LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Mint Sauce

Weather warning for NI on friday on the met office website. Coverage area extends over the eastern part of ireland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-6.49&lat=54.86&fcTime=1358164860

fontenoy7

Musicman2000 wrote: »

its so close, just like last winter, would make you laugh how we always miss out by a few 100 miles

Just looking at racing in england....not a scrap of snow anywhere at any of the venues. It really is an eastern scenario but mostly confined yo high ground over there.

Slashermcguirk

Totally agree, Dublin and in particular Wicklow mountains are unbelievable for snow depths. The amount of times you even hear on radio the sally gap is unpassable on days where snow is not even mentioned in forecasts ! A mate of mine was in Wicklow Mountains around December 2010 and the photos were unbelievable, snow was literally up to his chest in places.

I would say they rival the Scottish Highlands at times in terms of depth of snow. Back in November just gone I could have sworn i saw the hill tops covered in snow on a day that was not even that cold

Gonzo

dont think were gonna see much snow next 2 days but things between Friday night and next Tuesday are certainly looking far more hopefull, it's going to be much colder than it is right now for a start.

On another note im surprised that Sky news went to such extremes convincing people of almost emergency conditions in England, I believed it myself as I dont watch the other news channels. Very unprofessional of sky. A few days ago in the paper section they also showed the Daily Mail with one of their typical 'worst snow for 40 years scenario' headlines, and the newsreader read it like as if it was gonna happen.

seamus

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Totally agree, Dublin and in particular Wicklow mountains are unbelievable for snow depths. The amount of times you even hear on radio the sally gap is unpassable on days where snow is not even mentioned in forecasts !

To be fair, the problem with the Sally Gap is that all of the roads in and out of it have steep gradients, so even 3 or 4 inches of snow will create enormous difficulty for most vehicles. It's also very exposed, very windy, so any snowfall will reduce visibility massively and you're liable to run off the road.

Speak Now

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I remember in 2010 in Drogheda we had 8 inches of snow and nearly 2 feet in drifts will we ever see it again ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

You talk about it like it was 50 years ago

force eleven

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png. Cold next week after dark over the snowfields...

bb1234567

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Big upgrades this evening from both the gfs and ukmo
Could be quite a snowy weekend yet!!
Dublin looks primed

For real ?!? :eek::eek:
*dies*

snowstreams

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Totally agree, Dublin and in particular Wicklow mountains are unbelievable for snow depths. The amount of times you even hear on radio the sally gap is unpassable on days where snow is not even mentioned in forecasts ! A mate of mine was in Wicklow Mountains around December 2010 and the photos were unbelievable, snow was literally up to his chest in places.

I would say they rival the Scottish Highlands at times in terms of depth of snow. Back in November just gone I could have sworn i saw the hill tops covered in snow on a day that was not even that cold

The dublin/wicklow mountains do get massive dumpings every 4/5 years or so. I remember a massive dumping in 2001 during the foot and mouth.
And again in 2005. You could walk over the fence at kippure, so over 2mtr drifts. And then feb 2009 was great, so was jan 2010.
2011 was great at low levels but there wasnt much difference in depth in the mountains. Streamers dont seem to produce massive snow in the mountains.
Frontal snow really brings massive snow to the mountains.
Im sure a few other mountains in ireland are as good but wicklow has the best/highest access roads in the country.

maquiladora

Parts of the UK would be buried in the snow to the end of the month if the GFS was right, lol. And I only say the end of the month because thats as far as the GFS goes.

mayfly757

TAF
TAF EIDW 151100Z 1512/1612 27008KT 9999 FEW020 BECMG 1513/1515 VRB03KT BECMG 1519/1521 13010KT TEMPO 1600/1612 4000 -RA -RASN BKN009 OVC018=

ZX7R

After looking at todays vearious modle runs does anyone think the SSW is starting to feed in to the modle runs,as we seem to be getting cold from both sides

kennyb3

maquiladora wrote: »

Day 8. The cold kept fighting back on this run, just some milder blips. -12 uppers almost reaching Scotland.

The problem with that is that it's just one small parcel and the atlantic will likely push back. What we really need is more cold following swiftly behind those -12 uppers. We need a much greater push west as no doubt it will gradually be diluted moved eastwards and again we'll end up on the wrong side of the boundary.

A nice upgrade in that run anyway

M.T. Cranium

I would rate the chances of significant snow and cold before mid-February at about 80 to 90 per cent -- the GFS 12z run looks colder the further out it goes to 16d and precision at that time scale is poor so with only slight changes we could start to see some definite, nowhere near marginal synoptics. I expect the eventual outcome will be 2-4 weeks of cold on a scale similar to late 2010 and other epic periods in the past. Just seems to be close to inevitable as the Atlantic jet is clearly starting to sink towards a much lower track than it took most of December. Key will be when higher pressures in the 1035-50 mb range start to appear in western Russia as this will intensify the battleground scenario already in place and give the cold air the upper hand. Meanwhile even by Sunday or Monday we could be looking at snow if some models are right, awaiting the 12z ECM with interest as it showed a lot of potential although just on the rain side of the tipping point (for Sunday) on the 00z run. So far other model trend is south of its track. Would point to events around 24-27 Jan as the breaking point for this pattern and a stronger cold air mass forming in Scandinavia. Would not rule out a 2-3 day mild spell as a necessity for pattern reload and to clear the Atlantic of residual warmth.

