LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

cherryghost

NOGAPS throws a spanner in the works medium term and keeps the easterlies pushing after a temporary withdrawl. At this point I've got a migrane.

nacho libre

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

What would these runs with the PV coming across the atlantic to pay us a visit actually mean for us?

Cold, wet and windy most likely. Scotland might get snow out of it.

maquiladora

There's some really strange stuff in FI on the 18Z GFS when that part of the polar vortex gets displaced into the Atlantic.

I love how we're getting cold uppers not from the north or east, but from the other side of the Atlantic.



528 air extending out from North America reaching Scandinavia.



I heard you liked deep lows?



How about enough rain for Noah's Ark II, but turning to snow during those gales?



It's FI though, so it mightn't happen. :cool:

Scubadevils

I was actually going to ask that question earlier in terms of whether it can ever happen that the cold actually pushes across the Atlantic from the US, I was looking at it edge across on the 18z in the reliable but figured it wasn't possible. Surely if it did, we'd be plastered in snow?!

Trotter

Ok for the sake of my marriage I'm unfollowing this thread. If we're actually getting snow, can someone throw an 'ol post in the 0-120 model thread? The mediator has agreed to let me stay in that one if I clean out the dishwasher today like I said I'd do yesterday

corksurfer2005

Seeing as we already have the NOGAPS we might as well rename the GFS "NOCLUE" and just stop looking at the thing.

NIALL D

what kind of 850 hpa temps would be needed for snow comin from the atlantic ? i presume a hell of a lot colder than air out east !? - 10 , -12 ???

Rougies

Scubadevils wrote: »

I was actually going to ask that question earlier in terms of whether it can ever happen that the cold actually pushes across the Atlantic from the US, I was looking at it edge across on the 18z in the reliable but figured it wasn't possible. Surely if it did, we'd be plastered in snow?!

I was thinking the same. I don't think we have any example of it happening before and I think it's highly unlikely. Even if it did happen, there would be major modification of surface temps coming all the way across the Atlantic. It's a strange one.

dermiek

Trotter wrote: »

Ok for the sake of my marriage I'm unfollowing this thread. If we're actually getting snow, can someone throw an 'ol post in the 0-120 model thread? The mediator has agreed to let me stay in that one if I clean out the dishwasher today like I said I'd do yesterday

Your mediator and mine must be sisters!!!!:(

nacho libre

Scubadevils wrote: »

I was actually going to ask that question earlier in terms of whether it can ever happen that the cold actually pushes across the Atlantic from the US, I was looking at it edge across on the 18z in the reliable but figured it wasn't possible. Surely if it did, we'd be plastered in snow?!

it's more likely i'll get a date with Liv Tyler, than what's depicted on the gfs verifying

dacogawa

maquiladora wrote: »

There's some really strange stuff in FI on the 18Z GFS when that part of the polar vortex gets displaced into the Atlantic.

I love how we're getting cold uppers not from the north or east, but from the other side of the Atlantic.

It's FI though, so it mightn't happen. :cool:

I think the GFS watched The Day After Tomorrow tonight! :rolleyes:

oterra

cherryghost wrote: »

NOGAPS throws a spanner in the works medium term and keeps the easterlies pushing after a temporary withdrawl. At this point I've got a migrane.

Does NOGAPS have much credibility in these types of set ups. GFS and ECM seem to be backing off any serious sustained cold setup, just wondering about NOGAPS track record?

nacho libre

NIALL D wrote: »

what kind of 850 hpa temps would be needed for snow comin from the atlantic ? i presume a hell of a lot colder than air out east !? - 10 , -12 ???

how fast the flow is another factor to consider, the faster it got here, the less time for it to undergo modification, in that scenario - 8 might be sufficient.

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

There's some really strange stuff in FI on the 18Z GFS when that part of the polar vortex gets displaced into the Atlantic.

I love how we're getting cold uppers not from the north or east, but from the other side of the Atlantic.



528 air extending out from North America reaching Scandinavia.




It's FI though, so it mightn't happen. :cool:

Maq, on this chart are those lines (2400, 2800, 3200 etc) the snowline in metres? Unsure what they are.

Lagoona Blue

Evening folks I see the rollercoaster is still rolling

Though it doesn't look like snowmageddon is coming ?

well hopefully soon. I'm glued to this thread for the last few days . Hang on in there folks !

In the meantime I'll be lamppost watching

maquiladora

oterra wrote: »

Does NOGAPS have much credibility in these types of set ups. GFS and ECM seem to be backing off any serious sustained cold setup, just wondering about NOGAPS track record?

NOGAPS is considered a lesser model than GFS/UKMO/ECM/GEM etc. It doesn't get trotted out much at all. It's actually being phased out soon and replaced with a new model, NAVGEM.

