LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

The ECM EPS mean T850 temperature for Dublin stays pretty much below -5c from T72hrs to T216hrs

The changes are certainly coming, now to be patient :pac:

Dead_Rabbits

t|nt|n wrote: »

The changes are certainly coming, now to be patient :pac:

Something to help being through this transitional period!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueJisPpkzpY

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

Can still see fair chance of rain turning to heavy snow in some parts.

Generally my thoughts too.

munsterlegend

From my reading of the models the ECM/UKMO are generally very positive for cold for our shores bu the GFS less so?

I think the east and north certainly should have high hopes for wintry precipitation. I am surprised that Met Eireann haven't even included the potential for anything wintry in their forecast this morning.

Dead_Rabbits

GP over on Netweather

Good agreement between ECM and GFS ensemble means at day 10 pattern. Remaining cold throughout that period with high risk of snowfall.

Thereafter, the modelling remains keen on the draining of the pv lobe over Hudson Bay within a general eastward moving longwave trough exiting the North American seaboard. So the question is posed, where does that energy go ? South-east into Europe where there is an existing trough and block of cold air to the north, or more NE allowing for a pressure rise over Europe ?

Given we already have a trough in place and cold block, allied to the 2nd wave of downwelling into the troposphere from this major midwinter warming of the stratosphere, I suspect cold intensifying is the favoured solution. Look NE

We really do need to be keeping an eye out now towards the NE because that's where the mother-load will eventually have to come from.

whitebriar

DOCARCH wrote: »

Generally my thoughts too.

Not my thoughts based on a hunch really.
Comparable events had weeks of snow cover prior in the UK eg jan 82
This one needs the neg dewpoints and won't get them below 1000ft

That's how it looks to me right now,always a chance it will change slightly but this will be a win for the Atlantic as it stands and given the cold/warm mixing a lot of heavy rain.


Anyhow,I'll try this one as my last post for a while again on this.
Time for the proper cold to either shoite or get off the pot.

Will post again in a week (says he hopefully entering an attempted model break again)

gbee

My iPhone has an upgrade, but not much for the next few days, sleet for Sunday and wintry showers for Monday, otherwise the word starting with r.

Redsunset

Why are people surprised at Met Éireann's forecast for rain on Friday. The forecast is sound. It is rain. Snow Not happening folks. Heavy rain all the way.

Rooy

As much as I am loving all the ramping on the thread and the potential on the charts , it is hard to ignore the fact it is mild outside and the ME forecast for the next 5 days ! , always seems to be a week away to the big event....

DOCARCH

Rooy wrote: »

....always seems to be a week away to the big event....

That is common alright - everything good, 19 out of 20 times, is always a week away! :pac:

ME are forecasting. A lot in here (me included) are hopecasting.

LoadofCROC

Met eireann have NO mention of sleet, ice or (god forbid) snow in their outlook for wkend actually it's like a forecast for different country compared to most other weather charts and forecasts? Why is this?

maquiladora

The way I see it, just going by the 0Z GFS alone (which may be wrong), the snow chances for places in Ireland would be from Saturday to Tuesday, not so much Friday.

All of those chances could easily downgrade to rain too. Anyway, 06Z rolling out.

leahyl

LoadofCROC wrote: »

Met eireann have NO mention of sleet, ice or (god forbid) snow in their outlook for wkend actually it's like a forecast for different country compared to most other weather charts and forecasts? Why is this?

Because we're not going to get snow? :pac:

Redsunset

I know it's the ramping thread and all but yes there is some serious hopecasting in here and there is nothing wrong in hoping but don't be getting all devastated just yet. Imbrace the rain for now. Our day will come.

LoadofCROC

leahyl wrote: »

Because we're not going to get snow? :pac:

....I'm thinking so too!

200motels

I don't think we're going to get any snow down here, as said above it's being pushed out all the time, it will go on and on and at this rate we'll be talking about snow in May. MT said that in December we'll get a cold blast late December or early January now it's late January early February, next it will be late February or early March, I know it's very hard to predict and MT is one of the best at it but he's wrong more than he's right.

maquiladora

East meets West. At 66 hours, 528 dam air from Europe and North America connect over Ireland.

Slashermcguirk

Though it may well rain, do bear in mind that forecasts are changing every day as it is. Every update has brought something new, who is to say it won't change again. The weather models and forecasts have been all over the shop so anything could happen at this rate. Nothing would surprise me

Elmer Blooker

LoadofCROC wrote: »

Met eireann have NO mention of sleet, ice or (god forbid) snow in their outlook for wkend actually it's like a forecast for different country compared to most other weather charts and forecasts? Why is this?

Because we're too far west to tap into cold in winter or heat in summer - in other words our climate is modified by the Atlantic Ocean.
We may be near the UK geographically but climatically we're light years apart.
At this very moment we are 10-15c warmer than Eastern England.
I remember a few summers ago I had visitors from London staying with me, in London it was 30c and here it was rainy and 14c, they were very amused when I had the stove lit when they arrived.
WARNING: watching Sky News or BBC News this weekend could seriously damage your health.

maquiladora

06Z still showing rain turning to snow possible in the northeast/east Saturday.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

FI is what is interesting me at the moment, hoping for some eye candy !

LoadofCROC

2010 Snowfest was the beginning of an addiction for many...when shall we get our next fix of the white stuff??

Problem123456

Redsunset wrote: »

I know it's the ramping thread and all but yes there is some serious hopecasting in here and there is nothing wrong in hoping but don't be getting all devastated just yet. Imbrace the rain for now. Our day will come.

On I don't think it will
We seem to be 50 miles to far west every bloody time...

maquiladora

GFS again showing rain turning to snow in places as cold air pushes in from the west Sunday night / Monday morning.

irish1967

maquiladora

-6 uppers and 520 dam air pushing in from the west.



The result :



Whats all the moaning about? Models still giving us a chance at the moment.

Problem123456

maquiladora wrote: »

Whats all the moaning about? Models still giving us a chance at the moment.

Because we have been here 20 times and then everything gets downgraded to rain.

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

-6 uppers and 520 dam air pushing in from the west.

surely that's quite unusual? Have you ever seen anything like it before?

nice to see the jet so far south

arctictree

GFS 06z t+138 is a cracker for snow:

maquiladora

Problem123456 wrote: »

Because we have been here 20 times and then everything gets downgraded to rain.

Well, I never thought there was much of a chance of anything before this weekend anyway. Of course it could still get downgraded but there's time enough to moan about it if/when that happens I think. :P