LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Welcome back Su?

No. Another pilot.

pauldry

wouldnt say the possibility of snow is entirely over but its been dashed.

Still because of the uncertainty anything could happen and I wouldnt be surprised to see the North and East get at least a few hours of snow.

Its over for the West and South

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

No. Another pilot.

Didnt think Su flew a Boeing 757! Haha.

dacogawa

I tell you what, there might not be snow but it's bloody freezing out there! went out for 5 mins to take a pic of Jupiter & it took about 10 mins for my hands to feel semi normal again...

KizzyMonster

I want the fluffy white stuff

Elmer Blooker

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So is it game over this week anyways for snow in the east coast

Still uncertain. Evelyn C, after the nine o'clock news seemed confident that a band of rain would cross the country on Friday but after the late news there was no mention of the band of rain and the "uncertain outlook" was back on the agenda. No one really knows at the moment.

Shamrock841

mayfly757 wrote: »

TAF
TAF EIDW 142300Z 1500/1524 28010KT 9999 FEW020 PROB30 1506/1509 2000 BR SCT002 BECMG 1512/1514 VRB03KT BECMG 1520/1522 13007KT PROB30 TEMPO 1523/1524 5000 -RASN BKN014=

EICK 142304Z 1500/1524 VRB04KT 9999 FEW004 BKN025 TEMPO 1500/1508 3000 -SHSN BR BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1500/1506 0700 SHSN BKN001


Nice to look at, its actually EGPD's TAF though

delw

mayfly757 wrote: »

TAF
TAF EIDW 142300Z 1500/1524 28010KT 9999 FEW020 PROB30 1506/1509 2000 BR SCT002 BECMG 1512/1514 VRB03KT BECMG 1520/1522 13007KT PROB30 TEMPO 1523/1524 5000 -RASN BKN014=

Shamrock841 wrote: »

EICK 142304Z 1500/1524 VRB04KT 9999 FEW004 BKN025 TEMPO 1500/1508 3000 -SHSN BR BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1500/1506 0700 SHSN BKN001

Thanks guys but it might help poster's as to what exactly we should be looking for/ reading in the TAF's

Celly Smunt

delw wrote: »

Thanks guys but it might help poster's as to what exactly we should be looking for/ reading in the TAF's

in hoping it means "crap load of snow hitting Ireland dude"

cyclops999

Just in home roads around Athlone sheets of ice not a nice night to be driving

Shamrock841

EICK 142304Z 1500/1524 VRB04KT 9999 FEW004 BKN025 TEMPO 1500/1508 3000 -SHSN BR BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1500/1506 0700 SHSN BKN001

A TAF is terminal aerodrome forecast, Eick is Cork airport. 142304z means the taf was issued on the 14th at 2304z and is valid from 00-24 on the 15th. VRB04KT is variable wind at 4kts, 9999 is visibility of 10km or more, FEW004 is clouds few at 400ft, BKN025 is cloud broken at 2500ft, TEMPO 1500/1508 3000 -SHSN BR BKN004 means temporarily between 00 and 08 visibility will be 3000 metres light showers of snow, mist and cloud broken 400ft. PROB30 TEMPO 1500 1506 700 SHSN BKN 001, 30 percent chance that temporarily between 00-06 visibility will be 700metres in moderate showers of snow and cloud broken at 100ft.

The above TAF is for Aberdeen airport (EGPD), a TAF with +SN (heavy snow) would be a dream come true

Pangea

Not exactly great for cold for anywhere west of Britain going by this forecast, but they look to be leaning towards snowy period for February, although colder in east again. If the cold stops in East England again this year it will be hard to take!

MET UK Updated: 1545 on Mon 14 Jan 2013
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Largely dry and cold. Wintry showers continuing for some eastern areas. Breezy with rain or snow for Northern Ireland on Thursday and other western areas on Friday. Hard overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Monday 28 Jan 2013:

Some uncertainty in the details of the forecast, however through the weekend there should be a good deal of dry and bright weather, but with the risk of snow showers in the east and southeast. More unsettled in the west with spells of rain and snow, which may spread further east on Sunday. Cold or very cold with widespread frost, and the risk of ice. Probably turning more unsettled thereafter, with spells of rain, heavy at times in the west and southwest, and some hill snow, which could fall to lower levels at times in the north and east. Best of drier weather in eastern areas. Frost overnight, and most areas staying cold or rather cold, although perhaps occasionally near normal in the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2013:

Colder than average conditions are favoured across many parts of the UK, especially in the north and east. Whilst there is no strong signal for rainfall patterns through this period, drier than average conditions are more likely in the north, whereas the south may have near or even slightly above average rainfall. The frequency of snow events through this period may be more than experienced so far this winter.

hotwhiskey

Looking good and with heights building over Greenland and Iceland pity its 144hrs as I think F.I is somewhere in between 72 and 96hrs.

hotwhiskey

ECM 144hrs



UKMO 144hrs



GEM 144hrs



JMA 144hrs



Surprising that there is most module agreement this far out. Just look at the high trying to build to our north and northwest this is great to see the pieces are starting to fall into place.

