LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Bejubby

whitebriar wrote: »

With this set up.I'd guess highest rain risk south of a line in a Northwest to southeast tilt from Galway to New Ross.

Thanks very much, youve ruined it for me now.
Id say galway to waterford,that's better.

whitebriar

derekon wrote: »

Makes perfect sense, thanks Whitebriar

D

Replying on my phone,and accidently typed lesser instead of greater above-changed it now.
Basically the heavier the precip,the faster it falls through that drop zone and the bigger is the chance of snow heading to ground.

Its also a simple explanation of why in marginal conditions, the higher your ground,the better your chances.

DOCARCH

Vanolder wrote: »

So in short, maybe snow midweek but not likely?? Chance again the weekend but again not likely?

I think that sums it up nicely. Probably best chance, so far this winter, for snow this week, but, very marginal looking at the moment. Knife edge stuff.

mike65

Quite mild at the moment!

Speak Now

mike65 wrote: »

Quite mild at the moment!

6.6

Oarrack Bama

Nice eye candy for Ireland here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php

Rougies

Sums it up for me...

Harps

whitebriar wrote: »

Replying on my phone,and accidently typed lesser instead of greater above-changed it now.
Basically the heavier the precip,the faster it falls through that drop zone and the bigger is the chance of snow heading to ground.

Its also a simple explanation of why in marginal conditions, the higher your ground,the better your chances.

The most recent frontal snow event from memory was in early February 2011 when we woke up to about 6 or 7cm in Letterkenny, actually still the last time I've seen any real accumulation come to think of it. It came completely by surprise and any potential wasn't even talked about on here beforehand

Can't remember the specifics and on my phone so can't dig up charts but think upper temps were only around -3C with positive air temps on the ground and no previous cold pool, it was a very different setup to this week but just shows that its definitely possible for significant accumulation in these very marginal setups

rc28

Rougies wrote: »

Sums it up for me...

Love that South Park episode!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBVkk5rW0lw

Spindle

Harps wrote: »

The most recent frontal snow event from memory was in early February 2010 when we woke up to about 6 or 7cm in Letterkenny, actually still the last time I've seen any real accumulation come to think of it. It came completely by surprise and any potential wasn't even talked about on here beforehand

Can't remember the specifics and on my phone so can't dig up charts but think upper temps were only around -3C with positive air temps on the ground and no previous cold pool, it was a very different setup to this week but just shows that its definitely possible for significant accumulation in these very marginal setups

This is what makes snow hunting so much fun, as there are the perfect conditions that will always get you snow that you can look for on models etc. But then there are local snow falls that you can get by surprise because there was just the right combination over your head.

That is why this week will be exciting, I know from looking at the models the chances look slim, but there is cold air near, and in a country where the difference between rain and snow is slim, you just never know

Making it stick is another thing though

derekon

Piers Corbyn seems to think we are in for a very cold spell to rival that of December 2010. Of course, Ireland most likely to see rain out of this

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=512&c=5

Extreme cold, blizzards and snow drifts "many feet deep" to bring chaos to England and Wales for at least three weeks - into early Feb

· WeatherAction forecast issued ahead of all others
This catastrophic forecast scenario was first issued in detail in mid-December by WeatherAction long range forecasters and is now starting to come true. "Other forecasters are just starting to agree with us three weeks late but they don’t realize how severe this is going to be", said Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeratherAction.com
"Our solar-lunar based forecast predicted generally increasingly cold and very cold weather from around Sat 12th Jan for Britain and Ireland. Next, waves of major Arctic blasts and blizzards with many feet of drifting snow are likely in places from around 20th with another major blizzardy blast around the begining of February.
"England and Wales including the South are likely to get the deepest snow, while Scotland and Northern parts of Ireland will probably be very cold rather than very snowy. Some of the SouthWest of Britain and Ireland will probably get rain rather than snow at times.

Bejubby

If only the battleground would shift a bit in our favour it would be awesome.

lucy2010

before I absolutely brick myself temps to get down to minus 12 at the weekend in Paris ... ( WTF !!!)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=9

Need major tips on keeping kids warm in that weather - be lucky if they have felt -1 here !!!!!

maquiladora

Bejubby wrote: »

If only the battleground would shift a bit in our favour it would be awesome.

From the forecast last night. Evelyn stressed the uncertainty about which side we'll end up on, but it's always more likely we'll be on the mild side just because of our position. Or it could be even more knife edge with the split between rain/sleet/snow running down the country itself. I think this forum would erupt in civil war. :pac:



Interesting week ahead for sure.

Spindle

lucy2010 wrote: »

before I absolutely brick myself temps to get down to minus 12 at the weekend in Paris ... ( WTF !!!)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=9

Need major tips on keeping kids warm in that weather - be lucky if they have felt -1 here !!!!!

This only a bit of cold , wrap up and a few warm drinks (a drop of french brandy will help as well)

Inquitus

So in summary we still don't have a clue whats going to happen?

patneve2

Definitely liking these ensembles, below average 850hPa temps and a fair share of precipitation. Marginal for lower levels but that can change

DOCARCH

Inquitus wrote: »

So in summary we still don't have a clue whats going to happen?

We'll only have a clue when it's happening! Nowcast.

compsys

maquiladora wrote: »

From the forecast last night. Evelyn stressed the uncertainty about which side we'll end up on, but it's always more likely we'll be on the mild side just because of our position. Or it could be even more knife edge with the split between rain/sleet/snow running down the country itself. I think this forum would erupt in civil war. :pac:



Interesting week ahead for sure.

