LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Does the GEM take a long time to release the runs? It's been stuck at +144 for nearly an hour now

12Z GEM only goes out ot 144 on Meteociel etc.. There is a place where it goes out a bit further but I can't remember where.

rbelmc

high pressure forecast to become much stronger here in Scandinavia this weekend so a good chance all this cold air here will push westwards towards Ireland.Temps dropping here all the time-down to minus 31 last night in the north of Sweden

Daniel2590

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GEM only goes out ot 144 on Meteociel etc.. There is a place where it goes out a bit further but I can't remember where.

Ah that'd explain it. Thanks :P

Deep Easterly

Rougies wrote: »

And 223m isn't all that high anyway

100m would be considered mountainous around here

delw

So is anyone expecting anything special from the 18z GFS short term or in FI

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

So is any one expecting anything special from the 18z GFS short term or in FI

Not really expecting anything dramatic. It would be nice to see an improvement on the last run. But the thing I like about watching the models roll out (especially at a time like this) is that you never really know what you'll see.

flanzer

Evelyn going with rain, rain and more rain. All we seem to be doing is providing Britain with ammo for it's snowfest. I hope they remember this *shakes fist*

sumo12

Well that's a kick in the nuts from Evelyn. Rain and sleet. West wins again. Crushed. Gutted. Deflated

Rougies

pauldry

Yes the rollercoaster is at a dip.

munsterlegend

sumo12 wrote: »

Well that's a kick in the nuts from Evelyn. Rain and sleet. West wins again. Crushed. Gutted. Deflated

She also mentioned a lot of uncertainty yet and to check in daily for updates.

sumo12

pauldry wrote: »

Yes the rollercoaster is at a dip.

And I feel like puking over the side of it...

cotton

Evelyn just burst my snowbubble. If anything falls, it'll be slush before we get a chance to enjoy it.

sumo12

munsterlegend wrote: »

She also mentioned a lot of uncertainty yet and to check in daily for updates.

I think that amounts to a hug. Thanks munsterlegend

dacogawa

Little bit better than it was on the 12h run

Rougies

fred funk }{ wrote: »

Show's over folks.

It has only just started.

dacogawa

Rougies wrote: »

It has only just started.

Too right Rougies! there's still at least 45 days of model watching & hoping!

Lagoona Blue

Snowmaker wrote: »

With all these ups/downs, and the refresh-page rate increasing... I think it's important for the health & well-being of everyone here to take a moment away from the charts/models, reflect, and pray...

This sums things up nicely. Brilliant

Elmer Blooker

sumo12 wrote: »

Well that's a kick in the nuts from Evelyn. Rain and sleet. West wins again. Crushed. Gutted. Deflated

I'm not that disappointed by Evelyn's forecast, even behind that Atlantic front we remain in a cold se'ly with only 3c forecast for Saturday - we're still in the game in my opinion.
So the UK will get plastered, we'll just have to live with it the same way we watch them get up to 30c in summer when we get our usual cloudy 15c!

Deank

MT just posted, there is hope:D

UPDATE _ Mon 14 Jan 2013 _ 9:45 pm
_____________________________________

ALERT for possible snowfall in parts of south-central Ireland Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is currently more of a "watch" situation as conditions appear very close to marginal for elevations below 250m ... the main reason for concern is that the precipitation, which is likely to start in most places as rain or sleet, will be extending into the late overnight period when temperatures at higher levels cool down slightly and a marginal situation can produce snow, but my thinking at present is that the snow will develop mostly on higher slopes above 300m around midnight then start to appear lower down as the night goes on, so that by the end of the event there could be wet snow falling closer to sea level and accumulations at elevations above 200m, in the precip zone extending across central and southeast counties. Locations further west will not get cold enough for this transition except on higher summits in Kerry. Locations further north and east will be outside the precip zone, but in parts of Connacht the rain will move through before midnight and that also reduces the risk of snowfall despite some favourable elevations.

Perhaps of more interest to many, Friday is looking somewhat more promising for snow in eastern Ireland as the stronger return of Atlantic mild air seems timed to run into a wedge of colder air rotating around what's left of the mid-week system, and that stronger frontal event will have higher moisture levels so there is a potential for 5-15 cm snowfalls, once again, elevation may become a limiting factor.

whitebriar

I have bad news for ye,I'm joining the nothing much to see here camp.
Mainly a bit of flukey wet snow in some places,especially on hills but nothing to get too excited about.
Mostly cold rain or sleet.

We can but wait to see if proper blocking sets up into the end of the month and february.
I know this is the ramping thread,but I just don't see enough cold at all layers seeping through.
If it's not cold enough in an easterly source for snow in west wales,it doesn't auger well.

I thought tonights 12z gfs looked implausible with that daughter huge vortex heading into the atlantic but I've not had the chance to read others views on it,so maybe something different will help the snow potential later in the week but I doubt it.

Anyhow,no models for me for at least a week.Will check back then to see if anything interesting is in the offing.
It's time for the weather to either shit or get off the pot!
Bye for now and happy hunting!

doccy

Rougies wrote: »

It has only just started.

image sharing

Larbre34

Ive been saying nothing to see for 2 weeks, however as I have an early flight from DUB on Friday I have a funny feeling the weather goods will spite me on Thursday night and give us a dumping. This thing will be so knife edge that 10kms and 100 meters could be the margin

nacho libre

whitebriar wrote: »

I have bad news for ye,I'm joining the nothing much to see here camp.
Mainly a bit of flukey wet snow in some places,especially on hills but nothing to get too excited about.
Mostly cold rain or sleet.

We can but wait to see if proper blocking sets up into the end of the month and february.
I know this is the ramping thread,but I just don't see enough cold at all layers seeping through.
If it's not cold enough in an easterly source for snow in west wales,it doesn't auger well.

I thought tonights 12z gfs looked implausible with that daughter huge vortex heading into the atlantic but I've not had the chance to read others views on it,so maybe something different will help the snow potential later in the week but I doubt it.

Anyhow,no models for me for at least a week.Will check back then to see if anything interesting is in the offing.
It's time for the weather to either shit or get off the pot!
Bye for now and happy hunting!

i see what you're doing here. we all know you'll be back sooner than that;)

maquiladora

18Z is an upgrade. The east could get a lot of snow there Friday/Saturday.

Front seems to stall for about 24 hours and looks like conditions would be on the right side for the east/north east. Just how it looks there, could well downgrade completely by then of course. Would probably be followed by rain so would be messy I'd say.

hotwhiskey

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z is an upgrade. The east could get a lot of snow there Friday/Saturday.

Its a very fine line Maq.....But theses situations are always the one's to bring a big surprise...

Deank

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z is an upgrade. The east could get a lot of snow there Friday/Saturday.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z is an upgrade. The east could get a lot of snow there Friday/Saturday.

Front seems to stall for about 24 hours and looks like conditions would be on the right side for the east/north east. Just just how it looks there, could well downgrade completely by then of course. Would probably be followed by rain so would be messy I'd say.

By tomorrow it will be the south/west.. We can but dream!

JJJJNR

Sleet falling in Laragh.

JanuarySnowstor

18z definite upgrade
We need more tomorrow for Cork to see snow