LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

I don't see much snow risk on Sunday from the 12Z ECM apart from in the NE. Looks super marginal though.

I suspect there will be a lot of changes between now and then anyway based on how things have been going.

stephenjmcd

so what is this 2 steps forward and one back ??

Harps

Gone a bit crazy here in the past few hours

ECMWF upper temps never drop lower than -4C anywhere in the country until 240h with no sign of anything other than cool westerlies and passing lows. Potential for upgrades and all that but when's the last time there wasn't 'potential' in the charts?

maquiladora

stephenjmcd wrote: »

so what is this 2 steps forward and one back ??

I think in terms of the bigger picture its all steps forward at the moment. In the short term, the models change a bit every time and its those small changes that will make the difference between rain and snow. Wait till Thursday and we'll see how thinsg look for Friday onwards then.

munsterlegend

Harps wrote: »

Gone a bit crazy here in the past few hours

ECMWF upper temps never drop lower than -4C anywhere in the country until 240h with no sign of anything other than cool westerlies and passing lows. Potential for upgrades and all that but when's the last time there wasn't 'potential' in the charts?

Reality bites!

Speak Now

jo06555 wrote: »

Ok whats the precentage of some snowfall in south east as it stands???

As it stands close to 0%

hotwhiskey

Harps wrote: »

Gone a bit crazy here in the past few hours

ECMWF upper temps never drop lower than -4C anywhere in the country until 240h with no sign of anything other than cool westerlies and passing lows. Potential for upgrades and all that but when's the last time there wasn't 'potential' in the charts?

MT

I would rate the chances of significant snow and cold before mid-February at about 80 to 90 per cent -- the GFS 12z run looks colder the further out it goes to 16d and precision at that time scale is poor so with only slight changes we could start to see some definite, nowhere near marginal synoptics. I expect the eventual outcome will be 2-4 weeks of cold on a scale similar to late 2010 and other epic periods in the past. Just seems to be close to inevitable as the Atlantic jet is clearly starting to sink towards a much lower track than it took most of December. Key will be when higher pressures in the 1035-50 mb range start to appear in western Russia as this will intensify the battleground scenario already in place and give the cold air the upper hand. Meanwhile even by Sunday or Monday we could be looking at snow if some models are right, awaiting the 12z ECM with interest as it showed a lot of potential although just on the rain side of the tipping point (for Sunday) on the 00z run. So far other model trend is south of its track. Would point to events around 24-27 Jan as the breaking point for this pattern and a stronger cold air mass forming in Scandinavia. Would not rule out a 2-3 day mild spell as a necessity for pattern reload and to clear the Atlantic of residual warmth.

jo06555

munsterlegend wrote: »

Reality bites!

Taught so

BLIZZARD7

Harps wrote: »

Gone a bit crazy here in the past few hours

ECMWF upper temps never drop lower than -4C anywhere in the country until 240h with no sign of anything other than cool westerlies and passing lows. Potential for upgrades and all that but when's the last time there wasn't 'potential' in the charts?

Do you want to show some charts with these "cool westerlies" so we can see where you are coming from?



Dan

Eastcoastryan

Harps wrote: »

Gone a bit crazy here in the past few hours

ECMWF upper temps never drop lower than -4C anywhere in the country until 240h with no sign of anything other than cool westerlies and passing lows. Potential for upgrades and all that but when's the last time there wasn't 'potential' in the charts?

BBC Weather reckon there is "Potential"

Deep Easterly

I know it is off topic, but have to admit I am in bad need of a good oul Atlantic storm with raging winds and lightning flashing in the night sky out towards the Atlantic and as it should be at this time of year. Whatever about any potential for snow over the next week or so, what I don't like is how very slack and mediocre the synoptics are looking in and around Ireland for the foreseeable. This winter is turning out to be everything that I dreaded would happen.

pistolpetes11

Harps wrote: »

Gone a bit crazy here in the past few hours

ECMWF upper temps never drop lower than -4C anywhere in the country until 240h with no sign of anything other than cool westerlies and passing lows. Potential for upgrades and all that but when's the last time there wasn't 'potential' in the charts?

You have been terribly downbeat in here the last couple of times you posted , check the script , this is the RAMPING thread !

There is more variables at play here than just uppers

Graupel

Have a feeling the 00zs will leave a lot of people happy here in the morning.

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

Gone a bit crazy here in the past few hours

ECMWF upper temps never drop lower than -4C anywhere in the country until 240h with no sign of anything other than cool westerlies and passing lows. Potential for upgrades and all that but when's the last time there wasn't 'potential' in the charts?

