LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

whitebriar

Pangea wrote: »

That was a short week whitebriar :P

What can I say,my life runs on the chinese model

gerrybhoy

Newbie and helluva long term lurker here and a very snow obssessed one at that,fair play to you all for the updates and the models,which i have no idea what the hell they mean despite reading all the guidelines:D

Anyways come on mother nature give us a bit of snow,my wee fella went and got his snow suit and wellies Sunday when the snow was chucking it down,so come on some more for the weekend please:D

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

+132. Is that slider low scenario going to develop? Not looking as good?

No. The jet profile is worse on this run.

JanuarySnowstor

18z not great
Atlantic is bossing it in this run
Might be cold but Easterly influence less

JanuarySnowstor

Oh dear even our best friend is returning on this run, the dreaded azores high

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

No. The jet profile is worse on this run.

Yip, its moved alot nearer to us compared to the 12Z.

kingshankly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would rate the chances of significant snow and cold before mid-February at about 80 to 90 per cent -- the GFS 12z run looks colder the further out it goes to 16d and precision at that time scale is poor so with only slight changes we could start to see some definite, nowhere near marginal synoptics. I expect the eventual outcome will be 2-4 weeks of cold on a scale similar to late 2010 and other epic periods in the past. Just seems to be close to inevitable as the Atlantic jet is clearly starting to sink towards a much lower track than it took most of December. Key will be when higher pressures in the 1035-50 mb range start to appear in western Russia as this will intensify the battleground scenario already in place and give the cold air the upper hand. Meanwhile even by Sunday or Monday we could be looking at snow if some models are right, awaiting the 12z ECM with interest as it showed a lot of potential although just on the rain side of the tipping point (for Sunday) on the 00z run. So far other model trend is south of its track. Would point to events around 24-27 Jan as the breaking point for this pattern and a stronger cold air mass forming in Scandinavia. Would not rule out a 2-3 day mild spell as a necessity for pattern reload and to clear the Atlantic of residual warmth.

Hope your better at probability than the Donegal postman who said there was a 99% chance of substantial snow before xmas

Villain

I'll take +120 pls

maquiladora

18Z. Missing balloon data! No need to panic.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z. Missing balloon data! No need to panic.

Chocolate teapot sure ! :pac:

Mr Cumulonimbus

A bit of a trainwreck at +168. Previously mentioned Azores High being a pest..............

chilipepper

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Newbie and helluva long term lurker here and a very snow obssessed one at that,fair play to you all for the updates and the models,which i have no idea what the hell they mean despite reading all the guidelines:D

Anyways come on mother nature give us a bit of snow,my wee fella went and got his snow suit and wellies Sunday when the snow was chucking it down,so come on some more for the weekend please:D

welcome to the roller coaster, strap yourself in and enjoy the ride.

maquiladora

Look at Canada and America. Even Northern Florida has better uppers than us.

ninebeanrows

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

A bit of a trainwreck at +168. Previously mentioned Azores High being a pest..............

It's the 18z GFS Think i'd prefer my tea leaves than the 18z GFS.

gerrybhoy

chilipepper wrote: »

welcome to the roller coaster, strap yourself in and enjoy the ride.

Brilliant it is,affecting my work (no issues there) and also have my misses browsing checking for the white stuff,actually getting obsessed with it:o:D

Being a jock folk would think im sick of snow,but being here for nigh on 13 years ye miss the old snow:cool:

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z. Missing balloon data! No need to panic.

Short term upgrades are more accurate without balloon data though. And then the 00z upgrades them again, and sorts out FI too. Right?

John.Icy

Didn't think the 18z was much good for the weekend myself tbh. Takes forever for 850's to get to even -5 and precip won't last forever! Yes you don't need very low uppers in these situations, but they'd make it a heck of a lot easier!

All depends on windflow by Friday/Saturday. The more easterly tilt we get the better, will feed in colder uppers and not just have them trickle in on a SSE feed as per this run.

Have a bad feeling about it in terms of looking for laying snow. And tbh, sleet and slush can take a hike to Gerry's house, rather have rain than sleet!

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Look at Canada and America. Even Northern Florida has better uppers than us.

Bloody embarassing alright. If I'm reading that right there are -12 uppers reaching into the state of Georgia!!!

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Bloody embarassing alright. If I'm reading that right there are -12 uppers reaching into the state of Georgia!!!

There is a big black hole of -32 uppers creeping into New England in FI. Marginal.

gabeeg

By 192h England suffer a brief flicker of +2 uppers.

I know it's way too far into FI to take seriously.
But still. It's something to hope for.

maquiladora

After a slight delay, things get going around 300 hours.

Mr Cumulonimbus

BOOOOOOOMMMM!!!!!! -12's over the SE at +324??!!!!

BEASTERLY

amdgilmore

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

BOOOOOOOMMMM!!!!!! -12's over the SE at +324??!!!!

Even as somebody who knows nothing about weather charts, I know this is meaningless!

I never understood until I looked at this thread just how unreliable weather forecasting is.

BEASTERLY

Ill bank the FI on this run!

Mr Cumulonimbus

amdgilmore wrote: »

Even as somebody who knows nothing about weather charts, I know this is meaningless!

I never understood until I looked at this thread just how unreliable weather forecasting is.

Join the fun!! Its actually the temperature at around 1,500 metres up in the atmosphere. Means it would still be darn cold down at the surface!

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ill bank the FI on this run!

A nice 40 hours of snowfall at the end of the run to make up for things earlier. :rolleyes:

You really do see everything and anything on the GFS sometimes.

I think the 0Z will be more consistent with the 12Z.

mickger844posts

Upgrades downgrades and fretting over individual runs can be very tiresome and time wasting. The models have been all over the place the last few weeks so 72 hrs is FI in my opinion.We have very cold air on our doorstep and it won't take too much to push it in our direction. The Atlantic is not the boss and won't be for the foreseeable future. Keep the faith people and we will get our fix of the white stuff in the next few weeks.

Mirror Image

The weather channel on the Wii says snow on Wednesday,Friday and Sunday. Not jumping to any conclusions, but...

Mr Cumulonimbus

Overall an interesting run. On the serious side, an improvement for the chances of possible snow around Saturday, with the comedians gaining control over the GFS mainframe out into deep FI!!