Rebelbrowser

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would rate the chances of significant snow and cold before mid-February at about 80 to 90 per cent -- the GFS 12z run looks colder the further out it goes to 16d and precision at that time scale is poor so with only slight changes we could start to see some definite, nowhere near marginal synoptics. I expect the eventual outcome will be 2-4 weeks of cold on a scale similar to late 2010 and other epic periods in the past. Just seems to be close to inevitable as the Atlantic jet is clearly starting to sink towards a much lower track than it took most of December. Key will be when higher pressures in the 1035-50 mb range start to appear in western Russia as this will intensify the battleground scenario already in place and give the cold air the upper hand. Meanwhile even by Sunday or Monday we could be looking at snow if some models are right, awaiting the 12z ECM with interest as it showed a lot of potential although just on the rain side of the tipping point (for Sunday) on the 00z run. So far other model trend is south of its track. Would point to events around 24-27 Jan as the breaking point for this pattern and a stronger cold air mass forming in Scandinavia. Would not rule out a 2-3 day mild spell as a necessity for pattern reload and to clear the Atlantic of residual warmth.

You ramper you MT!

Ps - your lrf is proving, em, not too bad. any idea of this weekends lotto numbers?

pistolpetes11

People its not a measuring contest.

This is a ramping thread for the Irish weather as a whole ,

I have deleted a load of posts cause there completely off topic

little bess

OMG. Was about to give up on all snow,this has been a real rollercoaster lads!

Conmaicne Mara

From a UK site, might interest some (or not) on the snow situation over there:

http://farmingforum.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=79698

kennyb3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would rate the chances of significant snow and cold before mid-February at about 80 to 90 per cent -- the GFS 12z run looks colder the further out it goes to 16d and precision at that time scale is poor so with only slight changes we could start to see some definite, nowhere near marginal synoptics. I expect the eventual outcome will be 2-4 weeks of cold on a scale similar to late 2010 and other epic periods in the past. Just seems to be close to inevitable as the Atlantic jet is clearly starting to sink towards a much lower track than it took most of December. Key will be when higher pressures in the 1035-50 mb range start to appear in western Russia as this will intensify the battleground scenario already in place and give the cold air the upper hand. Meanwhile even by Sunday or Monday we could be looking at snow if some models are right, awaiting the 12z ECM with interest as it showed a lot of potential although just on the rain side of the tipping point (for Sunday) on the 00z run. So far other model trend is south of its track. Would point to events around 24-27 Jan as the breaking point for this pattern and a stronger cold air mass forming in Scandinavia. Would not rule out a 2-3 day mild spell as a necessity for pattern reload and to clear the Atlantic of residual warmth.

Maq, do you hack his account?

Seriously though MT thanks for the update.:)

maquiladora

kennyb3 wrote: »

Maq, do you hack his account?

Seriously though MT thanks for the update.:)

Nope. But I do agree with it.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

A question for D.E. maybe. When was the last time we got 520 dam air from a westerly?

I wouldn't be overly sure Maq , but would guess, going by no more than weather conditions here, that it would be no more further back than last winter as I do recall a number snow falls here in the west from a westerly source similar to that set up, (which were nothing great)

On researching old newspaper articles the last couple of years though, It would seem that January 1984 was a month that something similar to the chart above would have happened a lot. A lot of snow fell over the northern half of Ireland especially that month in what was a very cold but predominantly westerly airflow throughout.

chilipepper

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Just looking at the radar, that precipitation is barely advancing eastward. Any reports of it being wintry in nature?

Nothing but rain here in clare anyway.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Just looking at the radar, that precipitation is barely advancing eastward. Any reports of it being wintry in nature?

Not on the Netweather Extra radar

compsys

It's hovering close to 0 Celsius in Dublin at the moment with a dew point just below freezing.

One would have to think that the chances of seeing some snow from this, in the East at least, are reasonable.

Of course, temps could rise rapidly as the front approaches but there could be some leading edge snow. Of course, the precipitation may not even make it to the East either.

JanuarySnowstor

Cracking ECM tonight out to 96hrs
Snowfall looking more and more likely for the wkd
Marginal stuff throughout but favoured spots look like seeing a serious dump
Overall, everything has upgraded hugely today and we are now on the cusp of something special
Expect the Met to up the ante from now on

leahyl

According to met.ie it's -1 in Dublin now!! :-O very early to be that cold isn't it?

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Cracking ECM tonight out to 96hrs
Snowfall looking more and more likely for the wkd
Marginal stuff throughout but favoured spots look like seeing a serious dump
Overall, everything has upgraded hugely today and we are now on the cusp of something special
Expect the Met to up the ante from now on

JS what are our chances down here?

dacogawa

That's some change between 48h & 72h on the ECM!

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

JS what are our chances down here?

I think good.
We need the low on Sunday to properly undercut and bring in a Northeasterly feed. If that happens we actually become prime spot for heavy snow.
We must lose the onshore wind but we are almost there
As always though more runs needed

Edit: As for the 120hrs storm :eek: (from a wind pov)

bb1234567

I actually think I'm gonna die. Somebody help me aghhhh adskjfgw;ofwgfjlbabvn;knlqo