2 days ago the GFS was showing this for Sunday. Look at all the energy going northeast. Mild southwesteries blasting in.



And if you moving forward a week to see if there might be some potential in FI, it was even milder.



Today's GFS for Sunday. High pressure to our north. The Jetstream taking energy southeast. UK and Europe still cold.



And if you look ahead a week. No blowtorch. Jetstream taking everything south. Still snowing in UK where there and Europe would be struggling to get max temps above freezing.



The bigger picture looks much, much better at the moment.

Bejubby

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I know it is off topic, but have to admit I am in bad need of a good oul Atlantic storm with raging winds and lightning flashing in the night sky out towards the Atlantic and as it should be at this time of year. Whatever about any potential for snow over the next week or so, what I don't like is how very slack and mediocre the synoptics are looking in and around Ireland for the foreseeable. This winter is turning out to be everything that I dreaded would happen.

Its ok,this is the calm before the snowstorm!

jamo2oo9

288hrs chart looks truly majestic! Seeing a wee purple patch over the Irish Sea near my hometown

maquiladora

The Met Eireann forecast outlook sums up the medium term pretty well I think.

Outlook

General: The boundary between the cold air to the east and the milder air in the near Atlantic will stay close to Ireland for the coming week. Weather fronts will move in from the Atlantic from time to time, with precipitation mostly falling as rain. However, during the weekend, winds are likely to turn easterly, increasing the risk of snow and severe frost at night.

ninebeanrows

Excellent ECM Ensembles it must be said.

Can't complain with them at all!

Friday's possible event is very much a case of 50 miles here or there.

Won't be able to know for sure till closer to the time!

Leinsterr

Can someone tell me, yes or no, will it snow at all in Dublin tonight until Sunday

Speak Now

Leinsterr wrote: »

Can someone tell me, yes or no, will it snow at all in Dublin tonight until Sunday

no

BLIZZARD7

Leinsterr wrote: »

Can someone tell me, yes or no, will it snow at all in Dublin tonight until Sunday

No, Nobody is able tell you the correct answer to that with any confidence.





Dan

Rougies

Yes, great potential from the latest ECM run for the weekend and beyond.

I'm very nervous though. This next 10 days or so could end up being an absolute snowfest for Britain, the best in many years, while we get absolutely nothing And we all know that's even worse than both of us getting nothing!

Although in saying that there's a small chance we could end up in the better position and steal all their snow. But I'd be perfectly happy with a 50/50 split. Actually, I'd even take a 20/80 .. just please not anything lower than 10/90!!!

I'm only highlighting the closeness of the situation as shown by the models as of now, in case anyone gets the wrong idea. It could still go any way.

Harps

maquiladora wrote: »

The bigger picture looks much, much better at the moment.

Agreed, its just that as usual the potential for any real event is next week, Friday looks like rain or sleet for all but the NE, still a chance for upgrades but upgrades and snow tend not to go together in this country! An interesting one to keep watch over at least

Not trying to be negative or anything, as soon as I see something that looks like it might actually deliver then I'll jump aboard but it's just hard too be overly positive when everything interesting is always 5 days away

stephenjmcd

Just wondering with the uk met giving a snow warning for Friday that covers the east coast, at this point what forecast do we go with met e or met office uk. Most people I speak to seem to always trust uk mo before met e

Dead_Rabbits

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just wondering with the uk met giving a snow warning for Friday that covers the east coast, at this point what forecast do we go with met e or met office uk. Most people I speak to seem to always trust uk mo before met e

I go with Met E forecast but keep up to date myself with the UKMO/ECM models, if living near the border I would in my case check the Newry forecast.

oterra

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just wondering with the uk met giving a snow warning for Friday that covers the east coast, at this point what forecast do we go with met e or met office uk. Most people I speak to seem to always trust uk mo before met e

Met E without a doubt! They have been spot on up til now!

Rougies

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Hopefully mild Gerry M wont be in the next ME forecast.

"That Jerry Murphy's full of sh!t man"

-Lloyd

He will

I think he gets an undeserved bad rep around here. But I suppose we need to choose a villain in our met line up to keep things entertaining
Booooo Gerry! Hail Queen Evelyn!

Dead_Rabbits

RTE/MetE will not confirm snow anyway until Jean is standing with a snow ball in her hands! Hang tight!

Villain

The models are all over the place I think their forecasts within 48 hrs have been pretty good, beyond that at time is difficult but this week it has been impossible.

pistolpetes11

Bloody Gerry Again , oooo

Sleet was the first word out of his mouth this time !