LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Elmer Blooker

Pangea wrote: »

Met UKs long range forecast is not showing any signs of a winter wonderland.

......... but it was last week. :rolleyes: Ignore these daft long range forecasts.
Did the past week not teach us all a lesson?

leahyl

Caff Caff wrote: »

Your grandchildren will also be left waiting... unless they move from Cork!

:mad:....:pac:

Pangea

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

......... but it was last week. :rolleyes: Ignore these daft long range forecasts.
Did the past week not teach us all a lesson?

Still, better to have signs of a winter wonderland than none at all. :cool:

Elmer Blooker

WARNING: outrageous ramp coming up.
Look closely at that line forming west of the Isle of Man.
Nothing on radar.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

DOCARCH

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

WARNING: outrageous ramp coming up.
Look closely at that line forming west of the Isle of Man.
Nothing on radar.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

* Looks for clutching at straws photo *

Can see an IOM shadow forming but honestly pressure is probably too high for anything to occur other than maybe the very lightest of flurries.

There was actually showers earlier this morning - or at least they showed up on radar over south Dublin and north Wicklow - but, I suspect they evaporated before reaching the ground.

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

WARNING: outrageous ramp coming up.
Look closely at that line forming west of the Isle of Man.
Nothing on radar.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Pressure is too high, dew point is positive, 850 temps aren't cold enough.

Outrageous is right! :pac:

Rasmus

maquiladora wrote: »

Pressure is too high, dew point is positive, 850 temps aren't cold enough.

Outrageous is right! :pac:

So why is met.ie etc saying otherwise?

Green Diesel

Rasmus wrote: »

So why is met.ie etc saying otherwise?

Snow / sleet isn't mentioned on met.ie until late Thursday

Rasmus

Green Diesel wrote: »

Snow / sleet isn't mentioned on met.ie until late Thursday

I thought we were talking about Thursday and Friday?

Green Diesel

Rasmus wrote: »

I thought we were talking about Thursday and Friday?

In general that's where are hopes are, but Elmer Blooker posted a link to clouds forming right now in the Irish Sea.

Fianna Fowl

maquiladora wrote: »

This brought 4ft snow drifts to Waterford. Give me something like. :P

How are these historic charts generated? Do they collate known data from multiple random sources and back forecast? The UK met was formed in 1854 but I thought it just got information from coastal stations, no sea buoys and I can’t imagine there was too much data being collected at this time in Northern Canada, Greenland or Iceland. Apologies for all the questions, and the completely off topic nature of it!

maquiladora

Fianna Fowl wrote: »

How are these historic charts generated? Do they collate known data from multiple random sources and back forecast? The UK met was formed in 1854 but I thought it just got information from coastal stations, no sea buoys and I can’t imagine there was too much data being collected at this time in Northern Canada, Greenland or Iceland. Apologies for all the questions, and the completely off topic nature of it!

NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis V2 (20CR): 1871-2010

The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CRv2) dataset contains global weather conditions and their uncertainty in six hour intervals from the year 1871 to 2010. Surface and sea level pressure observations are combined with a short-term forecast from an ensemble of integrations of an NCEP numerical weather prediction model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter technique to produce an estimate of the complete state of the atmosphere, and the uncertainty in that estimate. The uncertainty is approximately inversely proportional to the density of observations. Additional observations and a newer version of the NCEP model that includes time-varying CO2 concentrations, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols are used in version 2.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/

Villain

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

dermiek

Villain wrote: »

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

WOO HOO!!!!



:pac:

Rasmus

Villain wrote: »

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

What a misleading headline! We can edit that down to 'possibility of snow this winter'.

Green Diesel

Villain wrote: »

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

And now when no snow happens, and it's not a white Christmas, people will blame Met éireann!

The danger of mentioning the s-word in a 5-day forecast.

Sponge Bob

The cold pool in Eastern Europe stretches right down to the Med almost, certainly as far as Belgrade which will hardly break zero this week.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/LYBE/2012/12/10/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

snaps

Villain wrote: »

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

have to laugh, it says -3c. My in laws in southern Poland have it -15c at night and not less much during day and you have to struggle to see it making the news there.

whitebriar

Villain wrote: »

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

Its also the 3rd item on east coast FM news at the moment and no doubt other independent stations.
They even mentioned 'the beast from the east' :eek:
A lot of snow bunnies may be very disappointed.

