LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

pistolpetes11

:eek:

I dont hold these type of chart with much weight but for people writing off the winter already

Larbre34

fontenoy7 wrote: »

Get a grip!! If it snows in South West England you can be sure it will snow in the east and North of Ireland.

I've been watching this as I'm off to Exeter via Bristol on Friday and the updated forecast is for no snow for SW England, UK Met have revised weekend temps for Devon from 1/2C yesterday to 6/7 today.

All I'm expecting there is damp, cool and breezy and likewise for Ireland, with some potential in Ulster for a bit of whiteness. The pivot of that marginal point will be somewhere in the English midlands, anywhere east and north of that arcing back across Scotland is the wintry potential now

I'll give the UK met office in Exeter everyone's best regards shall I?

Spindle

Inquitus wrote: »

It's grey and raining!

I was referring to the models, not what the current weather.

I think the 2010 event skewed peoples ideas of what winter should be. If you are very young you may never have experienced it, but late January, the month of February and early March are the months we would more normally expect snow. Most of my best snowmen were built in late February.

December is the month for cold crisp dry conditions,but rarely does it bring good snow fall. 2010 was different due to the sheer depth of cold, and with the difference between air temps and SST it drove convection and caused the streamers that dropped snow along the East.

There is a a huge amount of cold out there, if the UK gets a good snow cover in place this will start feeding back into the atmosphere (something which I am not sure models take into account??) We then have the possibility of -4 uppers moving in from the West, making for interesting mixing, what it makes. Snow/cold rain/sleet, who knows.

Sit back relax and enjoy the model output, you might be waiting a long time to see these sorts of outputs again.

With me being in Cork I don't care much for Easterlies only to get cold in place for the Atlantic push to give some good battle ground snow fall.

Dead_Rabbits

shes going to be a slippery ride

BEASTERLY wrote: »

... :eek:

:pac:

Min

Stick with me, this post is a snow ramp.

I hate the idea of a lot of snow, I don't want it, but I don't know why some here think there will be no snow or the winter is somehow over...if only...

It is only the middle of January, there is a long way to go yet, I have no doubt we will see snow, well I will at least, I am sure of it, in my view we have been lucky so far, for snow lovers it would be unlucky so far, the thing is things can reverse quite easily, I see a lot of potential for snow and for cold.
Unfortunately for me I don't see much potential in the near term for milder weather, I will be surprised if we don't get snow.
For people who want snow - don't get your hopes up high based on a weather outside the reliable timeframe, you can hope but realistic that a number of days in advance is unreliable in these situations where temperatures are marginal for snow.
For those who don't want snow, just hope your worst fears aren't realised :pac:

jo06555

Ok think its time for my coat these charts are only a tease they never seem to be right only getting peoples hopes up so il assume winter is over and if anything changes il come back for a look after met eireann give a warning of snow but from the vibe here this morning it wont be happening..

Min

Larbre34 wrote: »

I've been watching this as I'm off to Exeter via Bristol on Friday and the updated forecast is for no snow for SW England, UK Met have revised weekend temps for Devon from 1/2C yesterday to 6/7 today.

All I'm expecting there is damp, cool and breezy and likewise for Ireland, with some potential in Ulster for a bit of whiteness. The pivot of that marginal point will be somewhere in the English midlands, anywhere east and north of that arcing back across Scotland is the wintry potential now

I'll give the UK met office in Exeter everyone's best regards shall I?

Bristol looks to be under an orange weather alert for Friday - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=3

dopolahpec

fontenoy7 wrote: »

Get a grip!! If it snows in South West England you can be sure it will snow in the east and North of Ireland.

An absurd statement

fontenoy7

I was in Lille in northern France over the Christmas Period. It rained for most of that period with temperatures a bit higher than Dublin.

This morning however it was -9 in but the temperature has since risen to 0. It also snowed quite a lot since monday but Paris has zero snow but cold.

Deank

jo06555 wrote: »

Ok think its time for my coat these charts are only a tease they never seem to be right only getting peoples hopes up so il assume winter is over and if anything changes il come back for a look after met eireann give a warning of snow but from the vibe here this morning it wont be happening..

Winter is only starting, as mentioned by a lot of previous posters most of our historical large snow falls have happened in Jan, Feb and early March.

With the split in the Polar vortex and SSW there is far to much cold weather in mainland Europe / UK and out in the Atlantic with fronts pushing down from Greenland for us not to get some sort of snow event, how big / epic it will be only time and patience will tell.:D

Dead_Rabbits

This winter is like a boxing match between the Polar Vortex and the SSW, we are into the seventh round and the PV has had the crap knocked out of it and is on its last legs! We are just waiting for the knock out blow!

Larbre34

Min wrote: »

Bristol looks to be under an orange weather alert for Friday - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=3

It does indeed, but they're a bit of a scatter gun. Given its geographical location and the probable location of the marginal zone from my own assessment I'm not expecting to arrive in a winter wonderland, maybe some mixing at upper levels.

Although now that it occurs to me, I see Bristol airport is at 190m elevation, could be interesting, hmmmmmm,

Tabnabs

Ladies and gentlemen please, this is the ramping thread!