Rougies

oterra wrote: »

Does NOGAPS have much credibility in these types of set ups. GFS and ECM seem to be backing off any serious sustained cold setup, just wondering about NOGAPS track record?

Rumour around town is that NOGAPS has about as much credibility as an email from a Nigerian prince.

oterra

Rougies wrote: »

Rumour around town is that NOGAPS has about as much credibility as an email from a Nigerian prince.

That's a bit unfair, a Nigerian Prince has left me $28, 000,000. I thought it was really generous. Just have to give him some bank details!!!

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Maq, on this chart are those lines (2400, 2800, 3200 etc) the snowline in metres? Unsure what they are.

It's show two things, the freezing level and thickness. At the moment we are stuggling to get the 528 line (thickness) over us from the UK over the next couple of days, as we so often do in marginal snow/no snow type of setups. Its sort of the minimum you'd want for snow in most cases.

Seeing it streching out from North America out over us no problem and then even further east looks truely bizarre in comparison.

dacogawa

If that GFS for the 25th to 28th of Jan comes off!
(Disclamer: Artistic interpretation, weather conditions may vary )

Daniel2590

Well even if we did get -10 uppers coming from the Atlantic, knowing our luck we'd end up with non-stop Easterlies :pac:

delw

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Were will he be walking in snow ?

He's over in England,were he is we just don't know,he's like the scarlet pimpernel

oterra

Ian Ferguson

@fergieweather: "@DerekTheWeather: @fergieweather nice high pressure block over Scandinavia on Friday! http://t.co/HNMGpna6" knife-edge to SW for sure...!

Mr Cumulonimbus

2355 forecast on RTE Radio 1 just after mentioning that Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is the time of greatest risk for a possible sleet or snow occurence.

Saganist

From rte.ie

3 Day Outlook
OUTLOOK: Very cold, with some severe frosts. Sunny at times, but wintry showers possible too - but some uncertainty though at this stage.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cold, with frosty icy conditions for a time, especially across the eastern half of the country. Clouding over from the west, with wintry outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow moving in across the country; snow mainly falling over higher ground, but some falls possible on lower levels too. Lowest temperatures -2 to +2 degrees Celsius, with light to moderate easterly winds.
WEDNESDAY: Cold, with scattered outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow; some accumulations possible on lower levels. However it should brighten up from the north through the afternoon. Highest temperatures just 3 or 4 degrees Celsius generally, but a little less cold near southern fringes. Winds will remain mostly moderate easterly. A severe frost will set in soon after dark, with icy stretches and some lying snow in parts. Freezing fog too, with just light southeast breezes. Lowest temperatures -1 to -6 degrees Celsius.
THURSDAY: Extremely frosty to begin, with ice on untreated surfaces. Dry across most areas for the day, with good sunny spells. Staying cold, with highest temperatures just 2 to 4 degrees Celsius across most regions, more like 5 to 7 degrees Celsius though in the southwest, where it will tend to be a little cloudier (risk of some light rain here). Winds will be light to moderate southeasterly.
FRIDAY: A frosty start, and again ice on untreated surfaces. Staying dry across the eastern half of the country with sunshine at first. However outbreaks of rain will develop elsewhere, turning heavy and persistent at times later; risk of some wintry precipitation. Highest temperatures will range just 2 degrees Celsius over Ulster to 6 or 7 degrees Celsius over Munster. Breezy at times too, with moderate, occasionally fresh south to southeast winds.

RobitTV

I swear at least 1 heavy snowfall will do, please, please the lord bless us! :P

Imagine the possibility of a day off or maybe getting off early. *faints*

Nabber

getting off early to be stuck in traffic for 3 hours?:)

It's so marginal

Pangea

met.ie is nice for reading.
-6 and lying snow, and isn't this meant to be a precursor to the real wintery stuff later?

John.Icy

The folks over at Exeter don't seem to be buying their own UKMO 12z(as expected). Adapted the fax charts to a more GFS/ECM/UKMO solution.

Judging by this, I'd expect UKMO to be a lot less yummy on 0z.

Which I won't wait up for, night folks.

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

met.ie is nice for reading.
-6 and lying snow, and isn't this meant to be a precursor to the real wintery stuff later?

Really hard to tell but just going by the ens shown tonight, it would seem that Ireland at least will be stuck more or less between colder air to the east and anything particularly active to the west. Could well play out that either of these two forces could take a firmer grip over Ireland the next 10 days or so, but could equally play out that we'll just stay on the periphery of each, which is the form horse this season to date. 9 day outlook from the ECM below with a couple of added explanations (which are totally subjective on my part)