LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

H2UMrsRobinson

Words like epic and inevitable from MT !! - I think I wee'd myself just a little when I read that update. But I've been here before so will keep my head for just a little longer (not easy though)

JanuarySnowstor

ECM @144hrs borderline blizzard though uppers are wrong side of marginal FOR NOW!!

Expect confused Met Eireann forecasts tonight with undertones of disruptive snowfall being a possibility

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would rate the chances of significant snow and cold before mid-February at about 80 to 90 per cent

Vanolder

No to snow.






BANNED FOR TROLLING

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ECM @144hrs borderline blizzard though uppers are wrong side of marginal FOR NOW!!

Expect confused Met Eireann forecasts tonight with undertones of disruptive snowfall being a possibility

Is saturday/sunday a possibility or more next week? seems like the Atlantic is heading south..

JanuarySnowstor

At 168hrs we are well into FI and surrounded by cold
Positives a plenty tonight.
I still have one gripe though and that's heights remain fragile to the North!

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is saturday/sunday a possibility or more next week? seems like the Atlantic is heading south..

It all depends on how much the low will undercut and how quickly
It's an ever changing situation but Sunday is on my radar from a Cork pov:D

Small steps lead to big upgrades

jo06555

Ok im really confused I dont know a thing about charts but iv bein here keeping a eye for updates and yesterday it seemed southern eastern ireland was not getting the bad cold but today it seems this place has gone into meltdown !!! What has changed and if it changed so quickly im sure it could dissappear easily too??? And What are the chances of snow this weekend?

maquiladora

All aboard the low train. 4 for the price of 1.

JanuarySnowstor

Even out to 192hrs the undercutting continues.
The trend has been established tonight, all we need is the slightest of upgrades on the 00's and we are looking at large snowfalls.

Note: We are not there yet though and a mix of rain / wet snow could also happen!

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Even out to 192hrs the undercutting continues.
The trend has been established tonight, all we need is the slightest of upgrades on the 00's and we are looking at large snowfalls.

Note: We are not there yet though and a mix of rain / wet snow could also happen!

At least there is potential..i remain sceptical of any attack from the west especially down south but we'll wait and see.

hotwhiskey

1947



ECM



Interesting!

JanuarySnowstor

Last one for me on the 12's

The ECM is exactly what GP had predicted a few days ago i.e. low pressure becoming more and more dominant over Europe.
Follow his updates with great interest over on N-W

pistolpetes11

Heres Gerry !!!!!


Calls tonight a bust , possibly some sleet on higher ground

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

At least there is potential..i remain sceptical of any attack from the west especially down south but we'll wait and see.

Yes but if you take the ecm 12z at its word you and me may be in the right place afterall. I know uppers are high but thickness is perfect and the low is much further south now. in fact id be concerned it might miss us all to the south yet.....

icesnowfrost

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Heres Gerry !!!!!

Gerry. Dont like him telling the forecast

ninebeanrows

Mr Mild Murphy is going for rain Friday, perhaps Sleet

Game on! :P

munsterlegend

I think someone said last night you're better off waiting for the forecast after the 9pm news..takes into account the 12z model output. Did Gerry mention the 's' word?

JanuarySnowstor

Gerry's forecast was interesting tonight (interesting in how out of date it was)
Modelled on this mornings runs no doubt
I hate slagging off our own Met but I have to say, Better please!!

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think someone said last night you're better off waiting for the forecast after the 9pm news..takes into account the 12z model output. Did Gerry mention the 's' word?

Yes....sleet :-D

Pangea

Had bbc ni forecast and rte forecast on side by side.
Gerry no word of any snow for friday

BBC forecast

Sierra Oscar

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think someone said last night you're better off waiting for the forecast after the 9pm news..takes into account the 12z model output. Did Gerry mention the 's' word?

Yes he mentioned snow . . . but quickly followed by 'likely only on mountains' . . .

maquiladora

hotwhiskey wrote: »

1947



ECM



Interesting!

The difference is 1947 was very cold. Just not getting cold enough air at the moment to take advantage of those southerly dropping lows. I think that would be mostly rain here if that came off.

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Yes....sleet :-D

Oh well its a start of the upgrades...a lot of uncertainty at this range so no point creating any frenzy unless this is showing within T48.

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think someone said last night you're better off waiting for the forecast after the 9pm news..takes into account the 12z model output. Did Gerry mention the 's' word?

Barely he mentioned sleet really.

JanuarySnowstor

Pangea wrote: »

Had bbc ni forecast and rte forecast on side by side.
Gerry no word of any snow for friday

BBC forecast

I know who I'd sooner have on board too!!!!!

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

The difference is 1947 was very cold. Just not getting cold enough air at the moment to take advantage of those southerly dropping lows. I think that would be mostly rain here if that came off.

We are going to be getting a cold feed off the UK.

I wouldn't be too concerned about 850hpa temps, i think we can get snow at even -2c at this level if we get the right precip intensity and feed coming off a subzero UK.

- but yes ECM 120hrs would prob be cold rain if that exact chart materialised.

ThreeLineWhip

What are the chances for snow in the midlands?

Rebelbrowser

Weathercheck wrote: »

We are going to be getting a cold feed off the UK.

I wouldn't be too concerned about 850hpa temps, i think we can get snow at even -2c at this level if we get the right precip intensity and feed coming off a subzero UK.

- but yes ECM 120hrs would prob be cold rain if that exact chart materialised.

Agree. it will start as rain no doubt but then it could get very interesting

jo06555

Ok whats the precentage of some snowfall in south east as it stands???