It may end badly, but we will see some snow!

dacogawa

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Do people even read posts in here

Anywho, I'm not stepping off anytime soon.


*Its just a ride

So who's hopping on the 3:30 ? wheee!

dopolahpec

Tabnabs wrote: »

Ladies and gentlemen please, this is the ramping thread!

It may end badly, but we will see some snow!

It may be the ramping thread, but it has also become the only live thread, so that's why it's getting the positive and negative.

Don't mind me, my brain has just flipped out from looking at models for a month. But I just don't feel the potential. We are a good bit away from a proper reload, GFS pulled away again this morning, so the cold snap has materialised but has stalled east of us. I wish it was different, but I groan every time I see another GFS phantom purple snow accumulation graphic posted for 5 days time. It's not 5 days ago they were being posted for this very day. In fact some hopecaster set up an incident thread for tuesday night/wednesday morning I think. Busted flush after busted flush.

Last post until 4pm from me...

Conrach

Just tiddling about on Netweather. (as you do) Anyhoo, it has has my postcode down for 80% risk of snow on Saturday from 18.00 until midnight. Then 68% from Midnight until 3am

That is the first I have seen NW forecast any snow for my postcode this winter.

ninebeanrows

Folks you need to see the bigger picture.

Firstly the 6z is not to be followed!

The ECM EPS is brilliant.

The outlook is brilliant, now Friday may not quite work for us, but it still has a ~30% chance of being a real snowfest in the northeast.

But there is a HIGH chance of snow as we move into Saturday morning as we get the flow back and then we should keep the cold in through Sunday and see another attack on Sunday with a risk of snow.

Then the longer term outlook in to next week is for this to stay very cold and potentially snow.

The outlook this morning very good.

Ignore the Met E morning forecast, this weekend is going to be cold and snowy for many particularly in the northeast and east.

Friday's risk is still a live threat.

Ignore the 6z GFS, follow the 12z runs.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

Folks you need to see the bigger picture.

Firstly the 6z is not to be followed!

The ECM EPS is brilliant.

The outlook is brilliant, now Friday may not quite work for us, but it still has a ~30% chance of being a real snowfest in the northeast.

But there is a HIGH chance of snow as we move into Saturday morning as we get the flow back and then we should keep the cold in through Sunday and see another attack on Sunday with a risk of snow.

Then the longer term outlook in to next week is for this to stay very cold and potentially snow.

The outlook this morning very good.

Ignore the Met E morning forecast, this weekend is going to be cold and snowy for many particularly in the northeast and east.

Friday's risk is still a live threat.

Ignore the 6z GFS, follow the 12z runs.

I would also point people back to MT's "inevitible" comments on the thread, exciting times ! :pac:

Graupel

Hmmm people do get their knickers in a twist around here, Late jan early february has always been the date progged that we might see something significant. MT posted one of the most upbeat updates I've seen from him just last night but now that's completely forgotten about because were on the wrong side of marginal for a storm this weekend.

You all need to screw your heads back on, We never were on the right side of marginal and all the "snow events" that have been hyped up around here the last few weeks have been nothing to get the least bit excited over.

Listen to redsunset about the SSW, Listen to MT about his LRF and don't be getting downbeat over situations we were never likely to get anything from.

We are well on track, The cold is coming.

Larbre34

Fair play Weathercheck, looking forward to the 12z with interest!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I mean look at this ECM chart, Gfs you can feck off ! :pac:

decies

Looking forward to clear skies and hopefully no snow .


BANNED FOR TROLLING, also your only back form a weeks ban, go again and I will be forwarding to you to a site admin for a site ban

Elmer Blooker

I can even see a let down for the UK looking at this chart, any snowfalls over the weekend could easily thaw and be quickly washed away by rain.
(excluding Scotland perhaps?)
Me a begrudger? Me envious? Never! I wouldn't know how!:eek:

monkeybutter

Granted it may be cold, but is there any moisture there to fall as snow when it's say -8?

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I can even see a let down for the UK looking at this chart, any snowfalls over the weekend could easily thaw and be quickly washed away by rain.
(excluding Scotland perhaps?)
Me a begrudger? Me envious? Never! I wouldn't know how!:eek:

Heights starting to build over Greenland there too ?

gabeeg

I realise the low that's due to arrive from our west is unpredictable at best, but if we were to see something akin to the ECM chart below, how would it manifest itself in terms of a wind and precipitation event?

Are those lows common enough (970ish)?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

So, anyone any predictions for the 12zs ?

dermiek

decies wrote: »

Looking forward to clear skies and hopefully no snow .


BANNED FOR TROLLING, also your only back form a weeks ban, go again and I will be forwarding to you to a site admin for a site ban

:pac:

fontenoy7

dermiek wrote: »

:pac:[/Quot

Definite heavy sleet falling now in D. 15 and temperature of 3 degrees.

cyclops999

t|nt|n wrote: »

So, anyone any predictions for the 12zs ?

I think that I have a better chance of catching the jogger in the ME intro than I have of seeing snow .