LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

pistolpetes11

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ECM confirms that snow watching in this country is a very frustrating past time
It's game over for this particular window of cold!!

From Ian Ferguson

ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS

drquirky

My models are suggesting a semi polar frontal stall occurring to the west of Greenland . When the thz releases the stall will use Siberian tangents to enhance the uppers

munsterlegend

ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS.

A note of optimism from Ian ferguson on NW and from BBC!

drquirky

t|nt|n wrote: »

+96

My models say -50

JanuarySnowstor

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

From Ian Ferguson

ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS

We can only go with what the models are showing us and all are poor tonight from an Irish point of view.
"Somewhat further West" isn't too inspiring when you consider the gfs is very poor for us. Yes from a UK pov it's looking quite interesting but for us it's game over for this spell!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Anyhoo !

Shouldn't we start seeing some changes tomorrow when the initial SSW effects start filtering down ?

BEASTERLY

t|nt|n wrote: »

Anyhoo !

Shouldn't we start seeing some changes tomorrow when the initial SSW effects start filtering down ?

Why tomorrow? A significant milestone in the propagation?

snaps

fontenoy7 wrote: »

Well Dublin city centre was buried two years running (for weeks) in 2008/209/2010:D:D:D:D

small difference in city size. Not sure what webcams you were looking at, but I saw a news report outside the BBC radio building and it was bucketing down snow. My parents live in Essex, they've loads of snow now.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Why tomorrow? A significant milestone in the propagation?

I believe that was the date for the first effects to filter down, the next more significant warming was I think the 22nd - 24th

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

We can only go with what the models are showing us and all are poor tonight from an Irish point of view.
"Somewhat further West" isn't too inspiring when you consider the gfs is very poor for us. Yes from a UK pov it's looking quite interesting but for us it's game over for this spell!

Possible snow event between 72 and 96 hours on this ECM run. For the north/east anyway.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Found it, from Glacier Point over on NW

Based on this, second phase to impact around 25th-28th January.

Kind of fits in with MTs thoughts too

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

Possible snow event between 72 and 96 hours on this ECM run. For the north/east anyway.

ECM does seem to want to hold on to colder air along the east and north east coasts.

Gonzo

think im gonna take a break and concentrate on other things! over a week of watching the cold get no further west yet the mild weather hasnt really won either its very tiring and it's frustrating watching the all too familiar scene of the Uk getting plastered with snow yet again. At this stage I'd rather a clean cut situation of just getting it over with, either the mild air wins out here or the cold air arrives, but been stuck in the middle and getting neither mild nor cold is painfull.

maquiladora

ECM at 87 hours. Precipitation on the left. Precipitation likely to fall as snow on the right.



It's just one run and it does agree with the GFS overall that this spell may be coming to a close this weekend but there is still potential there for snow in places before that.

icesnowfrost

It's raining again in Drogheda. It just seems hopeless this winter for snow. Not as bad as last year bit I'm starting to feel like its all over. And that takes a lot for me to admit 😥

snaps

Snow near Stansted Essex at my parents house. Taken around 14.30 today. A lot more fallen since then.

maquiladora

Ah, so that's what it looks like.

pistolpetes11

drquirky wrote: »

ECM runs into thz at x35 this should provide some clarity when the next models are run

Back up what your saying with some evidence ,

You have been banned from this forum before for talking rubbish , the next ban will be permanent

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

think im gonna take a break and concentrate on other things! over a week of watching the cold get no further west yet the mild weather hasnt really won either its very tiring and it's frustrating watching the all too familiar scene of the Uk getting plastered with snow yet again. At this stage I'd rather a clean cut situation of just getting it over with, either the mild air wins out here or the cold air arrives, but been stuck in the middle and getting neither mild nor cold is painfull.

Fully agree Gonzo, I would rather 12oC at this stage than be in this limbo land between cold and mild air. Just goes to show how the east of Britain can get plastered while Ireland does not get a flake

D

maquiladora

Maybe everybody stopped looking at the ECM after 144 but in FI it shows that it's possible that we may only have to wait a few more days before we have another chance, with no real 'mild' breakdown at all in between.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Maybe everybody stopped looking at the ECM after 144 but in FI it shows that it's possible that we may only have to wait a few more days before we have another chance, with no real 'mild' breakdown at all in between.

Yeah, saw all that. But as you said, it's in FI.
Better than nothing I suppose.

EDIT: I should be more optimistic I know, this is the ramping thread after all. Just getting exhausted at this stage. But there is loads of potential there in the coming week and beyond!

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Yeah, saw all that. But as you said, it's in FI.
Better than nothing I suppose.

Yep. Good to see more options opening up already. Still a lot to be decided even if things don't turn out great over the next few days. Look how many times the models have changed over the past week or so, how many different evolutions and 'agreements' and 'disagreements' and different types of FI goodies, FI breakdowns etc. I thought this was 'game over' at least twice only to be surprised by another option showing up a couple of runs later. I think we just have to be patient and keep watchin.

Slashermcguirk

derekon wrote: »

Fully agree Gonzo, I would rather 12oC at this stage than be in this limbo land between cold and mild air. Just goes to show how the east of Britain can get plastered while Ireland does not get a flake

D

Britain plastered, 5cm is hardly a plastering in fairness!! I have heard from people in London that most of the snow melted after the snow showers. Doesn't seem we are missing out on much

nacho libre

the ecm at 216- 240 screams potential. pay little heed to the run for now, but if it pops over a series of days take note.

also of interest is the last frame of the gfs, notice the arctic heights, and a vortex on its knees, that all suggests height would build towards Greenland from there.

so certainly things to be positive. Remember Derekon you can never turn your back on snow, as a met eireann radio forecaster famously once said

maquiladora

fontenoy7 wrote: »

The only places in Ireland likely to get 'plastered' in Ireland anyway is the East and North and North-West and that has never ever changed. The South and West never experience severe snowstorms like Eastern and northern areas. It is too mild or too removed from weather fronts.

The biggest recorded snowfall in Ireland was in the south in 1917.

There were 10-foot high drifts in villages right on the south coast in 1947.

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

the ecm at 216- 240 screams potential. pay little heed to the run for now, but if it pops over a series of days take note.

also of interest is the last frame of the gfs, notice the arctic heights, and a vortex on its knees, that all suggests height would build towards Greenland from there.

so certainly things to be positive. Remember Derekon you can never turn your back on snow, as a met eireann radio forecaster famously once said

Could be the models starting to pick up on the second phase of the SSW effect?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Could be the models starting to pick up on the second phase of the SSW effect?

Hopefully, keeping an eye on the NW strat thread, no real update there today though

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

Maybe everybody stopped looking at the ECM after 144 but in FI it shows that it's possible that we may only have to wait a few more days before we have another chance, with no real 'mild' breakdown at all in between.

I still think we will get lucky this winter and I've been saying this for at least a month now (even before any mention of the SSW) There has been remarkable similarities with 1947 up to now, while it's unlikely to be as bad good as '47 I think we will see blocking get stronger to the NE for the rest of the month and into Feb. I'm more optimistic than pessimistic at the moment.
* I think any "mild" breakdowns will be temporary and are unlikely to get as far as eastern England,

pistolpetes11

Look at that Arctic high ,

Hight's building too

pistolpetes11

There is your SSW at work now