LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Reckless Abandonment

Good sign for Sunday ME are saying rain

kenmc

not even a bloody frost overnight d14 :mad:

carltonleon

Went to bed and the car was under a good frost here in Swords.
Woke up, looked out the window and nothing... No frost, it was completley gone not even a hint of anything frosty.... Boo Hoo Hoo

derekon

Carol Kirkwood just gave the 7.20am weather forecast on the BBC.

They have major concerns for Britain come Friday. It is shown under a blanket of white that day as an Atlantic front hits.

Oh, don't worry about Ireland, we are shown as under a sea of blue (rain) as the precipitation only turns to snow as it hits Britain. You could not write it. :mad:

D

DOCARCH

derekon wrote: »

Oh, don't worry about Ireland, we are shown as under a sea of blue (rain) as the precipitation only turns to snow as it hits Britain.

If the latest GFS run was to verify, it would start as rain here, on Friday, but the front tilts and turns increasingly to snow on Saturday over Ireland...

...If

Reckless Abandonment

I'm very surprised the word potential isn't in the ME forecast... the way the models are chopping and changing and the difference a 100 miles could make surely every outcome is on the table ...

ninebeanrows

painful short term 0z, looks like some parts of Wales and western UK going to get deep deep snow.

We are well in rain territory, a case of 50/80 miles too far west.

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

painful short term 0z, looks like some parts of Wales and western UK going to get deep deep snow.

We are well in rain territory, a case of 50/80 miles too far west.

From what I can see, that's just in the short term/initially - starts as rain but gets better after that.

ninebeanrows

just to highlight we still pull back the cold Sat with rain turning to snow in places.


right now thurs and much of fri are likely to be less cool.


current models prog near foot of snow for Wales

BLIZZARD7

Yea surprised there is no mention of the possibility of sleet/snow overnight friday and into saturday as that is clearly shown on the models today...





Dan

Dead_Rabbits

Well in all seriousness if Met E screw up and Ireland gets plastered in snow without forewarning their will be alot of extremely unhappy bunnies out there. If we are near an epic event Met E don't want to do a Michael Fish!

DOCARCH

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

Well in all seriousness if Met E screw up and Ireland gets plastered in snow without forewarning their will be alot of extremely unhappy bunnies out there. If we are near an epic event Met E don't want to do a Michael Fish!

Honestly, I would expect that forecast to change (again) later this morning.

DOCARCH

The Eagle on radio at 7.55 : Rain! :eek: WTF

Reckless Abandonment

Dew points could be a problem on Sunday as the precip crosses over the country..

pad199207

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Eagle on radio at 7.55 : Rain! :eek: WTF

That's why I couldn't listen to it , I knew that was coming !

But il tell ye something , be Jesus if I don't see snow this weekend , I'll do everything in my power to stop that snow from reaching uk !

Dead_Rabbits

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Eagle on radio at 7.55 : Rain! :eek: WTF

If it is Rain so be it but it better be the last for a few weeks because we cant be sitting on the marginal all the way through these models!

Larbre34

Having looked at everything I think MetE are right, snow is most unlikely from that precip in the conditions at least before Sunday. Its not just marginal, Ireland IS the bloody margin

Dead_Rabbits

Larbre34 wrote: »

Having looked at everything I think MetE are right, snow is most unlikely from that precip in the conditions at least before Sunday. Its not just marginal, Ireland IS the bloody margin

Its really cutting it thin at the moment so best not get to hyped until we get to Friday. But if Met E screw this up it will be an ostrich sized egg stuck to their faces!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

Its really cutting it thin at the moment so best not get to hyped until we get to Friday. But if Met E screw this up it will be an ostrich sized egg stuck to their faces!

They can only go by what the models say now though, I don't envy them at the moment, horrible time to be forecasting

Dead_Rabbits

t|nt|n wrote: »

They can only go by what the models say now though, I don't envy them at the moment, horrible time to be forecasting

Thats were good forecasting skill should come in lets see ho good they are :P

Speak Now

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Eagle on radio at 7.55 : Rain! :eek: WTF

Went out 5 days and not even a mention of sleet, that Gerry Murphy must have been ramping the "Sleet" last night :pac:

DOCARCH

t|nt|n wrote: »

They can only go by what the models say now though, I don't envy them at the moment, horrible time to be forecasting

They are probably right...based on current models...but I would rather they do a bit of hopecasting too!

I'd really like some snow!!!

BLIZZARD7

DOCARCH wrote: »

They are probably right...based on current models...but I would rather they do a bit of hopecasting too!

I'd really like some snow!!!

Uppers of -6C to -8C look good for snow on saturday to me? *on GFS* As long as other factors play ball.





Dan

Tom Cruises Left Nut

DOCARCH wrote: »

They are probably right...based on current models...but I would rather they do a bit of hopecasting too!

I'd really like some snow!!!

It's coming ! I expect some big changes coming the next few days. The event hasn't even shown up yet !

ninebeanrows

the latest ECM gives me reason to believe the chance a snow event Friday/Sat is still a very live prospect. Lots of disagreement with exact orientation of frontal approach, ~40% of EPS members would give snow to some areas of north Leinster and north/eastern NI

- probably more than 40%

munsterlegend

This is a ramping thread so I must remain positive! As MT said we need a shift south by over a 100 miles for this weekend. Friday looks a write off unless major changes starting from today. I am slightly worried that MT believes next week won't bring much potential for snow given there isn't a bigger push west of the colder air..

ninebeanrows

munsterlegend wrote: »

This is a ramping thread so I must remain positive! As MT said we need a shift south by over a 100 miles for this weekend. Friday looks a write off unless major changes starting from today. I am slightly worried that MT believes next week won't bring much potential for snow given there isn't a bigger push west of the colder air..

I would not totally write off Friday yet.


Can still see fair chance of rain turning to heavy snow in some parts.

ninebeanrows

Let us compare the ECM OP at T72hrs to the overall ECM EPS MEAN

We can see the mean is much better with the orientation of the T850 -5c line.

Dead_Rabbits

Hopefully all this marginal talk will be out the window if we can get some of that cold over Russia over us in another two weeks or so. Then all our concerns hoping snow will be outweighed with praying for Spring

ninebeanrows

The ECM EPS mean T850 temperature for Dublin stays pretty much below -5c from T72hrs to T216hrs