LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

oisingeogho

As I saw a date of around the 15th of Jan was the approx time that the SSW would start to show in the models. Looking forward to the models over the next few days so.

stephenjmcd

can someone link my the ECM charts, please and thanks

steveLFC24

stephenjmcd wrote: »

can someone link my the ECM charts, please and thanks

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

stephenjmcd

steveLFC24 wrote: »

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

cheers, got rid of the bookmark by accident

maquiladora

fontenoy7 wrote: »

Look,

I am not getting into a snow fight here. All I am saying is that meaningful snow in the South or west is extremely rare. I left Dublin on 24 December 2010 to go home to Killarney. I left my house in west Dublin - Blanchardstown at 8 am and it was was - 11 in the car that particular morning - exceptionally low I know and there was about 30-40 cm of snow in the estate. It had been snowing for over two weeks on and off.

When I arrived in Killarney it was cold but there was not a flake of snow to be seen - no snow cover at all, just some frost. That says it all and the same applies to the rest of the south and south west.

Yep, it's more rare in the south/west alright. The east gets a lot of snow from showers due to the Irish Sea. But if you're looking for a major snow event then the south is well suited to that as long as the air is cold enough and the jetstream is forcing lows to pass south of Ireland, the precipitation on the north of the lows spreads into the south and falls as frontal snow instead of rain. It doesn't happen very often, but when it does its very significant.

Trotter

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, it's more rare in the south/west alright. The east gets a lot of snow from showers due to the Irish Sea. But if you're looking for a major snow event then the south is well suited to that as long as the air is cold enough and the jetstream is forcing lows to pass south of Ireland, the precipitation on the north of the lows spreads into the south and falls as frontal snow instead of rain. It doesn't happen very often, but when it does its very significant.

Is this a potential outcome under the current setup?

chilipepper

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, it's more rare in the south/west alright. The east gets a lot of snow from showers due to the Irish Sea. But if you're looking for a major snow event then the south is well suited to that as long as the air is cold enough and the jetstream is forcing lows to pass south of Ireland, the precipitation on the north of the lows spreads into the south and falls as frontal snow instead of rain. It doesn't happen very often, but when it does its very significant.

+1 on that, we have seen some very heavy falls of snow in the west and kerry see's plenty of snow but i do agree that the east is in a much more favorably position.

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Is this a potential outcome under the current setup?

It has shown up a few times out in FI on some of the models over the past week or so.

Daniel2590

Scandi high trying to split the vortex around +138

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

It has shown up a few times out in FI on some of the models over the past week or so.

Some might even call it a trend :eek:

maquiladora

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Some might even call it a trend :eek:

In fairness though, just about every option under the sun has shown up in FI recently. :pac:

oterra

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I still think we will get lucky this winter and I've been saying this for at least a month now (even before any mention of the SSW) There has been remarkable similarities with 1947 up to now, while it's unlikely to be as bad good as '47 I think we will see blocking get stronger to the NE for the rest of the month and into Feb. I'm more optimistic than pessimistic at the moment.
* I think any "mild" breakdowns will be temporary and are unlikely to get as far as eastern England,

Totally agree with you Elmer. As far as I can remember you called last winters drab performance in december '11. (correct me if I'm wrong).
So I'm a believer!!

maquiladora

I'm not a fan of these snow forecast charts because they can change a lot on every run and are not reliable in marginal situations.

But, just for fun and to improve the mood a bit? Even the big bad GFS gives this for Friday.

Snowmaker

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Some might even call it a trend :eek:

Pete, you may just as well have shouted "All AboOAARRD!!" (for the next roller-coaster ride - destination unknown!)

Birdnuts

Some light snowfall here in Blessington this evening about 90 minutes ago. Gave a covering on cars and a bit on the grass. Not sure if it was forecasted

DominoDub

Winterwatch ..is now on BBC HD ..perfect back ground viewing for "Snow Watch 2013"

Rougies

Birdnuts wrote: »

Some light snowfall here in Blessington this evening about 90 minutes ago. Gave a covering on cars and a bit on the grass. Not sure if it was forecasted

Blessington is at 223m asl so you'll always do a bit better there in marginal situations compared to lower areas.

Birdnuts

Rougies wrote: »

Blessington is at 204m asl so you'll always do a bit better there in marginal situations compared to lower areas.

Aye thats true - could get plastered here this week yet. Had 30cm on the ground in Dec 2010:cool:

Rougies

Birdnuts wrote: »

Aye thats true - could get plastered here this week yet. Had 30cm on the ground in Dec 2010:cool:

Had 31cm here

Yeah you're in a decent position for this week.

Harry Deerpark

Birdnuts wrote: »

Aye thats true - could get plastered here this week yet. Had 30cm on the ground in Dec 2010:cool:

30 cm isn't that much for high ground. We had 27/28 cm (11 inches) at 73 m in 2010.

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Impossible to summarise on twitter but the EC ENS from the 12z run are distinctly cold and blocked. The Atlantic could struggle to 'get in'

Rougies

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

30 cm isn't that much for high ground. We had 27/28 cm (11 inches) at 73 m in 2010.

30cm is a lot for any ground in this country! Even 3cm is a lot compared to the usual 0cm :P

munsterlegend

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Impossible to summarise on twitter but the EC ENS from the 12z run are distinctly cold and blocked. The Atlantic could struggle to 'get in'

It will probably get stuck from the Irish Sea west and remain stationary! Is there any realistic possibility of colder air being shunted further west?

Blizzard 2010

munsterlegend wrote: »

It will probably get stuck from the Irish Sea west and remain stationary!

As it always does:(

maquiladora

12Z ECM mean for day 10 (with more than double the number of ensemble members than the GFS) :



12Z GFS mean for day 10 :

Birdnuts

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

30 cm isn't that much for high ground. We had 27/28 cm (11 inches) at 73 m in 2010.

Blessington is quiet a sheltered spot( surrounded by higher hills) so 30cm ain't bad at all. We are also well inland from the Irish sea streamers.

Harry Deerpark

Rougies wrote: »

30cm is a lot for any ground in this country! Even 3cm is a lot compared to the usual 0cm :P

On average, yeah, but by 2010's standards, I would've expected 40 - 45 cm at higher levels. I remember hearing about a foot-and-a-half of snow down in Wicklow. Not that I was jealous, getting crates beer from point A to point B with those icy roads was a nuisance - we had to walk to the shops most of the time.

Hopefully the Government will be more prepared if 2013 strikes white gold.

Harry Deerpark

Birdnuts wrote: »

Blessington is quiet a sheltered spot( surrounded by higher hills) so 30cm ain't bad at all. We are also well inland from the Irish sea streamers.

Yeah, I see it's on the west side of the mountains, the east side took the brunt.

Daniel2590

Does the GEM take a long time to release the runs? It's been stuck at +144 for nearly an hour now

Rougies

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

Yeah, I see it's on the west side of the mountains, the east side took the brunt.

Exactly, the windward slopes get more due to orographic lift. And 223m isn't all that high anyway, but it certainly helps.