RazorT

I presume these charts are what are giving rise to MT's prediction of a storm event on Sunday/Monday.

but all of that pales in comparison to the potential for weather mayhem on Sunday as various models depict a very deep low heading in from the Atlantic on a path that will invite that colder air to get involved again. Whether this turns out to be heavy rain, a nasty mix or a snowstorm depends on various factors yet to be clarified on the models, but anything is possible and if this storm were to veer north, very strong winds that are currently heading for Iberia and southern France could also hit southern coastal areas. As it stands, rather brisk east winds could develop and with temperatures only 3-5 C the snow line would likely be not far above where a lot of people live at about 300m, so any slight changes would imply a wintry storm. This becomes almost a given for central and northern Britain given the depth of cold air back to the north and east.

maw368

It was snowing heavy for a few hours in South Wales last night. But I am sure I also saw lightning, is it normal to see lightning while snowing in the UK?

gbee

maw368 wrote: »

It was snowing heavy for a few hours in South Wales last night. But I am sure I also saw lightning, is it normal to see lightning while snowing in the UK?

Ever heard of snow lightning? It causes friction just like rain does. It is less common than with rain, but not exceptionally so.

Supercell

Or Thundersnow (dun dun dunnnnnnnn!!!) as we like to call it here. Heard/saw some of that in 2010 when I was living in Ringsend. My two favourite weather types together - awesome!

Bejubby

After mtc's forecast i dont know if i can take this much longer.
Drained of alot of energy just reading alone.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I am hoping we should start seeing shifts in the models from today, that would line up with the strat forecast, don't lose faith people !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Also the lads over on NW believe that the warming will sort out that PV over Canada

Elmer Blooker

at +96 the Atlantic shunts everything east but at +120 the block is back?
Mad stuff?
See for yourself, totally unconvincing if you ask me.
But not really surprising with FI still at +72 as it has been for the past week or more.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

cherryghost

t|nt|n wrote: »

Also the lads over on NW believe that the warming will sort out that PV over Canada

It may do. Temp anomalies have been stretching over Canada and US for the past 4 days now iirc

Conmaicne Mara

cyclops999 wrote: »

Just in home roads around Athlone sheets of ice not a nice night to be driving

Are you surprised with your location

cherryghost

A bit OT, but my Great Uncle was interviewed a few years ago regarding the Snowfall of 47 amongst other things.

Glancing out his bedroom window on the evening of Monday 24 February 1947, seventeen-year-old Francie McFadden shivered. The penetrating Arctic winds had been blowing for several weeks. That night, the first powdery flakes began to fall. By the morning, the world – or Ireland at any rate – was utterly unrecognisable. Every field, road and rooftop was submerged under a thick blanket of snow. Known to posterity as ‘The Big Snow’ or ‘The Blizzard’, this was the greatest snowfall of the 20th century, lasting from Monday through until midday on Wednesday. The freezing temperatures solidified the surface and it was to be an astonishing forty days before the snows began to melt.

‘People said Ireland was finished’, says Francie. ‘It was pure black frost, night and day constant, and the snow was as high as the hedges. A lot of the houses around here were backed up to the roof’.[ii] For old-timers, those bone-chilling weeks marked a dreadful era and many succumbed to the temperatures. Amongst the dead were two colleagues of Francie’s father who were caught in a snowdrift while returning from the bogs. They were found four days later with the bags of turf frozen on their backs.

But it was also a time of collaboration and resourcefulness. Francie recalls how the quick-thinking bakers and milkmen of Sligo constructed sleighs from old barn doors and attached them to their donkeys and horses in order to supply their snow-besieged customers. Similar sleighs were used to carry coffins, although sometimes it was easier to find six men to carry the coffins up the railway tracks.

For the younger generations, the snow also provided much entertainment. When the seventeen springs of Bellinascarrow Lake were found to have frozen to a depth of nine feet, a group of young lads took the shoes off their horses, loaded their carts up with several tons of sawdust from the Ballymote mills and poured it all over the icy surface. ‘And didn’t they set up a stage on the lake with poles and lights and big heavy batteries!’, marvels Francie. ‘They had bands and done dancing on it and the music could be heard above Boyle.’ One foolhardy gent won a whopping £30 when he drove across the lake on a BSA motorbike. [iii]

Wonder if we will ever see the likes of that in our lifetime. He's a gas character though

Deep Easterly

Thought this was a bit weird this morning on the ECM run, the blue area sorta looks like a shape of a dogs head barking at Ireland between 2 6 hour frames



Model watching overdose beginning to set in maybe?

cherryghost

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Thought this was a bit weird this morning on the ECM run, the blue area sorta looks like a shape of a dogs head barking at Ireland between 2 6 hour frames



Model watching overdose beginning to set in maybe?

It's the Atlantic biting at our tails

tomcosgrave

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Model watching overdose beginning to set in maybe?

You're a great lad Deep and I really appreciate all the fine work you do on this forum...but maybe it's time to go and lie down in a darkened room for a couple of days!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

THis is not the run you are looking for

pad199207

Latest BBC Weather Bulletin showing a nice clump of snow over E Ireland this Fri/Sat