities such as Ardmore were frequently cut off in the blizzard conditions when snowdrifts as 10ft were commonplace, I remember the village being completely cut off and the snow being shovelled away at the Sluggera Cross to allow Flemings bread van from Youghal to get into the village.

http://www.esatclear.ie/~jlarkin/ssary/ssary.htm

Rougies

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Weirdly, there is that distinctive 'snow smell' outside here, even though there is no snow and temp is 5.0c. First time I smelled that smell this winter so far. :pac:

I know that smell. For me it's the smell of smoke from chimneys as the easterly wind over Dublin carries it over to me. And because it's cold, there's more smoke too as there are more fires. I wonder if that's what you;re smelling too, the smoke from all the towns and villages as the wind travels across the country to Tuam?

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

I know that smell. For me it's the smell of smoke from chimneys as the easterly wind over Dublin carries it over to me. And because it's cold, there's more smoke too as there are more fires. I wonder if that's what you;re smelling too, the smoke from all the towns and villages as the wind travels across the country to Tuam?

It's the smell of the UKMO computer on fire in Exeter.

Saganist

Rougies wrote: »

I know that smell. For me it's the smell of smoke from chimneys as the easterly wind over Dublin carries it over to me. And because it's cold, there's more smoke too as there are more fires. I wonder if that's what you;re smelling too, the smoke from all the towns and villages as the wind travels across the country to Tuam?

I can smell it too. Def smoke from household fires.

Deep Easterly

Rougies wrote: »

I know that smell. For me it's the smell of smoke from chimneys as the easterly wind over Dublin carries it over to me. And because it's cold, there's more smoke too as there are more fires. I wonder if that's what you;re smelling too, the smoke from all the towns and villages as the wind travels across the country to Tuam?

Nope, wind is from the WNW here and living in a smog prone area, I know the smell of chimney smoke well; this is different, this is the snow smell.