On a side note,good to see east and central Europe cool down so quickly as if we ever get surface air from there,we'll know all about it.

On a a serious note,one unfortunate effect of Atlantic weather coming up against a cold block that's just about not cold enough for snow is enhanced rain and flooding sadly.

Villain

Yup flooding is a lot more likely than snow, poor reporting from the Indo

pistolpetes11

Driving through the Curragh this afternoon its pretty strange to see so much standing water , the water table must be extremely high right now and I would quite worried for folks in areas prone to flooding if this low does end up stalling over us,

howlinwolf

yeah i drive through the curragh quite a bit and there is a lot of standing water in the fields ( some quite large) and they havent really decreased in size over the last week even though there hasnt been a lot of rain.... it seems the groung has taken all it can

hope the rain doesnt hang around long and just pushes through the cold air and on into britian.

Larbre34

Villain wrote: »

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

All the newspapers are as bad as each other this year for the 'garbage in-garbage out' approach to the press releases of private weather services. It wouldn't occur to them to check the veracity of the reports. If they even read the UK Met outlook to end December updated today they would see the cold prediction for Britain has even been downgraded by those who (apparently) know best. Even casually throwing in references to 2010 is enough to perturb vulnerable people, they shouldn't be so careless.

Realistically for the next 3 weeks we are looking at average to cool weather patterns will occasional milder interludes. Marginal conditions for wintry precip at elevation, unexceptional wet and windy spells. In other words, no need to freak anybody out just yet.

Storm 10

According to the UK Met the cold snap is not now going to happen as it will move away and should not be a problem


http://news.sky.com/story/1023229/beast-from-east-uk-spared-siberian-blast

Tindie

whitebriar wrote: »

BBC forecast,just now by Darren Brett had full confidence of the Atlantic system currently lurking west of us sweeping right across the UK and out into the north sea by Friday, that's in 96 hrs and eliminates any uncertainty compared to yesterday's view.
Some hill snow briefly but temps into double figures by day in the wake of the fronts.

That's better from a flooding point of view as those fronts hanging round Ireland for a few days is exactly what we don't want.

I saw that early and I gutted, Wet and Windy, see that almost everyday of year

I wanted the white stuff

Rasmus

Storm 10 wrote: »

According to the UK Met the cold snap is not now going to happen as it will move away and should not be a problem


http://news.sky.com/story/1023229/beast-from-east-uk-spared-siberian-blast

Dam, I was excited despite the fact it would be a treacherous commute!! : (

icesnowfrost

Do u no the way you guys are always saying the models change from day to day hour to hour. Can they not change In favour of the cold to win over the mild and bucket down the snow we are all hoping for this week

Larbre34

snaps wrote: »

Where's all this rubbish in the Irish papers coming from today about Siberian weather coming from Wednesday? Thought this was when it was going to change milder?

Its just utter irresponsibility on the part of the newspapers both here and UK copying and pasting releases from BWS and the like. They're all at it and its lazy and amateurish.

mike65

Villain wrote: »

Good god:

http://www.independent.ie/weather/white-christmas-on-the-cards-as-freezing-december-and-january-predicted-3322816.html

It is reported that freezing weather conditions could plummet to temperatures as low as -6C, which could signal an unwelcome return to the snow horrors experienced during our 2009 and 2010 winters.

Jim Dale of British Weather Services has predicted that prolonged freezing conditions from Russia will hit Britain and Ireland and conditions will only get worse for the rest of December and January.

“Last winter only had small intrusions of cold, this winter we think it is closer to 2010,” said Mr Dale.

“All the signals we've got point to continental Siberian influence and we can start talking about December and potentially January being very cold months and seeing protracted cold and snow.”

Seriously these people need a sun dial shoving where the sun don't shine!

Nabber

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Do u no the way you guys are always saying the models change from day to day hour to hour. Can they not change In favour of the cold to win over the mild and bucket down the snow we are all hoping for this week

It's not predicted to be mild It's going to be windy, wet and cold

I would take mild over that any day.

This would be more likely for us than cold Easterlies. If I was a betting man I would say the west will win over the east. But there is a chance it could change. It's weather after all, a prediction is not a guarantee.