LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Rougies

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Nope, wind is from the WNW here and living in a smog prone area, I know the smell of chimney smoke well; this is different, this is the snow smell.

Oh yeah, the winds are westerly at the moment alright (model fatigue kicking in)
Well good to hear reports of the snow smell anyway!

Deep Easterly

Rougies wrote: »

Well good to hear reports of the snow smell anyway!

Gotta take what you can for sure.

Trotter

maquiladora wrote: »

If you had your camera in '47 you would have gotten some pictures. Even down in Ardmore on the coast.

Thats stunning. I just cant imagine it happening. Maybe the climate has changed just that little bit that puts that situation beyond us here in the South East coast.

lucy2010

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Reliable precipitation forecasts
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm Hirlam Precipitation to Tues at 19.00 (click on nedbor)
http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418 similar but dark blue = snow
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=1&PERIOD=&WMO= Nae Model pink = snow

Thanks a mil

Gonzo

As for tonights precipitation, I get the feeling judging from current temperatures compared to yesterday, the current charts and the forecasts on TV that tonight's front will mostly deliver rain with sleet mixed in, as we are now in slightly milder air and temperatures have risen slightly on what they were all day.

Eastcoastryan

Gonzo wrote: »

As for tonights precipitation, I get the feeling judging from current temperatures compared to yesterday, the current charts and the forecasts on TV that tonight's front will mostly deliver rain with sleep mixed in, as we are now in slightly milder air and temperatures have risen slightly on what they were all day.

Great, I could do with a good sleep.. These models have me exhausted!!!

Deep Easterly

Here is the 850 hPa temp and MSLP pattern for the last 3 days if it helps to give a sense of trend leading up to any potential that may lie ahead for the coming days. Images from Vedur.is

irish1967

Well for anyone looking at radar you'll see we have percip up here in Donegal Townright now... and its.....rain

maquiladora

12Z ECM ensemble mean

24 hours from now :



10 days from now :



Interesting.

Bejubby

That looks like trouble!
Much wanted trouble.

leahyl

Leahyl is a VERY happy bunny after that forecast from Evelyn! I do believe that was a cloud with snow over Cork was it not?! I'll take that! :-D

the groutch

I thought they couldnt predict with any significant accuracy more than 5 days ahead?
It will be interesting to see how cold it is if the heavy precipitation forecast for Firday materialises though.

maquiladora

the groutch wrote: »

I thought they couldnt predict with any significant accuracy more than 5 days ahead?
It will be interesting to see how cold it is if the heavy precipitation forecast for Firday materialises though.

The ECM ensemble mean is the average based on 50 different runs of a computer model, all with slightly different starting conditions to account for errors.

Rougies

the groutch wrote: »

I thought they couldnt predict with any significant accuracy more than 5 days ahead?
It will be interesting to see how cold it is if the heavy precipitation forecast for Firday materialises though.

You're right, they can't. And right now even two days ahead is proving difficult.

It's the trends and potential we're talking about past 48hrs.

red_bairn

Rougies wrote: »

You're right, they can't. And right now even two days ahead is proving difficult.

It's the trends and potential we're talking about past 48hrs.

But with the similarities between the 24hrs and 240hrs looking identical in nature surely it's a good sign that it may be an n-ice situation.

kingshankly

A week of lamppost watching ahead

Rougies

red_bairn wrote: »

But with the similarities between the 24hrs and 240hrs looking identical in nature surely it's a good sign that it may be an n-ice situation.

Well 24hrs isn't that good to begin with. But yeah it's better to see cold still close by at 240hrs than raging Atlantic. Not that it matters anyway, 240hrs may as well be 240 million hours in the current model "climate"

fr wishy washy

Get a security light on off on off on off on off on off

nacho libre

looks like i might be walking through the snow tomorrow morning if the nea chart is correct:)

maquiladora

18Z GFS. The jet is a bit further south. But not enough. You'd actually want to strangle it looking at the charts. :mad::pac:

brianthomas

I CAN'T TAKE THIS ANYMORRRRRREEEEEEE!

nacho libre

yes, a model burn out group maybe be needed soon:D

the gfs chart for friday looks like a case of if only- there would be a potential classic event if it played ball by going further south and east

corksurfer2005

Lads I'm fed up of the chase to be honest.

On the verge of jumping overBOARD. (Pun intended)

Mr Cumulonimbus

Time this was done.............

Rougies

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Time this was done.............

Wrong thread to post that in. There's another one where it might be more fitting

delw

nacho libre wrote: »

looks like i might be walking through the snow tomorrow morning if the nea chart is correct:)

Rub our noses in it why don't you

corksurfer2005

What would these runs with the PV coming across the atlantic to pay us a visit actually mean for us?

Kippure

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Looks like we are going to get one of those great pics of the UK and Ireland covered in snow again soon. Gotta love it!

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/290335674253602817/photo/1

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi: Coldmeggedon in Europe! left day 1-5 temps, middle 6-10 rt major snowfalls much of continent including UK!

nacho libre

Ian Fergusson:
only just catching up on all this discussion today, but can I strike major note of caution re any comment on UKMO-GM raw at T+120 etc.... this underwent major amendment at Exeter to reach better consensus with EC/GFS 12Z and for now the broad anticyclonic pattern remains favoured, i.e. mostly dry barring boundary layer developments onto E coasts. There was no support for GM solution and hence Exeter changes, as doubtless reflected in FAX charts (albeit I haven't yet checked) are as per modified model frames as example posted here.

icesnowfrost

delw wrote: »

Rub our noses in it why don't you

Were will he be walking in snow ?