You're quite right in that the battleground could end up being over Ireland itself. In this case it would seem areas in the North and East are more likely to get some now. Can't see much of it sticking but even some heavy snow showers to look at would be nice.

However, as much as it pains me to say it, given our climate and past experience, you have to presume that the batleground will be further West i.e. over Wales and England. We're just too close to the God damn Atlantic.

Nevertheless, a slight push further West with the cold and bingo!

davidsr20

When's the next models out is 12z not now?

Spindle

maquiladora wrote: »

From the forecast last night. Evelyn stressed the uncertainty about which side we'll end up on, but it's always more likely we'll be on the mild side just because of our position. Or it could be even more knife edge with the split between rain/sleet/snow running down the country itself. I think this forum would erupt in civil war. :pac:


Interesting week ahead for sure.

Classic that says it all really, reminds me of days going to school in the rain, and coming home in the snow.

If everyone on the West coast could get out there fans and point them towards the Atlantic we could push back the mild air a bit

I am off to look into deep FI, the models are so crazy that there must be a polar low in there somewhere heading for Ireland..........

loveisdivine

Starting to get jealous of my home town now. I was born in Leicester 26 years ago today and the place was thick with snow. 26 years on they are getting a load of snow again and I'm missing it!!

Come on Ireland just give me a flurry of snow. Juts a glimpse of it as a birthday present and I will be happy!

seamus

davidsr20 wrote: »

When's the next models out is 12z not now?

The time on the models indicates what real data the model is based on.

So the 12z model is based on real data which is taken at 12 o'clock. It then takes a few hours to do the simulation runs and jig about the data. When the data for that run is released varies depending on the model. Some start spitting out data after 4 hours, some not till 6 hours later.

red_bairn

loveisdivine wrote: »

Starting to get jealous of my home town now. I was born in Leicester 26 years ago today and the place was thick with snow. 26 years on they are getting a load of snow again and I'm missing it!!

Come on Ireland just give me a flurry of snow. Juts a glimpse of it as a birthday present and I will be happy!

Oh. Happy Birthday! Pity it's raining and 6deg here in Dublin. :S

Pangea

derekon wrote: »

Ireland most likely to see rain out of this

derekon wrote: »

My weather preference by the way is cold and snowy, not mild

Ok derekon.
You often say you would love to see snow but then post showing your happy without snow as per above, just curious as to what is going on in that head of yours or perhaps you have a different meaning to a Grinning face than everyone else? :P

maquiladora

Met Eireann certainly stressing the uncertainty in their latest outlook too. Fair play to them for stressing this point. Caps are their own, not mine.

HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY STILL AT THIS STAGE - as we lie on the borderline between cold Scandinavia air to the east and somewhat milder air in the near Atlantic. Latest model run suggests...

THURSDAY: Frost and ice on untreated surface to begin. Outbreaks of rain across the eastern half of the country, drier and somewhat brighter elsewhere. Top temperatures will range 5 or 6 degrees across northern counties to 8 or 9 degrees across southern counties. Winds will be just light southerly.

FRIDAY: Similar temperatures on Friday. However breezy wet conditions will soon spread from the Atlantic, snow possible later in the day across the north and east.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Spindle

loveisdivine wrote: »

Starting to get jealous of my home town now. I was born in Leicester 26 years ago today and the place was thick with snow. 26 years on they are getting a load of snow again and I'm missing it!!

Come on Ireland just give me a flurry of snow. Juts a glimpse of it as a birthday present and I will be happy!

Happy birthday, you might be interested to know that build up to the snowfall of 1987 took most by surprise as well......

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=libgen&id=1503

26 years on the models are all over the place again, there is a nice cold pool in Russia waiting to break out and we have an approaching cold spell which is to be broken down by the Atlantic. It is not exactly the same setup but things can change very quickly and don't worry if this spell gives us nothing.

rc28

Fair play to Met Eireann, they are completely correct to inform their viewers of the uncertainty rather than risk choosing mild or cold.

gbee

rc28 wrote: »

Fair play to Met Eireann, they are completely correct to inform their viewers of the uncertainty rather than risk choosing mild or cold.

I really feel it's just the weather enthusiasts in the audience that appreciate that, 99% of the public just won't get it, methinks.

whitebriar

Harps wrote: »

The most recent frontal snow event from memory was in early February 2011 when we woke up to about 6 or 7cm in Letterkenny, actually still the last time I've seen any real accumulation come to think of it. It came completely by surprise and any potential wasn't even talked about on here beforehand

Can't remember the specifics and on my phone so can't dig up charts but think upper temps were only around -3C with positive air temps on the ground and no previous cold pool, it was a very different setup to this week but just shows that its definitely possible for significant accumulation in these very marginal setups

Yes but you can't defy the laws of science,that precip had to be falling through a drop zone that wasn't warm enough to melt snow,same as yesterday(initially).

Unfortunately for Ireland,we're usually on the outer edge of any continental flow and when 850 temps are -5 or warmer,then pockets of colder drop zones are a fluke soon to be washed away as warmer Atlantic air inevitably rides up and over mixing away the snow.

What we have to watch this week is if fronts are being held at bay/pushed back south east wards by the incoming colder air.
For thats whats going to cool down that droo zone.