LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Things changing on every run, but just taking the 06Z GFS as it is.

Showing a 952mb low to our northwest on Sunday. Winds gusting 30-40kts. Uppers cold enough to support the precipitation falling as snow, sleet & freezing rain.

munsterlegend

Are the bits over cork rain Maq?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are the bits over cork rain Maq?

The grey symbol is just cloudcover.

Larbre34

Whats the origin of that Sunday Low? Wouldn't those uppers be very unlikely for an atlantic low? Is is that the polar front will have sunk well south by then?

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

The grey symbol is just cloudcover.

Oh right - just wondering as the uppers were -5! anyway not expecting any cold down here unless there is a big move of the cold air west.

maquiladora

Larbre34 wrote: »

Whats the origin of that Sunday Low? Wouldn't those uppers be very unlikely for an atlantic low? Is is that the polar front will have sunk well south by then?

It's part of the remains of the polar vortex, not a typical Atlantic low. Cold air taking a long voyage from Canada.

Slashermcguirk

been reading loads of the comments on sky website. Apparently the amounts of snow are totally exaggerated in the UK. There are even people in the east / north east area saying that most of it has been melting away within hours of falling. Mate of mine in London said there is next to nothing over there. Sky complete exaggerating snowfall amount as usual. At least BBC dont really see it as news

I know we only got one snow shower but the exaggerations of snow in UK are unreal

Larbre34

maquiladora wrote: »

It's part of the remains of the polar vortex, not a typical Atlantic low. Cold air taking a long voyage from Canada.

Now that's the type of thing that's very encouraging, movement towards the setup you were showing charts for yesterday Maq where the cold sources begin to join up and establish. A great trend, opening the door for much more serious potential along the lines of the various winter forecasts for late Jan/early Feb. Even an old pessimist like me would sit up and take more notice now

maquiladora

A question for D.E. maybe. When was the last time we got 520 dam air from a westerly?

whitebriar

Must not look
Must not look

Looked... Blast

Nice dusting of snow on croghan mtn 6 miles inland from Arklow this morning.
I also have a beautiful view of lugnaquilla from the yard here and its absolutely plastered in snow.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

A question for D.E. maybe. When was the last time we got 520 dam air from a westerly?

What is the required dam line again?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

munsterlegend wrote: »

What is the required dam line again?

528 I believe

tylercollins

528DAM and below for an increasing chance of seeing snowfall, preferable values of 522 and below.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/2237-guide-todam-lines/

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

What is the required dam line again?

528 is usually seen as a guideline.

whitebriar

munsterlegend wrote: »

What is the required dam line again?

sub 528.
522 would be perfect
That's 520.
That's unreal ...it won't happen like that,but then sub -10c daytime surface temps in November 2010 we thought were impossible too.

Speak Now

I'd be amazed if the dam line remained that low by the time it reaches the west coast.

maquiladora

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I'd be amazed if the dam line remained that low by the time it reaches the west coast.

It's all down to how the GFS exactly handles the polar vortex lobe. At 120 hours out its unlikely to verify. Interesting charts to see though.

whitebriar

maquiladora wrote: »

It's all down to how the GFS exactly handles the polar vortex lobe. At 120 hours out its unlikely to verify. Interesting charts to see though.

I see john hammond has a good piece on model flux due to strat warming on the BBC site.
I guess its official now,its the cause as we all have been reading of the displaced vortices and the south south east jet.

How long for is the question and is an eventual outbreak of polar outbreak here inevitable?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895

icesnowfrost

whitebriar wrote: »

Must not look
Must not look

Looked... Blast

Nice dusting of snow on croghan mtn 6 miles inland from Arklow this morning.
I also have a beautiful view of lugnaquilla from the yard here and its absolutely plastered in snow.

Some pics plz. It's not that I don't believe u coz I do. But it would be nice to see some pics to give us all a nice boost in confidence that we might get some snow our selfs

dopolahpec

Bizarrely those mental GFS charts above showing sub 528 DAM lines well into Ireland on Sunday from the west, would suggest, the slightest possibility that it will not be the UK, but in fact Ireland that will get the monster snowstorm. Can they be believed?

whitebriar

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Some pics plz. It's not that I don't believe u coz I do. But it would be nice to see some pics to give us all a nice boost in confidence that we might get some snow our selfs

sadly my phone camera is not good enough to picture Lug.
Its visible through binoculars with what looks like a few inches up there.

Do ya know what my answer to the question in my last post is?

Frankly do ya know,I'd be surprised if we all didn't see something eventually in the next couple of weeks

gbee

whitebriar wrote: »

sadly my phone camera is not good enough to picture Lug.

I actually got snow warnings on my phone, a few days ago, sadly, the very next update it had none and has none for the coming week / 11 days.

TeaCup2

Looking out my window at 6 this morning I thought I saw a few cm of snow, sadly it was just a really thick frost covering everything, I live in hope though

Larbre34

gbee wrote: »

I actually got snow warnings on my phone, a few days ago, sadly, the very next update it had none and has none for the coming week / 11 days.

From which model generated no human input US service would that be? Given the uncertainty from the European national weather services and that FI is now about 144hrs you might as well use a dart board with all potential outcomes to give you the 11 day outlook

fontenoy7

Lugnquilla always has snow on it even in late Spring. It is over 900 metres high (3, 039 feet) and is the most snowcapped mountain in Ireland by far. First of all it is in the East so in the colder part of the country and secondly it is one of the highest elevations in Ireland.:):):):)

Larbre34

MetÉ have updated the wording of the Sunday outlook to reflect a more snowy outcome, and from the setup it could be a dumping if the margins are right, at least for Leinster and Ulster.

Could be an interesting flight back, or no flight at all, from Bristol to Dublin at 2200 Sunday night!

irish1967

snowstreams

fontenoy7 wrote: »

Lugnquilla always has snow on it even in late Spring. It is over 900 metres high (3, 039 feet) and is the most snowcapped mountain in Ireland by far. First of all it is in the East so in the colder part of the country and secondly it is one of the highest elevations in Ireland.:):):):)

What about slieve donard in Down?

It's nearly as high as lugnaquilla but is further north and east.

Speak Now

Is that a pic of Maquiladora :P

magoko101

snowstreams wrote: »

What about slieve donard in Down?

Interested in SD myself... due to climb it next weekend.